Virginia Tech Looks To Avoid Three-Game Skid vs. Clemson

After back-to-back losses at Boston College and Wake Forest, Virginia Tech (11-3, 1-2 ACC) returns home to Cassell Coliseum to host Clemson (11-3, 3-0 ACC). It’s a 9 p.m. ET game on ESPNU on Wednesday; Anish Shroff and Chris Spatola are on the call.

While the Hokies have struggled as of late, the Tigers are surging; they’ve won three in a row and seven of their last eight. They’ve yet to play a Quadrant 1 game, however, which will change in Blacksburg.

All three of Tech’s defeats were by a combined nine points; that’s mostly been the case for Clemson as well. The Tigers lost by five total points to South Carolina and Iowa, but Loyola Chicago throttled them in an 18-point game in Atlanta.

Mike Young is 4-1 against Clemson, though the one loss was the 2021-22 regular season finale. Brad Brownell’s bunch was more physical in Littlejohn Coliseum, outmuscling Tech in a 63-59 win.

Four days later in the ACC tournament, the Hokies and Tigers met again. Things were dicey for Tech, especially after Clemson rallied from a 12-point deficit over the final nine minutes of regulation to force overtime. But then Darius Maddox showed off his clutch gene:

https://twitter.com/therealdcunna/status/1501744804065128452?s=20&t=PgLROcjcjbM9bq6Fdp-E6A

A few days later, Virginia Tech clinched the ACC Tournament title, earning an automatic bid to the Big Dance. Maddox’s game-winner will go down as an all-time moment in the program’s history.

Fast forward 10 months, and the Hokies kick off 2023 against the Tigers. They’ve won five consecutive games in the series in Blacksburg; Clemson’s last win in Cassell Coliseum took place in the James Johnson era (Jan. 15, 2014).

On the injury front, Hunter Cattoor and Rodney Rice are both game-time decisions, according to a school spokesperson. Cattoor missed the New Year’s Eve game at Wake Forest after being injured at Boston College; Rice has yet to make his collegiate debut.

Clemson

In early November, Tech Sideline split the conference in half and published two previews of the teams around the ACC. Here’s the synopsis for Clemson:

Many remember Darius Maddox’s prayer against Clemson in the ACC Tournament. But how many recall the Tigers’ 63-59 win over the Hokies in the regular season finale? Tech was outmuscled in that game, which was the team’s only loss in a stretch of eight games that culminated in the ACC Championship. But Clemson is back, led by PJ Hall. The junior center dealt with an injury over the summer but is expected to be back in November. Hunter Tyson and Chase Hunter are the other two returning starters, and Alex Hemenway provided a spark off the bench last season. The Hokies might be more talented than the Tigers, but their physicality and 31 points in two games from Hall last year leveled the playing field.

Those words still ring true. Interestingly, Hall is not Clemson’s leading scorer this season. In fact, he’s the team’s third-best scorer, averaging 12.5 points per game. Reigning ACC Player of the Week Hunter Tyson, who had 31 points and 15 rebounds vs. NC State, averages 15.6. Chase Hunter averages 14.6.

The Tigers are 3-0 in the ACC with wins over Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and NC State. Two of the three were at home; they won by 13 on the road in Atlanta. None of those victories were close, though:

Fri., Dec. 2 vs. Wake Forest: 77-57, +20
Wed., Dec. 21 at Georgia Tech: 79-66, +13
Fri., Dec. 30 vs. NC State: 78-64, +14

Clemson ranks 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 83rd on defense, according to KenPom. The Tigers shoot the ball well (54.6%, 30th in D-I), limit turnovers (16%, 32nd) and are dangerous from behind the arc (38.8%, 16th) and the free throw line (78.3%, 17th). They’re very balanced in all three aspects of the offense, which is their strength. Here’s where their points come from…

3-pointers: 33.3%, No. 125
2-pointers: 48.0%, No. 264
Free throws: 18.7%, No. 180

For comparison, here’s Virginia Tech’s distribution:

3-pointers: 31.3%, No. 176
2-pointers: 54.8%, No. 87
Free throws: 13.9%, No. 339

Clemson has some talented players. The three last matchups were all decided by six points or less, and it’s likely to follow that trend on Wednesday. 

