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TheNuke

Joined: 09/15/2005 Posts: 4971
Likes: 1562


How improbable is this?


I have been part of a 25 days of Christmas raffle setup by a golf league I am in. There are about 150 people in the daily drawing,, and trough the first 20 draws
4 people have been picked twice
1 person has been picked 3 times (he has 3 chances peer draw because he recruited 2 others to register.

This is a pretty basic binomial distribution in play, and there is a website that will do calculations
The 4 people that have been twice, that probability is about 1:150
The person that has won 3 times, that probability is 1:180

Something seems fishy that all 5 of these scenarios have come about.
[Post edited by TheNuke at 12/20/2021 10:24PM]

Link: Binomial calculator


Posted: 12/20/2021 at 10:09PM



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Current Thread:
 
  
How improbable is this? -- TheNuke 12/20/2021 10:09PM
  That's how they always go -- hoosnowahokie 12/21/2021 12:29AM
  That is a travesty IMO. ** -- HokieR 12/21/2021 08:35AM
  A hilarious travesty. ** -- HokieNoVA 12/21/2021 09:28AM
  I will say there's a lot of irony here -- `lag 12/21/2021 10:07AM
  Yep. The chickens are coming home to roost. ** -- HokieNoVA 12/21/2021 10:29AM
  They identify as barnyard fowl ** -- TomTurkey 12/21/2021 12:28PM
  Are they Democrats? TIC!! ** -- CrystalCoveHokie 12/20/2021 10:32PM
  Nope, all were currently still living ** -- Happy Dog 12/21/2021 08:38AM
  Nope, all were currently still living ** -- Happy Dog 12/21/2021 08:38AM
  Pretty much ** -- CrystalCoveHokie 12/20/2021 10:46PM

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