Right. It’s a paradox. Don’t know how to explain it any better than what I

said. You are just going to have a lot of people walking around thinking they are good who actually aren’t. But that’s assuming that the base rate is as low as they say.
[Post edited by VTBB at 05/13/2020 10:26AM]

In response to this post by vthokieq

Posted: 05/13/2020 at 10:26AM

OK Math and Statistician types. Someone explain this antibody math. -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:10AM

Simple statistical math -- `lag 05/13/2020 1:03PM

That article makes a big assumption that skews the result -- HokieAl 05/13/2020 11:24AM

Simple explanation I heard is that the immune system acts in two waves -- Hokie1992 05/13/2020 11:13AM

There's a part of this article that isn't worded well, and it adds to.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:09AM

Keep 80% of the curve below 45% of the peak. It takes a village people. -- MikeVT85 05/13/2020 10:55AM

It sure takes a village.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:11AM

You take me too seriously. Appreciate the mental effort though. ** -- MikeVT85 05/13/2020 2:06PM

Good examples of Base Rate Fallacy can be found on the Wiki site. -- Gadfly 05/13/2020 10:33AM

Let's go through a simple example... -- BB Hokie 05/13/2020 10:27AM

From the linked study, my interpretation -- HokieForever 05/13/2020 10:19AM

I dunno...must be that new math they're teaching kids nowadays. ;-) ** -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:14AM

Pay link. But yeah - I think there are still a number of questions about -- Hokie360 05/13/2020 10:13AM

Quick recap says -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:15AM

Think of it like this. -- VTBB 05/13/2020 10:21AM

Beg to differ. You'll get ten false positives out of 100 folks PLUS the -- DonHo-kieHi 05/13/2020 11:18AM

That makes perfect sense, thank you! ** -- HokieJay 05/13/2020 10:59AM

Still doesn't make sense to me...how can you claim something... -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:25AM

It's how you are defining "accuracy" -- BB Hokie 05/13/2020 10:30AM

I define it as being "accurate". -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:33AM

The statistical paradox occurs because the accuracy of the test was -- Gadfly 05/13/2020 10:51AM

Right. It’s a paradox. Don’t know how to explain it any better than what I -- VTBB 05/13/2020 10:26AM

Right. It’s a paradox. Don’t know how to explain it any better than what I

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