Many private schools, especially small ones that are not among the elite with large endowments, will not survive if they cannot open in the Fall (or late summer). Students are already expressing the opinion through various platforms that large numbers of them will take a year or semester off rather than shell out tens of thousands to continue taking classes on-line at home. The impact to schools with tight budgets would be catastrophic if even just 15-20% of the student body decides to take a year off.

Even the large elite schools could be impacted hard. Imagine you are an incoming freshman (or their parent) at an elite school with $60K-plus tuition and the school announces on-line classes for at least the first semester. So much is tied up with the emotion of heading off to college, and that would be completely undermined. Just take the year off and defer. If the school will not accept deferrals, just decline and apply again to other schools for the next year: you won't be alone. Imagine if that same school is one with a marquee football program too, and if the football season is scrapped or truncated? Tens of millions potentially lost.

To survive, most colleges will need to open, and they will need to make that decision before June IMHO.