VT is 8-8 going into the ACC tournament. If we lose to NC State in regulation, we are 8-9, and we are done.
If the game vs. NC State goes to a penalty kick shootout, the game is recorded as a tie. It doesn't matter who wins the PK shootout; both teams will get a tie for their record. The PK shootout is only to decide who advances in the tournament (but both teams still get a tie). So if we lose the PK shootout, we are still 8-8, and we will go to the NCAA tournament.
If we "win" the PK shootout, we will still be 8-8 going into the Wake Forest game. Then if we lose that one, we will be 8-9, and below .500 and out of the NCAA tournament.