Virginia Tech Basketball Hosts Hot NC State In Saturday Evening ACC Clash

Virginia Tech men’s basketball (11-4, 1-3 ACC) enters Saturday evening’s contest with NC State (12-4, 2-3 ACC) riding a three-game losing streak. It’s a 7:30 p.m. ET game on RSN in Cassell Coliseum; Evan Lepler and Brian Oliver are on the call. 

The Hokies haven’t been able to get over the hump recently, falling in close contests with Wake Forest and Clemson. At the same time, the Wolfpack has won four of its last five games, including a 24-point win over Duke on Wednesday.

Saturday will be NC State’s fifth Quadrant 1 game of the year after losses to Kansas, Miami and Clemson, along with the recent Duke victory. All four losses were to teams currently in the top-65 of the NET.

Virginia Tech has won four of the last five matchups, including a 62-59 victory on the road last January. Mike Young is 2-1 against Kevin Keatts & Co.; the lone loss was in Blacksburg on Jan. 4, 2022. Still, the Wolfpack leads the all-time series by a wide margin, 41-19.

Last time out against NC State, it took two clutch free throws from then-freshman Sean Pedulla to seal Tech’s win. Yet, the Hokies weren’t great in either January meeting, turning it over 27 combined times. They also blew a double-digit lead in both instances, barely holding on in Raleigh.

Young said Rodney Rice and Hunter Cattoor, both of whom were game-time decisions vs. Clemson, had “setbacks” that prevented them from playing on Wednesday night. It’s unclear whether they’ll see action against the Wolfpack.

NC State

In early November, Tech Sideline split the conference in half and published two previews of the teams around the ACC. Here’s the synopsis for NC State:

Terquavion Smith highlights the NC State roster ahead of Kevin Keatts’ sixth season in Raleigh. Though the Wolfpack struggled for most of last year, they took Virginia Tech to the wire both times. The Hokies lost by five in Blacksburg and needed some clutch free throws from Sean Pedulla down the stretch to escape in Raleigh. Casey Morsell and Ebenezer Dowuona are back as well, but NC State’s 2022 recruiting class was the second-lowest in the conference, only ahead of Georgia Tech. Instead, Keatts & Co. hit the transfer portal. Dusan Mahorcic (Utah), Jarkel Joiner (Ole Miss), Jack Clark (La Salle) and DJ Burns (Winthrop) are solid additions that could give this group a lift. How much, though? We’ll find out on Jan. 7 when the Hokies get the Wolfpack at home in Cassell Coliseum. And unlike last season, Tech shouldn’t be coming off a COVID pause. 

I wasn’t very high on the Wolfpack in the preseason. Last season wasn’t very successful, despite playing the Hokies close twice. But Keatts has a veteran-laden program with four sophomores, two juniors, two seniors and four graduate students. Most importantly, the transfers have had solid impacts.

Smith is one of the most talented players in the conference. Joiner has been huge, as has Morsell. Burns, Clark and Mahorcic have each contributed while two sophomores – Breon Pass and Ernest Ross – have provided a boost off the bench. Throw in Dowuona and it’s a 10-man rotation for Keatts.

Here are NC State’s five ACC results:

Dec. 2 vs. Pitt: L, 68-60
Dec. 10 at Miami: L, 73-80
Dec. 22 vs. Louisville: W, 76-64
Dec. 30 at Clemson: L, 78-64
Jan. 4 vs. Duke: W, 84-60

Three of the Wolfpack’s four losses came during conference play, and NC State took care of business against Dayton, Butler, Vanderbilt and Furman, too. However, that win against the Blue Devils was massive given the 1-3 ACC record at the time.

NC State also played Kansas close in November, falling by six (80-74) in The Bahamas. It’s obvious that the team has a high ceiling when on. But how does the Wolfpack compare to the four conference foes Tech has faced already in terms of adjusted efficiency, per KenPom?

North Carolina: O – 11; D – 74
Boston College: O – 273; D – 91
Wake Forest: O – 52; D – 122
Clemson: O – 48; D – 67
NC State: O – 37; D – 61

Riding a losing streak, North Carolina was without Armando Bacot against the Hokies. But NC State has the second-best offense Tech has faced in the league this year, and it has the best defense. It won’t be easy, even if Cattoor is healthy.

The Wolfpack Roster

Eight different players have started a game for NC State this season while three average double figures. Here’s what the rotation looks like according to points per game:

Terquavion Smith (6-4, 165, So.): 18.4
Jarkel Joiner (6-1, 180, Gr.): 16.0
Casey Morsell (6-3, 200, Sr.): 13.1
DJ Burns Jr. (6-9, 275, Gr.): 9.7
Jack Clark (6-8, 200, Gr.): 9.1
Dusan Mahorcic (6-10, 235, Gr.): 8.7
LJ Thomas (6-2, 205, Fr.): 3.4
Ernest Ross (6-9, 195, So.): 1.7
Breon Pass (6-0, 175, So.): 1.5
Ebenezer Dowuona (6-11, 225, Jr.): 1.5
Greg Gantt (6-8, 210, r-Jr.): 1.5

Thomas is the only freshman in the rotation, which shows how much Keatts relies on experienced players. Smith, Joiner and Morsell have started all 16 contests while Clark did so for all 15 games in which he appeared. Against Duke, Gantt and Dowuona started alongside the aforementioned trio while Clark did not play. On the road at Clemson in the game prior, NC State’s top-five scorers started together.

Smith was a four-time ACC Freshman of the Week in 2021-22 and an All-ACC Rookie Team honoree. He’s talented, shifty and dynamic. He had 31 points and eight rebounds in the two games against Tech last year. Usually, Cattoor would be tasked with guarding Smith; if he can’t play, it makes Tech’s defensive task that much more challenging.

Joiner has been a solid addition while Virginia transfer Casey Morsell has emerged in his second season in Raleigh. Jack (7.3 rebounds per game) and Mahorcic (6.6) are the top two talents on the glass for the Wolfpack. Smith has 79 assists and 42 turnovers, both team highs. Joiner’s next with 60 dimes, and he and Burns are the only two other players with more than 20 giveaways.

Point being, Smith has the ball in his hands more than anyone. KenPom lists him with 29% of NC State’s possessions, good for 73rd in D-I. It’s been an efficient way to play, evident by the Wolfpack’s turnover percentage of 14.9%, which ranks 12th in the country. For comparison, Virginia Tech is 10th at 14.6%.

NC State is a good shooting team that likes to spot up from outside. Morsell (46%) is the biggest threat from distance, but Joiner (37%) and Smith (35%) can both make some, too. Like Tech, the Wolfpack doesn’t score many points from the foul line.

3-pointers: 34.3%, No. 100
2-pointers: 50.0%, No. 211
Free throws: 15.7%, No. 278

For comparison, here’s Virginia Tech’s distribution:

3-pointers: 31.9%, No. 165
2-pointers: 53.8%, No. 102
Free throws: 14.4%, No. 326

The other factor to note: pace of play. NC State is No. 56 in adjusted tempo. That number leads the ACC, and it’s the second-fastest team the Hokies have played all year. At No. 37, College of Charleston is first.

The Wolfpack will test Virginia Tech in a multitude of ways. Mike Young & Co. need to emphasize taking care of the ball and crashing the boards like they did against Clemson. Their only missing piece to the puzzle then was two-point shooting (27.9%).

Young said the majority of the possessions on Wednesday were not what they needed to be. Is that an easily fixable thing? As Chris Coleman wrote on Friday, much of the stress centers around Cattoor’s absence. We’ll see how much Tech’s improved offensively with this set of players on Saturday.