Interesting analysis

*** FY21 (estimates unless otherwise noted)
SEC: $54.6 million per school (official)
Big Ten: $43.7 million
Big 12: $34.5 million (official)
ACC: $29.4 million
Pac-12: $21.5 million

Assumptions: The Pac-12 estimate is based on revenue figures cited in FY21 NCAA financial reports from three schools (Cal, Utah and Colorado). Conference distributions vary incrementally by the school, depending on withholdings … The Big 12 announced its distribution totals for FY21 last spring. The amount represents a 9% year-over-year drop due to the pandemic and is the first year in which Tier Three rights have been pooled at the league level (for all schools except Texas and Oklahoma) … To estimate the pandemic hit for the ACC, we have used the same 9% drop experienced by the Big 12, because both leagues completed close-to-normal football seasons … The SEC figure has been updated from our original projection to reflect the official payout (announced Feb. 10). It does not include $23 million-per-campus COVID support payments from the conference office that are advances on future media rights deals.

*** FY22 (estimates)
Big Ten: $58.8 million per school
SEC: $58.7 million
Big 12: $40.8 million
Pac-12: $36.3 million
ACC: $34.9 million

Assumptions: The Hotline generally applies a 4% escalator to account for annual increases in media rights payments. The FY22 figures are based off what would have been a normal distribution amount for FY21.

*** FY23 (estimates)
Big Ten: $61.2 million
SEC: $61.0 million
Big 12: $42.4 million
ACC: $40.3 million
Pac-12: $37.8 million

Assumptions: FY23 will mark the first full year of ACC Network distribution on Comcast following a deal announced in Nov. ’21 — after the football season. Although the specifics of revenue increase is unknown, we have assigned a $4 million bump to each school’s distribution resulting from the added Comcast subscribers in the footprint. Generally speaking, each in-market cable home is worth about $1 per month to a conference network, and Xfinity has a massive presence in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Florida.

*** FY24 (estimates)
Big Ten: $86.9 million
SEC: $63.4 million
Big 12: $44.1 million
ACC: $41.9 million
Pac-12: $39.3 million

Assumptions: The Big Ten’s current media rights deal expires at the end of FY23, so the 2023 football season will be the first under a new agreement. To account what should be a whopping increase, we first assigned 70% of the annual conference distribution to direct media rights; the remaining 30% includes the fixed payments (for our purposes) from the College Football Playoff and the NCAA Tournament. We then increased the direct media rights valuation by 60% to account for new contracts. That figure split the difference between the increase in NFL media rights from its new agreements (80%) and the increase in MLB rights from its new deals (40%), plus the underlying assumption that football is more valuable than baseball — especially when you have the ratings machine known as Ohio State available 12 times a season. So in raw numbers: 70% of the FY23 distribution is $42.8 million. A 60% increase there becomes $68.5 million, plus the fixed indirect media rights (CFP and NCAAs) from the FY23 amount pushes the total to $86.9. Please note: We did not include a signing bonus that could be paid in FY24, nor did we account for a differential in new media money between Tier One partners and the Big Ten Network.

*** Totals FY21-FY24 (estimates)

Big Ten: $250.6 million
SEC: $237.7 million
Big 12: $161.8 million
ACC: $146.5 million
Pac-12: $134.9 million