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Pylons

Joined: 08/25/2005 Posts: 18722
Likes: 8064

What's this?

I watch plenty


what you're describing is not "reverting to the mean"...the first half is not influencing the second...it's the simple fact that teams are more likely to shoot close to their historical average than far from it.

Why is the "half" a meaningful measurement period? Is the phenomenon true for 10 min periods? 40 mins? And what is "WAY" over/under? When does reversion happen vs. not?

Expecting some sort of pattern where future short-term observations depend on past short-term ones is simply misguided. Shooting far away from average for 20 mins doesn't serve to predict getting closer in the short term...didn't happen for UVa as you noted...didn't happen for VT against FSU either...we were well above average in the first half and got even more ridiculous in the second.

Predicting that VT will shoot 40% for a half is a good prediction whether they shot 70%, 40%, or 10% in the prior half. Do you really think 40% is more likely when the prior half was 70 or 10 than when it was 40?

Is there streaky shooting? Hot hand? If so, how does that square with mean reversion?

(In response to this post by The_Phew)

Posted: 02/15/2022 at 4:39PM


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  Hokies #2 in the nation in 3pt FG%... -- GCHokie34 02/15/2022 1:51PM
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  ^^^^^ KingOfNATTS ^^^^^ ** -- No_Limit_Hokie 02/15/2022 3:43PM
  Dude. They are good basketball teams. So is VT. None are great. ** -- Foxhall Hokie 02/15/2022 3:35PM
  Dude, I'm using the actual definition. Do you know what "good" -- King of Hokies 02/15/2022 3:43PM
  Dude, “desired” and “approved of” are subjective. -- marcbvtgm 02/15/2022 4:16PM
  Dude, "good" is subjective. And I'm not really concerned whether "most" -- King of Hokies 02/15/2022 4:26PM
  Dude! -- No_Limit_Hokie 02/15/2022 4:31PM
  Where’s my car??!!! ** -- Hokie535 02/16/2022 07:32AM
  Theyre good basketball teams... ** -- GCHokie34 02/15/2022 3:19PM
  I wonder if playing 5 games in 12 days has contributed … -- WV Gobbler 02/15/2022 2:03PM
  We struggle to shoot after long layoffs, need to be careful -- soflahokie 02/15/2022 2:14PM
  Could be, but they also had a long break last Monday from Syracuse... -- GCHokie34 02/15/2022 2:12PM
  Certainly could be tired legs but i'd argue more for law of averages -- VT Pez4Life 02/15/2022 2:10PM
  There is no such law ** -- Pylons 02/15/2022 2:23PM
  You must not watch much basketball -- The_Phew 02/15/2022 3:01PM
  I watch plenty -- Pylons 02/15/2022 4:39PM
  I mean technically sure but statisticallythings will fall back to the mean ** -- VT Pez4Life 02/15/2022 2:28PM
  That's not how sports work. There is no "mean" to "fall back to." -- King of Hokies 02/15/2022 3:17PM
  Means change though -- Pylons 02/15/2022 2:44PM
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  Many times when ball screen D breaks down -- GCHokie34 02/15/2022 2:09PM
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