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HokieEngineer

Joined: 05/20/1999 Posts: 4509
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There are two points: (1) COVID is a serious disease (I don't want anyone


to claim I didn't say that) and (2) for young individuals, influenza (also a very serious illness) is worse. It's not until the age 25-34 bin that the number of deaths (over the same time period) cross. That includes the re-coding of non-confirmed but presumptive COVID deaths and the bungling of the COVID response in New York City which heavily skews the numbers.

We can also look in Virginia (although I can't find a source that doesn't require manual tallying). Since the Department of Health began tracking in mid-February, there have been 458 COVID deaths (presumed and presumptive). During that same period, there have been 1057 influenza/pneumonia deaths. (In the tracking, pneumonia is used as a proxy for influenza.) The social distancing measures have been effective in reducing the number of those deaths (from 87 in week 16 last year to 11 in week 16 this year).

Do the data support a prolonged shutdown given that we do not shutdown for influenza? In some areas (e.g. New York, Northern Virginia, Richmond) perhaps they do. In Virginia as a whole I think it is very clear they do not.

(In response to this post by AbsolutVT03)

Posted: 04/27/2020 at 09:45AM


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Current Thread:
 
  Covid stats - fatality rates -- GreenvilleVT 04/26/2020 7:19PM
  You think .64% of NYC dying is a stat that supports your argument here? -- Gobbler-100 04/26/2020 9:57PM
  Fatality rate in Nursing Homes much higher. Why hasn't any one put a -- UTPr0sim 04/26/2020 9:11PM
  Keep your arses home! Love my commute downtown! -- Hockey Dad 04/26/2020 8:18PM
  IT.IS.NOT.THE.FLU. Can we please stop this nonsense? It's at least as -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 7:59PM
  In one month . . . -- HokieRider 04/26/2020 9:23PM
  The LA and NYC studies show fatality rates less than 0.15% different than -- GreenvilleVT 04/26/2020 8:01PM
  I'm not talking studies. I'm talking actual numbers. Would you like to do -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 8:02PM
  OK. Let's look at Iceland. They've done a better job of testing than anyone -- HokieEngineer 04/26/2020 8:30PM
  The cruise ship numbers are actual. And that was -- GreenvilleVT 04/26/2020 8:07PM
  Again, the 50,000 dead is not estimates and much larger sample than the -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 8:13PM
  We get it. You're terrified. ** -- Teewinot 04/26/2020 8:17PM
  Way to avoid my point. Maybe try responding to that instead of childish -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 8:21PM
  You sound pretty terrified to me -- Teewinot 04/26/2020 8:23PM
  What can I say? Ignorance annoys me. You seem well versed in it. Would -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 8:26PM
  Stop being hysterical -- Teewinot 04/26/2020 8:32PM
  So the latter. Feel free to come back when you grow up and learn how to -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 8:36PM
  My god you are hopeless ** -- Teewinot 04/26/2020 8:38PM
  I'd say the same about you. Have a good one! ** -- AbsolutVT03 04/26/2020 8:46PM
  Good night and Go Hokies ** -- Teewinot 04/26/2020 8:49PM
  Yep it is just like the flu -- capitals1 04/26/2020 7:53PM
  I worry that is how people l just saw celebrating their new arrival. -- 1MetroHokie 04/26/2020 8:00PM
  This quarantine was a fear pandemic. Even Sweden’s rate was within a -- GreenvilleVT 04/26/2020 7:58PM
  Lol ** -- capitals1 04/26/2020 7:58PM
  Curious stat...what does that go to if your health system is overwhelmed? -- ElbertoHokie 04/26/2020 7:51PM

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