I mentioned a couple days ago that I had been saying 19 wins is the number for VT to look at wrt getting into the field. I understand the hesitation around that number and certainly 20 or 21 is better (and do-able) but ill explain my reasoning now that I had the weekend to type out my research...

In reality there are about 21 teams fighting for 11 spots. There are a few behind those 21 (such as St. Bonaventure) but theyre teams who dont match up favorably to VT as is and would need to win out to pass VT at 3-3 down the stretch

So here are the teams and who each team has the rest of the way (prior to conf tournaments)

Rutgers - pur, mich, wis, ind, psu

TCU - bay, WVU, tex, TX tech, ku, ku, wvu

Iowa State - ou, WVU, k st, oksu, bay

Loyola (IL) - drake, I'll st, Evan, n. Iowa

Indiana - ohio St, MD, minn, Rut, pur

San Francisco - pacific, gonz, SD

Oklahoma - Iowa st, tex tech, oksu, wvu, k st

Memphis - Smu, tem, wich st, USf, hou

UNC - VT, Lou, ncsu, syr, duke

Michigan - wisc, rut, I'll, mich st, Iowa, Osu

Creighton - marq, st John, prov, uconn, s hall

BYU - st Mary's, LMU, pepperdine

San Diego St - fres, Boise, sjsu, wy, fres, nev

SMU - mem, Tulsa, hou, cin, tulane

Oregon - Arizona, ucla, USc, wash, wsu

Dayton - st Joe's, UMass, Lasalle, rich, dav

Belmont - SIUE, Murray st, TN st

Florida - aub,ark, Uga, vandy, uk

Kansas State - oksu, ku, Iowa st, tex tech, ou

VT - UNC, GT, Mia, Lou, clem

UVA - Mia, duke, fsu, lou

So heres the conference breakdown of the teams involved...

ACC - 3
Big ten - 3
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Big east - 1
American - 2
A-10 - 1
MVC - 1
MWC - 1
WCC - 2
OVC - 1

I dont see any conference getting more than 2 teams in off the bubble, the Big 12 especially has a gauntlet to end their seasons. It would be hard to go better than .500 with their remaining schedule, which theyll need to do with very poor resumes to this point (Oklahoma is 2-9 in their last 11 games, Kansas State and OU only have 14 wins, iowa state and OU are both 4-9 in the conference a half game out of last place)

I also dont see the WCC or American getting both their bubble teams in...especially the WCC with how they protect Gonzaga in their conference tournament format

So that knocks out 6 of the 21 leaving it down to 15 teams vying for 11 spots. I mentioned VT would need to pass up 4 teams to get in the tournament and this is what I meant by that...if theyre 15th in this group (I dont think they are) then they need to pass 4 teams. In the same manner I dont see the Big 12 or Big 10 getting more than 2 in, I also dont see them getting less than 2. Someone has to come out of that glut...it wont be all of them and it wont be none of them.

It is also importance to note that the MVC and OVC are likely 1-bid leagues **UNLESS** Loyola-Chicago and Belmont win out, reach their conference championship and lose a close game then they could be in bid stealing territory. Since that isnt as likely as not doing so, Im leaving them out too.

So now we are down to 13 teams for 11 spots. So who are the likely victims of being passed by VT?

Watch out for these teams and root for them to do poorly in W-L, metrics, or both:

Florida
Oregon
Creighton
Dayton

VT needs to likely outplay 2 of these 4 to get into the tournament. Florida especially has a pretty tough road to get there. Oregon just lost by 20 at home, they have an absolute gauntlet 3 games coming up. Creighton has Providence and UConn left and a tough Big East Tournament, theyll need to win out if they lose both those games. Dayton, even with a win over VT doesnt have a strong metric resume, they have 3 Q4 losses.

If VT beats UNC you can add UNC to this list as well and VT would only need to outplay 2 of the 5. UNC alsp has 0 Q1 wins and a loss at VT keeps that number at 0.

So there you have it. There are about 5 teams who are susceptible to being passed and VT can get to 20 wins with a second round ACC Tourney win making the road even easier. So i wouldnt fret over the double bye. If VT gets a double bye then theyve already played themselves into the NCAA Tournament. If they don't get a double bye then they get an easier opponent to pad the win column.

Just win and theyll be fine