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jmanatVT

Joined: 01/17/2008 Posts: 6583
Likes: 1850

What's this?

I don't think anyone who is serious is surprised to find out it's logistic


I don't know if it's the journalist of Dr. Levitt, but quite a bit of this is silly.

The Imperial College did not "[rely] on a presumption of continued exponential growth". Look at the chart of predicted deaths per day which is the first derivative of the total number of deaths. It has a peak. That is an inflection point or "some kind of break." This indicates that they knew what was obvious to anyone who has taken a single course in statistics, the curve is logistic. What may be interesting is that this guy thinks the inflection point is at 2 weeks versus much further out. But there isn't some fundamental mathematical error.

(In response to this post by HokieForever)

Posted: 05/07/2020 at 11:09AM


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Current Thread:
 
  Nobel Prize Winner Shutdown Unnecessary -- HokieForever 05/07/2020 10:38AM
  You can find more folks saying similar. ** -- ColoVT82 05/07/2020 1:35PM
  It says it was exponential and then became sub-exponential -- lchoro 05/07/2020 11:37AM
  He said the lockdown wasn't a factor -- EDGEMAN 05/07/2020 2:39PM
  He is stating it became sub exponential prior to lockdown -- HokieForever 05/07/2020 11:39AM
  I had a problem with the word "exponential" from the git-go -- `lag 05/07/2020 11:35AM
  Exponential or not. The fact remains that hospitals in many countries -- TJ Hokie 05/07/2020 11:34AM
  Spain and Italy's hospitals are overwhelmed on a normal day ** -- Vienna_Hokie 05/07/2020 11:58AM
  Citation Needed. ** -- jmanatVT 05/07/2020 12:51PM
  Talk to anyone that's ever lived in either ** -- Vienna_Hokie 05/07/2020 1:50PM
  You can find people in any country with that gripe. ** -- jmanatVT 05/07/2020 1:52PM
  I don't think anyone who is serious is surprised to find out it's logistic -- jmanatVT 05/07/2020 11:09AM
  But but I took math in schools - I know more than these 'experts' ** -- FfxStationHokie 05/07/2020 11:20AM
  And more -- jmanatVT 05/07/2020 11:11AM
  Ridiculous on its face. He seriously accept China's data of 3250 deaths -- 81_Hokie 05/07/2020 11:08AM
  LOL yep only stat he used ** -- HokieForever 05/07/2020 11:22AM
  There were a lot of different approaches by many counties. -- GreenvilleVT 05/07/2020 10:59AM
  I've heard about these incentives a lot... -- MP4VT2004 05/07/2020 12:26PM
  Can't find any other link, but the info here is what was stated -- HokieForever 05/07/2020 1:42PM
  Thanks...now I understand better. -- MP4VT2004 05/07/2020 2:24PM
  Welp I'm convinced ** -- FfxStationHokie 05/07/2020 10:57AM
  Read it the other day..great article -- hookie 05/07/2020 10:42AM

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