Your hope for 80+ P4/5 programs comes from your sense of fairness. It is not fair that UConn, Cincy, Houston, etc. cannot crack the "P-barrier", while BC, Rutgers, etc. wallow in the P5 money bath. Sadly, fairness has left the building when it comes to college FB media rights. The P5 will become the P4 and there will probably be fewer than 60 schools. Some of the Big12 schools will fall away. ESPN/Fox/others don't want to pay P5 money to 80 teams. The G5/6/? will get smaller contracts because the TV money will be spent on the P4. The MAC saw the handwriting. They moved some games to weeknights just to secure a media contract. The other G conferences will suffer similar or worse indignities.
Before the ACC, SEC, and PAC renew their GoR, the B1G will negotiate another media deal. They may approach sixty million per school, barring any dramatic change in the lanscape. What current G5 school can earn their keep at that level? Who would the B1G be willing to add knowing they will pay the newbie $60,000,000? (Tx, OK, perhaps)
The only real question is: How many Big12 schools make the cut.