what is "safe" is open question., du jour...

circumstances have changed quite a bit over the past 30+ days here and across the world. Other things have NOT changed, like availability of a safe, effective vaccine.

I hope some of you heard Dr Birx dodge the question yesterday about the recent antibody test results - a couple in Ca, one out side boston iirc. Add those to results from germanys antibody testing and 2 things are evident 1) it is much more widespread than originally thought and 2) the fatality rate is much lower than previously thought given the indicated infection amount. Stanford and LA studies suggest possibly 50x times lower or more.

Incomplete? Yep. Yet, the common theme between them, and across regions and continents cant easily be dismissed out of hand.

Then, there is yesterdays oil debacle. At one point price of a barrel of oil in may futures contract was around -$40. I wasnt quite sure at the time, but i am now. This was the first time a negative # was allowed in a commodity exchange.

Ok, so what you ask. Well, lets pretend you are an investor (please dont play in the commodity markets unless you know what your doing, go with energy etfs if you must). Up until yesterday, the worst possible day you could have with ANY commodity investment was at a price of zero. That is, if you placed a $10,000 bet on the table, the worst you could lose was all of it. Now, you lose more than your original bet. That is troubling. Very. If this leaches into other marketswell, im not even going to go there.

Reason i bring that up is that is yet another canary in the coal mine wrt the economic costs associated with lockdowns. To those that might posit " well, why dont they just shut off the oil wells for awhile?" I would respond it aint a trivial thing to shut them off and, oh by the way, once you try to turn them back on oil may not come a flowing.

At the start of this mess, we saw Kirkland home in wash state. It indicated there was a real vector in those type communities that support older folks. The cruise ships also pointed to asymptomatic carriers and spread, as well as higher levels of immunity than suspected (earlier pop spread) - it was the case of the 2 cabin mates who were together for several weeks on the cruise pre quaranteen and post that ended up with one very sick and one not at all that was very telling. We need to ring fence elder care communities as a minimum going forward. I wish TPTB did so way back then. That would have saved 30% or more of the deaths. Hindsight is 20/20, ofc

Recently, testing (and tracing) has become the new magic bullet until the vaccine shows up. I asked a few simple questions yesterday regarding this topic. Not to say "its bad", just to dig into "how might that work"? 1) do you test everyone in the usa everyday before they leave the home? 2) if not, why not and then how often. What is the basis for not daily testing? 3) how do you or your employer know if youve done your test, and the results? 4) given we are told SD is key, how does one do contact tracing while you are on the bus/subway/metro/airport, etc?

Again, im just asking execution questions

As public policy struggles through these choices, we cannot wreck the economy. Hospitals/healthcare need an economy to exist.

Coming back to what is safe? Nothing is ever 100% safe. We all know that. What is an acceptable risk? That varies. If you personally dont feel safe, no one should feel compelled to leave their home.