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What's this?

I don't think he's saying it's likely to just be a blip, just that it could

be a blip. And because of that "Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact."

His no big deal case relies on the assumption"that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected". I doubt anyone is taking that bet. I don't think he is when he says "The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have."

(In response to this post by beergutvt)

Posted: 03/18/2020 at 2:05PM

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Current Thread:

Good read on how stats on virus are being biased by extreme data sets. -- beergutvt 03/18/2020 1:09PM

The data point we have is that European hospitals are overflowing with -- 81_Hokie 03/18/2020 2:41PM

Italian social culture combined with the oldest population and bad system -- beergutvt 03/18/2020 5:22PM

Another data point, any vaccine is 18months out...4B doses even further. ** -- ColoVT82 03/18/2020 3:46PM

Uh folks, the economy is being killed as we watch. time to fessup... ** -- ColoVT82 03/18/2020 2:17PM

I don't think he's saying it's likely to just be a blip, just that it could -- jmanatVT 03/18/2020 2:05PM

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There may be fewer deaths since the institutionalized are being isolated -- lchoro 03/18/2020 2:04PM

My understanding is that COVID-19 is also highly infectious (2-3 times) -- Air-Ic 03/18/2020 1:48PM

He addresses that in the article ** -- HokieForever 03/18/2020 1:53PM

Meh, reads like it was written by a stats professor......oh wait -- MAHokie69 03/18/2020 1:33PM

Epidemiologist at Stanford ** -- HokieForever 03/18/2020 1:34PM

And stats -- MAHokie69 03/18/2020 1:39PM

So his links to other studies and the math don't add up, ok. ** -- HokieForever 03/18/2020 1:50PM

Is it common sense to look at this myopically only. What about the long -- Hoakie82 03/18/2020 1:49PM

All that is hypothetical and tough to prove. People sick/dying now is real. ** -- Hokie360 03/18/2020 1:53PM

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It was before as well, just wasn't a media story ** -- HokieForever 03/18/2020 1:54PM

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He is not saying the Diamond Princess is reliable data. And if he were -- jmanatVT 03/18/2020 2:08PM

They are converting one hospital here to just expected corona patients -- bigbadbird 03/18/2020 1:29PM

No they are being prepared! Safe then sorry ** -- beergutvt 03/18/2020 5:29PM

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Ioannidis makes a poor argument there. Here is the counterpoint... -- BB Hokie 03/18/2020 1:22PM

All I see is two epidemiologists disagreeing ** -- HokieForever 03/18/2020 1:31PM

If one reads exactly what they say. I think they agree on quite a bit: -- jmanatVT 03/18/2020 2:00PM

This is what I have learned, no matter how many times the lesson is -- HokieForever 03/18/2020 1:18PM