What we know is, if you lock things down promptly and do all the right things, you quell the spread of the virus. This reduces deaths.

So if we've done all the right things and halt the spread of the virus, we will reduces the death toll.

If we don't, however, the death toll rises, probably astronomically.

But given the opposing viewpoints, there are four possible outcomes:

1. Don't implement lockdown, death toll exceeds that of the common flu
2. Don't implement lockdown, death toll is similar to that of the common flu or less
3. Implement lockdown, death toll still exceeds that of the common flu
4. Implement lockdown, death toll is similar to that of the common flu or less

It appears to me you are arguing for 2) based on economic concerns and your predicted outcome. I am arguing for 4).