And that mean is typically going to be somewhere between 50% and whatever your overall win% is.

We are 1-5 in 1-run ACC games and 4-10 in 1-run games overall.

We are 7-14 in the ACC, so if you tell me 6 of those were 1-run games I would say that I would expect us to have won 2 or 3 of them. But given the sample size, obviously winning any number from 0 to 6 would not be crazy. Certainly 1-5 is not remotely surprising.

We are 17-23 overall, so if you tell me 14 of those were 1-run games I would say that I would expect us to have won about 6. Here again, winning 4 is not at all surprising and really only a little bit unlucky.

I'm not saying the team doesn't have problems. They do! They're losing ACC games by an average of almost 2 full runs per game which would, obviously, be historically bad if projected over a full MLB-type schedule. I'm just saying that the results in close games are, statistically speaking, not convincing evidence of any problems in particular (nor would they ever tend to be). The bullpen has been bad in close games...but they've probably been pretty bad in games that were not close, too. That's a big part of the reason why those games weren't close.

And, just, once again re clutch hitting: guys hit what they hit and slug what they slug, and RBIs and men LOB are basically just artifacts of opportunity and sequencing effects (i.e. luck). That's not to say somebody can't "come through in the clutch" or whatever in a given situation, but there's no reason to think that they will do that more or less often than they do in a "non-clutch" situation. There is no statistical evidence that clutch hitting is a thing. So, that's actual good news! One less thing to worry about. Now, we might be struggling with *situational* hitting (e.g. fly ball when you must have a fly ball, contact when can't have a strikeout, getting the runner from 2nd to 3rd, etc.), I don't know. It sounds like that is very possibly the case and maybe that's what you were talking about.