It's all speculation, of course. But the GoR constraints are inarguably blocking any moves that schools may possibly wish to make. That doesn't mean there is no desire among Big 12 teams to change conferences.

The good health of the Big 12 is generally referenced in the present tense. When the current GoR and media deals expire, the value gap between Big 12 content and B1G content may be substantial. Once again, I admit that this is speculation.

When UMCP made their stealth move to the B1G, all of the Maryland stakeholders were caught offguard. Change is never popular. A move like this must exclude as many stakeholders as possible in order to avoid the predictable outcry, law suits and "occupy" movements. The deal will be made and contracts signed berore anyone knows what happened. I sometimes wonder if these moves have already been discussed and decided among the teams in question and their suitors. (That would likely violate conference bylaws, but who knows?)