The Tigers’ Roster

Eight different players have started a game for Clemson this season. As previously mentioned, three Tigers average double figures. Here’s what the rotation looks like according to points per game:

Hunter Tyson (6-8, 217, Gr.): 15.6 ppg
Chase Hunter (6-4, 204, Jr.): 14.6
PJ Hall (6-10, 245, Jr.): 12.5
Brevin Galloway (6-3, 210, Gr.): 9.9
Alex Hemenway (6-4, 1945, Sr.): 9.8
Ian Schieffelin (6-7, 230, So.): 5.6
Ben Middlebrooks (6-11, 242, So.): 3.2
RJ Godfrey (6-7, 225, Fr.): 3.0
Josh Beadle (6-3, 182, r-Fr.): 2.4
Dillon Hunter (6-4, 193, Fr.): 0.9

Only Tyson and Hunter, the two leading scorers, have started all 14 contests. Galloway has started 13 of the 14, while Hemenway has started all 12 in which he’s appeared.

Hall, a 2021-22 All-ACC Honorable Mention performer, played the majority of last season with a fractured metatarsal. In July, he dislocated his kneecap, forcing him to play some limited minutes at times this season. Hall’s only scored in double figures in one of the last four games. He wreaked havoc on Virginia Tech last year, scoring 31 points in two meetings.

If Hall is off, who will propel Clemson? Tyson and Hunter, no doubt. The former has been the best player on the floor in five of the team’s last seven games, and they’ve both scored in double figures in 13 of their 14 games. Tyson’s a matchup for Justyn Mutts while Hunter Cattoor, if healthy, will likely guard Hunter.

Both players are lethal from deep, and they’d be Tech’s top two 3-point shooters if they played in Blacksburg. Tyson is 43.9% (29-of-66) while Hunter is 45.8% (27-of-59). For comparison, Grant Basile leads the Hokies with 28 threes and Cattoor is second with 27, but both shoot 40%.

It’s the first time this season Virginia Tech has played a team with two top-100 3-point shooters. Here are the sharpshooters the Hokies have faced, their mark on the year and how they fared against Mike Young’s crew. Clemson’s players are included for comparison.

*Note: KenPom uses a minimum of 40% of minutes played and two shots per game to qualify.*

No. 10 Ta’Lon Cooper, Minnesota: 52.9%; 25.0% (1-of-4)
No. 25 Alex Hemenway, Clemson: 50%
No. 48 Chaunce Jenkins, Old Dominion: 48.1%; 33.3% (1-of-3)
No. 82 Myles Dread, Penn State: 45.8%; 45.5% (5-of-11)
No. 83 Chase Hunter, Clemson: 45.8%
No. 99 Tyree Appleby, Wake Forest: 45.0%; 66.7% (4-of-6)

The numbers are interesting. Cooper and Jenkins aren’t on fantastic teams, but Dread and Appleby have talented guys surrounding them, which may have helped create more opportunities. Nevertheless, Hemenway, Hunter and Tyson can all shoot it. Heck, Hall and Galloway can too.

Clemson made eight treys in both games last season, which is a good number for Virginia Tech. The Hokies need to hold the Tigers close to that mark again on Wednesday.

Virginia Tech’s Approach

Turnovers have really been a problem for the Hokies in their last four games. They’ve given it away 51 times, accounting for 19% of their possessions (51 of 268). Here’s a breakdown of the distribution by player, their respective season total and what percent of their miscues came in the last four games. Note that walk-on Michael Ward had one vs. Grambling State.

Zooming in on the top three, over 40% of the season’s turnovers for Mutts (41%) and Pedulla (44%) came in the last four games. It was just 20% for Basile. While the total number of turnovers aren’t as high for the latter, Collins (67%), Kidd (44%) and Poteat (50%) have committed mistakes at a higher rate lately.

Tech only had double-digit turnovers four times in its first 10 games. The team has struggled in that area lately. While Clemson doesn’t force turnovers at a high rate, it’s crucial that the Hokies take care of the rock and value their possessions.