All Hokie, All the Time. Period. Presented by

The Lounge Board

HokieZig

Joined: 10/10/1999 Posts: 1268
Likes: 132

What's this?

Here is my math because a few things you are not considering


Typical flu kills 60K. But by CDC numbers, 60% of people over 65 get a vaccine. Of that, it is around 40 to 45% effective. Overall, over the age of 18, 37% of people get the vaccine. Typical death rate is 0.1%.

Now, with Covid-19, there is no vaccine. And if you believe the numbers, its 50K. Lets go with 50K. And lets go with a number of 8 million cases based on antibodies. This is going to be low because as Cuomo stated, antibody only tests if you had it a minimum of 3 weeks prior. You could easily double those numbers based on how much the cases increased over the last 3 weeks. That comes up with a death rate of 0.625%. Which is more than the flue. But remember, there is no vaccine, and Covid mainly kills people over 65 and those with a preexisting condition. Lets say there was a vaccine for Covid-19. How would affect the numbers. Well 95% of deaths are over the 65 and/or with major preexisting issue. But lets say its 90%., So 45K deaths from people over 65 or with preexisting condtion. Lets say 60% of those had a covid-19 vaccine, which would be lower than the typical flu. And out of that 50% affective. And 50% affective would be less then a covid-19 vaccine because we would know the strain. So we calculate 50K and multiply that by say 90%. That is 45K of people. Of that 27000 would have had the vaccine. And of that, it would have been effective to save 13500 people. Subtract that from 50K, and you come up theoretically 36500. Now divide 36500 by 8 million and you come up with .4% death rate. If the antibody test is low, you could divide 36500 by 16 million and get .22%

The last thing to consider, is with the flu, flu deaths are only counted if the flu caused the death. With Covid-19, they count deaths if it is possible Covid-19 caused the death. That is a huge difference. We won't know the difference between the 2 for a while but it will be a significant amount of people.

I will say, Covid-19 is more deadly with all things considered. But it will eventually be found that with all things considered equal, it will be between 1.1 to 4 times as deadly. Not the 50 to 100 times being reported.

(In response to this post by 81_Hokie)

Posted: 04/24/2020 at 10:39AM


+0

Insert a Link

Enter the title of the link here:


Enter the full web address of the link here -- include the "http://" part:


75
Hide This

Current Thread:
 
  Today’s COVID math. -- GreenvilleVT 04/23/2020 3:01PM
  Tests done across 40 locations/19 counties. Growing and unmistakeable -- ColoVT82 04/23/2020 4:10PM
  What we are quickly finding is that there are millions more that have had -- fordham 04/23/2020 3:06PM
  50k people have died -- VTSnake 04/23/2020 4:14PM
  Absolutely and totally disagree, and you only have the ability to say what -- vt_mughal 04/23/2020 4:01PM
  It's not like the only choices here are "catastrophic" or "no big deal." -- Tafkam Hokie 04/23/2020 3:39PM
  Wha?! -- vthokieq 04/23/2020 4:07PM
  Whoops. My mistake. -- Tafkam Hokie 04/23/2020 4:10PM
  Now we're talking! -- vthokieq 04/23/2020 4:20PM
  Wait, you're agreeing with me? -- Tafkam Hokie 04/23/2020 4:22PM
  I agree with that, the issue we have now is getting the restrictions lifted -- fordham 04/23/2020 3:56PM
  Totally agree. ** -- GobblerCE 04/23/2020 3:53PM
  Uhhh, show us your math please. Here's mine: -- 81_Hokie 04/23/2020 3:20PM
  COVID-19 killed more people in a few months than the flu did in a year. -- RhinoVT 04/23/2020 3:12PM
  The flu never overwhelmed national healthcare systems like this one has. ** -- TJ Hokie 04/23/2020 3:09PM
  Hospitals are running at 30% occupancy in most of the country right now. ** -- HokieJay 04/23/2020 4:22PM
  NYC and some in the NE were strained. The rest of the country has no s -- fordham 04/23/2020 3:18PM
  No strain on other hospital system...yet. it is still *very* early. ** -- TJ Hokie 04/23/2020 3:24PM
  THe rest of the country changed their lifestyle. ** -- 48zip 04/23/2020 3:21PM
  No, the gov. forced businesses to close ** -- fordham 04/23/2020 3:27PM
  You both just said the same thing -- Beerman 04/23/2020 3:53PM
  Name a hospital in America that has hit its capacity this month? -- GreenvilleVT 04/23/2020 3:12PM
  Elmhurst ** -- Flemington Hokie 04/25/2020 09:45AM
  Never hit capacity. -- GreenvilleVT 04/25/2020 10:35PM
  Search ICU full and you'll find many ** -- lchoro 04/23/2020 4:32PM
  Due in part to the effrots by all Americans, plus the fear of going to a -- 48zip 04/23/2020 3:18PM
  I fear you will see cancer and other diagnosis -- GreenvilleVT 04/23/2020 3:31PM
  Good point. -- HokieJay 04/23/2020 4:24PM
  Yep. That's already being predicted. ** -- 48zip 04/23/2020 3:36PM
  ^^ This ** -- TJ Hokie 04/23/2020 3:25PM
  And they never distanced like we're doing now. That rarely get's mentioned -- 48zip 04/23/2020 3:11PM

Tech Sideline is Presented By:

Our Sponsors








vm307