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King of Hokies

Joined: 10/12/1999 Posts: 14939
Likes: 8048

What's this?

The word "should" is not an analytical term. So what it *literally means*


is that the sample set is a very poor fit for the distribution. The distribution is what is hypothesized, and the sample set is what is reality.

I know what I'm talking about here. The fact that Ken Pomeroy tried to explain the metric he calls "luck" to an average fan does not make it something it isn't. And the statistical inference cannot go backwards. Sample data implies a distribution. The distribution does not imply the data.

It's not hard to understand, but it's critical to understand it if you want to draw an inference. And you cannot draw a proper inference backwards. It causes you to reach wrong conclusions, which in this case you have.

(In response to this post by GCHokie34)

Posted: 01/20/2022 at 6:56PM


+4

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Current Thread:
 
  Pomeroy Luck Metric -- HokieDBA 01/20/2022 3:11PM
  Luck doesnt exist... -- GCHokie34 01/20/2022 4:25PM
  The Invisible Hand Guides All -- Newt 01/20/2022 7:10PM
  "A real man makes his own luck", Billy Zane, Titanic ** -- 6thStreetHokie 01/20/2022 5:58PM
  That's actually the wrong conclusion. It actually says that relying on the -- King of Hokies 01/20/2022 4:37PM
  What it literally says... -- GCHokie34 01/20/2022 6:16PM
  The word "should" is not an analytical term. So what it *literally means* -- King of Hokies 01/20/2022 6:56PM
  He actually has it literally exactly right. ** -- Gobbler-100 01/20/2022 11:37PM
  No, he literally doesn't. Quoting a website -- King of Hokies 01/21/2022 03:31AM
  But the metric does predict that VT's chances of winning any given game are -- johnmcd40 01/20/2022 5:42PM
  KenPom's explanation of Luck sounds like post game win expectancy -- 6thStreetHokie 01/20/2022 4:17PM
  The bottom line is that anyone who tries to analyze a basketball game or -- King of Hokies 01/20/2022 3:45PM

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