Saw earlier Jonathan Swann question what NATO’s actual Threshold of Atrocity is now, in terms of Ukr, given that Biden continues to say that a CBRNE attack is pending. The context was, at what point is NATO going to actually step in and do something?

I thought that was a novel concept (hadn’t heard it articulated like that before) so I just googled it and it appears that’s a pretty common concept to the point where Tufts research quantifies it as 5K deaths in a year (interesting).

Swann supposed that it would be either:
1. Use of CBRNE in Ukr (chem specifically)
2. Use of a small, tactical nuke
3. Transmissive cyber attacks that caused infrastructure failure in surrounding countries like Poland, which would trigger Article 5.

I just thought, though, that we really need a Threshold of Competency for our own country- I’m even more concerned now, given that Saudi and UAE, and now even Israel, have all overtly turned away from US SOI due to the govt pushing through the Iran nuke deal which currently includes amnesty for the IRGC- which is singularly responsible for at least 500-1000 dead Americans in Iraq.

And that’s just the latest concern. If Russia directly targets the U.S. with cyber attacks, are we going back to pipeline shutdowns or worse problems? As much as it sucks to pay insane prices at the pump, now more than ever does one need to keep the tank full. Extra bottled water, canned food. Jeez, buy the TP now…

Threshold articles:

https://sites.tufts.edu/atrocityendings/

https://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_etds/1836/

https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/about-us/Doc.3_Framework%20of%20Analysis%20for%20Atrocity%20Crimes_EN.pdf



[Post edited by reconhokie at 03/22/2022 8:26PM]