If you look at the logarithmic charts on Worldometer you can see clear phases in the pandemic - the launch, the geometric growth, and the impact of mitigation efforts.

By simply drawing a line to continue the geometric growth, you can see both the benefit of mitigation efforts and get an idea where we'd be had we not implemented them.

I don't buy that we'd actually have 10 million cases now, but it gives you an idea of where we'd be and how it would have crushed the health care system.