I'll preface this by saying i'm married to a TCU grad, so the B12 fallout has been of big interest in my house. It led me to digging into their message boards, and the poster in the link below made a post in JUNE that the texas/OU deal may happen. He's very credible. Interesting post from last night, that makes it sound like in the short term, ND's decision is the key. dig into "Gary's shirtless revenge's" post history for more...

"Gary's Shirtless Revenge, Yesterday at 7:24 PM
Popping in to share:

- Glad to see the national reporters are catching on to reality... Things are going to move both very slow and fast over the next several years.

- As I said, Big 8 is highly aligned right now... Nothing will happen until the BIG and ACC act, if they do anything at all. If they do nothing (possible), Big 8 will likely expand by a few... need a minimum of 10, probably 12 members to put together a viable media package and make some $$. AAC won't be able to compete with Big 8 if this comes to pass. Anybody talking about "going forward with 8" doesn't know what they are talking about, I think the chances of that happening are ~0.1%.

- Hot rumor: KU to the BIG is happening! No, hold your horses... Have there been talks? Yes, for literally years. Is WVU going to the ACC? Not today... Have there been talks? Yes, for literally years. All the conferences are getting their options together, of which there are dozens of scenarios and versions to consider with lots of pros/cons, and until the first domino falls nothing else will move. TX/OU wasn't the first domino, that was just inevitable for one or both to leave. What's happening next will determine the next decade of college sports.

- I have a deep admiration for John Skipper, who was recently interviewed and talked about all this realignment buzz... He is a little dated in his commentary re: the conference networks and how those fees are structured with the operators, but he did let the cat out of the bag a bit... Football drives the bus, but basketball is where the $$ is. As I've said here before, CBB is ESPN's dirty little secret (CBS/Viacom too)... It is very, very profitable. The ACC's TV contract is undervalued by at least 25%, but it's basketball rights and fees are probably undervalued more than its football content to be honest, maybe up to 50%.... And ESPN is happy to keep all the talk about "football football football" because it helps them keep the profit monster alive. CBB is a huge PROFIT driver for ESPN, and super important to ESPN+ too. This doesn't mean anything is going to change, as everybody is obsessed with the top-line in business.

Macro-level remains:

- BIG doesn't have to act, they are in a great spot. FOX is going to pay them SEC or close-to-it money to go exclusive, that deal is in the works and could get announced relatively soon. However, they are watching the ACC/SEC closely...

- ACC is working overtime on ND... At this point, the ball is in ND's court. They could have it all and be in the ACC, and about half of ND decision-makers want to do this. The fan base is split too, leaning more indy. If the ACC can make it happen, I think they will add WVU too and call it a day.

- If the ACC does this, then:

--- BIG likely acts, feels they have to. Might go for PAC 4 (USC, STAN, UCLA, WASH) and maybe even consider some relegation, though I doubt it. PAC 12 alliance also possible, with FOX brokering to lock up the PAC. What they should do is go the relegation route, but the Presidents don't want to do it... Maryland especially is too much of a fit as an institution and research university. If this was "fantasy realignment" you'd drop Rutgers and Maryland and grab 6 from the PAC to make an 18 team mega conference, one that would get more $$ than the SEC. Probably USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Arizona/Cal, something like that.

--- BIG 8, now BIG 7, is probably done. Maybe they stick together, but I think if the dominoes start falling the schools will just look for some self-preservation wherever they can find it... Likely, the AAC which will become a super "best of the rest" conference.

--- Regardless, SEC appears likely done for now. My understanding is, having investigated the ACC GOR and talking to ESPN, poaching Clemson and FSU is just a bridge too far FOR NOW. Check back in a decade.

If you were asking me to put my money on it, my bet is nothing happens except some alliances and wrangling. Big 12 will still exist, with new members and a 5th best deal ahead of the AAC but well behind the PAC/ACC, but still "in the game." Bigger is no longer better, unless bigger also equals quality... There's just too little quality available right now."