I like where you’re taking the conversation. Conference expansion is a business decision. So can we stop talking about Navy. If you think a Saturday afternoon in Annapolis is a "good time", by all means, head on over there. They don't need to be in our conference for you to enjoy a game there.
dave, my formula is close to yours: Brands (including fans), Markets (including fans), and Academics. The B1G track record is instructive. They added Penn State, which brought Brand, Markets, and Academics. That's as good as it gets. Next was Nebraska, a great brand, national market, a pretty good academics. Their last move was another winner, neither Maryland nor Rutgers provides a "brand," but both delivered huge markets and impressive academics. The B1G is on a roll.
Brand simply means that they are widely recognized and celebrated for their success at the game of college football (or MBB). "Brand" brings a team fans from everywhere in the US. Television networks love, and will pay for Brands. Notre Dame is the ultimate Brand.
Markets are complicated so first I'll dispose of Academics. We all know that the Presidents want to be pals with other Presidents from top tier academic institutions. They believe this may enhance their respective schools endowments and research grants (will it?), and it will make them feel better about themselves. They don't always get what they want, and I think the ACC group held their collective noses when they admitted Louisville. The SEC, not known as a hotbed of elevated academic achievement, was rightfully proud to add AAU members Texas A&M and Missouri.
Markets matter in different ways. Can you exploit your local market with ticket sales and logo merchandise? In markets like Clemson, SC and Ames, IA they do that to the max. In large metro areas, cable carriage fees for the conference channel are a goldmine of revenue whether the local team has a strong following, or not. As long as the carriage fee racket is available to some conferences, the money there will dwarf the hard won dollars brought in by Clemson and ISU. Another element of Markets is the alumni diaspora. While only a small percentage of people in the NYC Tristate area care about B1G football, that small percentage represents a raw number greater than Clemson's local following. Where are all of a school's (conference's) alumni, and how many are there? Jim Delany has said that the B1G has untold multitudes of alums in NYC Metro, DC Metro, and yes, The Research Triangle.
That consideration of alumni population is what I would weigh most heavily when selecting the next ACC members. I found a website that listed the enrollment of the largest 300 colleges in the US. I screened out the P5 schools in spreadsheet and found what we already knew: The B1G has a huge enrollment advantage over the other conferences. But the extent to which that is true is daunting. Eleven of the B1G's 14 schools are in the top 25. The ACC places one, FSU, at #18. The bottom of the list is overwhelmingly populated by ACC schools. The ACC needs to add Central Florida and South Florida. These are gigantic schools with plenty of upside potential in their athletic departments. Tell me all the reasons this shouldn't happen. I'll listen. Heck, I'm all guesswork and pure speculation. But I think the ACC needs to invade Florida before the Big 12 does it. If ESPN advises against it, that's all the more reason to move ahead as quickly as possible. ESPN is a business that always acts in its own self-interest. That's appropriate. But that's why the ACC cannot rely on them to guide us.
But, but... that doesn't leave room for Notre Dame and Navy. After the B1G added PSU, they stood for 21 years (TWENTY ONE YEARS!!) at eleven members (ELEVEN!!) waiting for ND to acquiesce. Then they added Nebraska. Notre Dame has an informal conference for football. Southern Cal, Stanford, Miami, FSU. They also have Navy which is neither a "conference" game nor a rivalry. It is an annual charity event for the Naval Academy to thank them for their patronage during the last World War. Notre Dame is not joining a conference. They will always leave the door slightly ajar to string us (or whomever) along. They will always speak of "IF." ND aint comin', move on.