some interesting info on current Russian forces’ capabilities in the Ukr War. This is MSM intel sources, and I try to stick with what I know, but everything here seemed logical:

1. The far western city of Lviv was attacked by 6 cruise missiles targeting a MiG repair facility (apparently the only one in the Ukr?). 4 of the 6 missiles accurately hit the target. The two remaining cruise missiles were actually successfully shot down by Ukrainian SAMs (S-300s?) so there is some currently existing AD capability against the missile attacks.

2. Apparently those cruise missiles were fired from a submarine- my guess is that it was likely located off the coast of Odesa. There seems to be a small battle group of combatant ships there.

3. Russian forces seem to be having difficulties getting actionable / timely targeting data / firing solutions for their missiles, guns, etc. It appears that all of their targets have been either fixed, such as buildings, or fired at random, as in a general direction, instead of using pinpoint targeting, like what one would see in terms of GPS-guided weapon systems.

4. This may mean that they are not very capable of hitting moving convoys such as supply convoys from a distance.

5. The Russian armor and military vehicles around Kyiv appear to be digging in and setting up defensive positions. Instead of continuing on to attack Kyiv today or tomorrow, they may be prepping to hold in position and are expecting that they’ll soon receive or continue to receive Ukrainian Forces counter attacks.

6. Right now the Ukrainians and Russians are in what’s called РАСПУ́ТИЦА or “Rasputitza”. The literal Russian translation means “slush”, but contextually, it means the “Season of bad roads” I’m Russian. A lot of vídeo shots we see have snow in some parts- most of the countryside is muddy and vehicles can get easily stuck (maybe another indicator of why that convoy got backed up on the hardball road, and maybe even choked off their own resupply by blocking the only space in and out of the area). It’s in the 50s F all next week and the frozen ground thaws and turns to mud.

7. By EOM May timeframe, the ground tends to dry out and firm up. This may allow the armor units and mobile infantry vehicles at that time to maneuver more rapidly or even laterally around a target city like Kyiv, without having to use existing, expected avenues of approach. All of the footage I have seen attacking Russian armor targets has been on hardball roads.

8. Understanding these maneuver limitations, Putin may continue to use missile attacks, while holding back infantry and armor for two months, if he can continue to resupply his own units, while keeping his own Russian people from protesting.

9. What this might mean for all of us, then, is that the war might continue on at some stalemate, lower intensity conflict for the next two months or longer.

10. Congressional Intel committees oxymoron or just moron say they have Intel showing china did help Russia on the Ukraine invasion, to a much greater degree than just sharing the US Intel that US gave the Chinese on the invasion. Evidence, if it’s there, could show this- example, we found lots of Chicom manufactured AK’s at the beginning of the Iraq / AFG conflicts, and we could tell this by the stamped metal pieces, instead of milled, etc. No idea if it’s small arms, or whatever, but forensically, it will usually come out as fact a year later.

11. Russia controls 1/3 of the worlds global wheat exports. The moment they invaded the Ukr, they stopped all wheat exports to all of the former Soviet bloc countries. These countries are already struggling economically.

12. When Putin met with Xi they signed agricultural and energy agreements. So that they could weaponize global food supply and supply chains, and also energy. As a result, food prices will skyrocket even more on the US. As for more fragile economies, those countries will experience food insecurities which typical leads to sectarian violence. Like food riots.

Thought that was interesting. Rather be watching VT MBB.