The backroom chatter, meaning the leaks meant to set the course in perspective says that Texas and Oklahoma leave on June 30, 2023. The chapter 1 teams come in the next day and in the 24-hour period the Big-12 goes from 10 teams to 12. As for the chapter 2 teams, Bob Bowlsby and the committee is on record to move to 16 based on the future conventional format for a conference. It had been hoped to bring them in July 1, 2024 but the window to do that without a premium charge for exit from their current conferences ended on November 30, 2021. That does not mean that it stalls the movement, just that it comes down to paying more.

The future of the Big-12 is to move to 16.

Boise state and BYU are travel partners and to keep at least one team nearby so that no one is on an island.

The same scenario is there for South Florida and UCF.

The addition of SMU and Memphis was more strategic than tactical. Both are assumed to be able to be more than they are. SMU helps to lock down the Dallas side of the metroplex with TCU holding down the FW side. Memphis brings the east division to 8 teams by filling the gap in the geography.

All of the chapter 2 candidates had some issues. Boise State had a president that wanted the Pac-12, but was rebuffed early on. South Florida has had an interim coach that kept them from negotiating in a conventional fashion. Memphis had an outgoing president that did not want to speak for a new one and SMU was not sure they wanted to step up.

I do not think there will be a Big-12 where Texas and Oklahoma are playing any of the new members.