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The statistical paradox occurs because the accuracy of the test was

determined, by scientific necessity, on a population having a high frequency of infection. By contrast, the science writers are describing the probability of a positive test result, which is a different indicator.

The probability of a positive test result is determined not only by the accuracy of the test but by the characteristics of the sampled population, i.e., high vs low incidence.

(In response to this post by vthokieq)

Posted: 05/13/2020 at 10:51AM

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Current Thread:

OK Math and Statistician types. Someone explain this antibody math. -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:10AM

Simple statistical math -- `lag 05/13/2020 1:03PM

That article makes a big assumption that skews the result -- HokieAl 05/13/2020 11:24AM

Simple explanation I heard is that the immune system acts in two waves -- Hokie1992 05/13/2020 11:13AM

There's a part of this article that isn't worded well, and it adds to.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:09AM

Keep 80% of the curve below 45% of the peak. It takes a village people. -- MikeVT85 05/13/2020 10:55AM

It sure takes a village.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:11AM

You take me too seriously. Appreciate the mental effort though. ** -- MikeVT85 05/13/2020 2:06PM

Good examples of Base Rate Fallacy can be found on the Wiki site. -- Gadfly 05/13/2020 10:33AM

Let's go through a simple example... -- BB Hokie 05/13/2020 10:27AM

From the linked study, my interpretation -- HokieForever 05/13/2020 10:19AM

I dunno...must be that new math they're teaching kids nowadays. ;-) ** -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:14AM

Pay link. But yeah - I think there are still a number of questions about -- Hokie360 05/13/2020 10:13AM

Quick recap says -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:15AM

Think of it like this. -- VTBB 05/13/2020 10:21AM

Beg to differ. You'll get ten false positives out of 100 folks PLUS the -- DonHo-kieHi 05/13/2020 11:18AM

That makes perfect sense, thank you! ** -- HokieJay 05/13/2020 10:59AM

Still doesn't make sense to me...how can you claim something... -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:25AM

It's how you are defining "accuracy" -- BB Hokie 05/13/2020 10:30AM

I define it as being "accurate". -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:33AM

The statistical paradox occurs because the accuracy of the test was -- Gadfly 05/13/2020 10:51AM

Right. It’s a paradox. Don’t know how to explain it any better than what I -- VTBB 05/13/2020 10:26AM