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HokieAl

Joined: 10/07/1999 Posts: 15853
Likes: 4627

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That article makes a big assumption that skews the result


The article assumes a test accuracy of 90% for antibody positive results. It also does not differentiate between the inaccurate 10% (is that for a positive that is missed, or for a negative that is incorrectly shown as positive). Those are two very different outcomes and we know for a fact that the antibody tests have a higher accuracy rate in correctly determining if someone is a true negative (usually this negative testing is 99% accurate for the tests I've seen on the market).

So the whole argument about false positives is just not real. The accuracy of the tests being 90-95% is on whether they correctly identify those who are positive. For those who are negative, the tests are 99%+ accurate because they are designed to be sensitive.

(In response to this post by Stork)

Posted: 05/13/2020 at 11:24AM


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Current Thread:
 
  OK Math and Statistician types. Someone explain this antibody math. -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:10AM
  Simple statistical math -- `lag 05/13/2020 1:03PM
  That article makes a big assumption that skews the result -- HokieAl 05/13/2020 11:24AM
  Simple explanation I heard is that the immune system acts in two waves -- Hokie1992 05/13/2020 11:13AM
  There's a part of this article that isn't worded well, and it adds to.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:09AM
  Keep 80% of the curve below 45% of the peak. It takes a village people. -- MikeVT85 05/13/2020 10:55AM
  It sure takes a village.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:11AM
  Good examples of Base Rate Fallacy can be found on the Wiki site. -- Gadfly 05/13/2020 10:33AM
  Let's go through a simple example... -- BB Hokie 05/13/2020 10:27AM
  From the linked study, my interpretation -- HokieForever 05/13/2020 10:19AM
  I dunno...must be that new math they're teaching kids nowadays. ;-) ** -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:14AM
  Pay link. But yeah - I think there are still a number of questions about -- Hokie360 05/13/2020 10:13AM
  Quick recap says -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:15AM

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