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Freddyburg Hokie

Joined: 10/07/1999 Posts: 36084
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There's a part of this article that isn't worded well, and it adds to....


the confusion, IM(ns)HO:

"The reason for this is a simple matter of statistics. The lower prevalence there is of a trait in a studied population — here, coronavirus infection — the more likely that a test will return a false positive. While a more accurate test will help, it can’t change the statistical reality when the base rate of infection is very low."

I really don't like the words "the more likely that a test will return a false positive", as they imply that the accuracy of any one test is reliant on the base rate of infection. It's not. The accuracy of the test doesn't change, it's just that the ratio of false positives to true positives changes based on the base rate of infection.

I would change the above words to "the more likely that any given positive result is a false positive".

And yes, Gadfly's link to Wikipedia has some great examples there.

(In response to this post by Stork)

Posted: 05/13/2020 at 11:09AM


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Current Thread:
 
  OK Math and Statistician types. Someone explain this antibody math. -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:10AM
  Simple statistical math -- `lag 05/13/2020 1:03PM
  That article makes a big assumption that skews the result -- HokieAl 05/13/2020 11:24AM
  Simple explanation I heard is that the immune system acts in two waves -- Hokie1992 05/13/2020 11:13AM
  There's a part of this article that isn't worded well, and it adds to.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:09AM
  Keep 80% of the curve below 45% of the peak. It takes a village people. -- MikeVT85 05/13/2020 10:55AM
  It sure takes a village.... -- Freddyburg Hokie 05/13/2020 11:11AM
  Good examples of Base Rate Fallacy can be found on the Wiki site. -- Gadfly 05/13/2020 10:33AM
  Let's go through a simple example... -- BB Hokie 05/13/2020 10:27AM
  From the linked study, my interpretation -- HokieForever 05/13/2020 10:19AM
  I dunno...must be that new math they're teaching kids nowadays. ;-) ** -- vthokieq 05/13/2020 10:14AM
  Pay link. But yeah - I think there are still a number of questions about -- Hokie360 05/13/2020 10:13AM
  Quick recap says -- Stork 05/13/2020 10:15AM

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