I would give us a better chance there.

I thought we needed one out of @Miami, UVA, and @Louisville. We lost to Miami, Louisville isn't happening... we really need to beat UVA.

If we lose all three, that is 8 losses, which like you said, means we can only lose one more time in 5 coin toss games. Not ideal. So maybe your odds are closer. The one thing playing in our favor is a very soft bubble.