Here's where we likely stack up at the end of the season:

0 losses: 13-7 likely puts us on the 8/9 line
1 loss: 12-8 and we avoid the first 4
2 losses: 11-9 and we're firmly on the bubble (likely first 4 out)
3 losses: 10-10 and we don't have a postseason

You can view 2 ACCT wins as the equivalent of 1 regular season loss. So if we lose 2 more we have to make the semis at minimum. If we lose 3 then we're looking at the auto-bid or bust.

Bottom line is there's no margin for error, Miami is the only remaining Q1 opportunity on the schedule so we desperately need FSU to stop their skid. If we drop a game vs Pitt that would be like 2 losses.