but I also feel this happening:

SEC adds just Oklahoma and Texas. (Sorry Aggies, there's no actual "gentleman's agreement" and your SEC brethren will betray you in a heartbeat) Texas will have to make HUGE concessions on revenue sharing and Longhorn Network, but clearly, they are prepared to do that. Their leverage is gone.

P12 elects to stand pat, for the reasons MB outlined. It's already a weak conference and diluting it further does nothing for the balance sheets.

B12 adds Houston and BYU, possibly UCF and Memphis, too. They try to hold it together for a couple of years but will eventually lose P5 status. I'd say the conference would dissolve, but the remaining members need a home and no one else really wants them.

B1G invites UVA-c and UNC who happily accept.

ACC maybe adds Cincinnati, but I still think WV gets left in the cold. Any other reasonable targets to replace UVA and UNC and/or get to 16 stretch the geography too thin and dilute the conference (see P12 above). However, if ACC foolishly says to hell with geography, I could see Kansas and Baylor getting invites.