For one, for people arguing that the U.S. needed to push harsher sanctions earlier to deter an invasion, that was not possible. First, the invasion was going to occur anyway. Secondly, pushing or unilaterally implementing sanctions earlier would have undermine the efforts to build an international consensus on sanctions. Europe, at first, was not in agreement with the U.S. on the potential severity and seriousness of the invasion. It took weeks and over a month of sharing intelligence and getting allies on board.

Much has been already posted about the state of the Russian military and the mindset of Ukrainian citizens. Russia has not pushed all of its resources into the battlefield; but, at the same time, it was always going to be difficult to pacify an entire country. I have read that a certain % of Russian equipment was falling apart prior to the start of the invasion. Part of the delay to the start was dealing with broken down equipment.

This will be similar to the Russo-Finnish War as Chris mentioned. Of course, the USSR at the time was in full-war mode (i.e., especially with the larger effort at taking Poland, the Baltic Republics, western Ukraine, etc.) The world was also not in a place at that time to full respond. So the scope and consequences are different in this situation. The end result may be that Russia is able to defeat the Ukrainian military efforts and then get reduced to an insurgency.

There is still a chance that this war widens. With Europe, the U.S, Canada, etc supplying arms and equipment, there is a chance that some supply transport gets attacked, that Russia attacks some supply convoy crossing the border from a European border state into Ukraine...or even does something to another country perceived as a supplier. There could be a wider escalation if Russia does something to try and prevent aid. Then it becomes a NATO thing.

People want a no-fly zone.... how is that going to be enforced? That would mean a direct confrontation between U.S./NATO and Russian aircraft.... Are people ready for that? Because that means escalation... If we are ready for a war if a member of NATO is attacked, i guess we should be ready for war if Ukraine does fall under the sway.

the outcome could be that the eastern part of Ukraine gets carved up and attached to Russia. The Donbass region, the area that was populated by Russian-speakers as the Soviet Union moved Russian-speakers in historically, leaving a rump Ukrainian state centered around Lviv in the west...something that was essentially Galicia or Ruthenia historically. This area was the hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism in the 1800s and early 1900s.

I am not a fan of arguments that we often see in which a piece of land is claimed as 'historically belonging to ____". Because you can take any point in time and make different arguments. Parts of Ukraine used to belong to Greece, the Byzantines, the Crimean Tatars, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Austrian-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Mongols, the Scythians, the Samartians, etc. It is just a matter of when you want to go back in time. Maybe Sweden should make claims on Russia!!

I spent time in K'yiv in 1995...not too long after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was a nice, clean regional city. I interview members of extremst political parties, the remnants of the Communist Party (mostly older men) celebrated May Day, there was corruption and men with high pants showing socks and shoes (give away for mafia types). There was a burdeoning Western presence, mostly embassy types and NGO types. I lived in an apartment in my own and shopped on my own. I met two twin sisters ....... It was an interesting time. All Ukrainians mostly want to do is become modern, European people... go to Starbucks, play soccer, watch youtube, listen to music, shop in modern grocery stores, etc. etc...the same lifestyle you see in Europe, U.S, Canada, etc... They have a vibrant press, political party system, freedoms, etc.. As they move further and further away from their own set of corrupt oligarchs, they would look just like Europe. Even the eastern portion of Ukraine, which was where some of the old, falling apart industries were located that collapses during the fall of communism and led to unemployment (always the danger to democratic transitions) started becoming more western.

I know i digress. I am heartened by the Ukrainian resistance. Urban warfare is not going to be easy. Tanks and such can be attacked from all directions. If western military aid is able to get through and into the hands of the Ukrainian military, then a Russian occupation force is in trouble. Ukrainians may not be as battle-hardened as Afghans were in the 1980s and then when the U.S. was in Afghanistan, but these last 5 days have shown that it might be one thing to defeat Ukraine, it will be another thing to not have body bags flowing back to Moscow. And the USSR was able to survive because it controlled the flow of information. in this day and age, information is accessible despite censorsip. Internally, Putin is going to increasingly become marginalized from the Russian people. It will be a matter of time before some powerful figures in Russia decide that Putin is hurting Russia more than helping Russia.

China will be the one saving grace that may help Russia survive sanctions. China is looking at the Russian invasion as a model of how to take back Taiwan. A Japanese-South Korea-Australia-U.S.-Canadian lead coalition isn't the same as all of Europe being neighbors with Ukraine. So that will be interesting. But China can be a source of exports and imports for Russia. Sanction-busting.... There may be an axis with Russia that includes China, Belarus (basically western Russia), the Central Asian states, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and a smattering of African or Latin American states (Venezuela), but this alliance will be marginalized group whose economies are not strong enough to operate outside a western system. China could power it. Other states will have to decide and it will be about whether states like India and Pakistan take a stand.

Ok, ,,now i have really gone on too long.