One thing to keep in mind is that

the USA averages 400,000 deaths/month (4.8M/yr) without any from coronavirus. Some, but clearly not all, of the 1.7M in your calculation will be the same as the 4.8M who would have died anyway. We still don't know the delta of how big an increase to the normal 4.8M/yr that coronavirus would/will generate.

In response to this post by Kudelski

Posted: 04/17/2020 at 3:39PM

Interesting Standford study, how wide spread is Coronavirus -- HokieForever 04/17/2020 12:48PM

Also, watch the teddy roosevelt results... ** -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 3:00PM

I actually kind of read that differently -- Synaesthesia 04/17/2020 2:48PM

Yeah. Unless my math is off this means 1.7 million will die without any -- Kudelski 04/17/2020 3:14PM

One thing to keep in mind is that -- lilhokie525 04/17/2020 3:39PM

Mitigation only changes when, not if you get it ** -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 3:20PM

Assuming no treatments/vaccines are found. ** -- Kudelski 04/17/2020 3:26PM

I dont anticipate a vaccine anytime before next spring. Treatments dont -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 4:06PM

Yeah, that's basically the gist. The infectiousness is staggering. ** -- Gobbler-100 04/17/2020 3:15PM

Tanks your mortality rate though -- HokieForever 04/17/2020 3:10PM

What it MIGHT mean, is divide fatality rate by 50 to 85x... ** -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 2:57PM

Ignore the 50-85...that is a distraction... -- Kudelski 04/17/2020 3:39PM

I'm pretty sure he's saying he's agnostic about total fatalities. -- Gobbler-100 04/17/2020 3:43PM

Sure, although the CFR was never my own foremost concern -- Synaesthesia 04/17/2020 3:11PM

That's not particularly helpful if the total # of cases is 50-85x higher ** -- Gobbler-100 04/17/2020 3:00PM

Ofc it is. The denonminator just blew up. -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 3:01PM

Just because the fatality *rate* would be lower... -- Gobbler-100 04/17/2020 3:10PM

Never said anything about total #fatalities. ** -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 3:18PM

Iceland showing 1%, don’t think it’s that meaningful -- WestyHokie 04/17/2020 2:39PM

Iceland tested 3% of their population. There's only 340K there. ** -- Va AandM 04/17/2020 3:32PM

Its very meaningful. ** -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 2:58PM

One thing I worry about with antibody tests is their accuracy -- VTSnake 04/17/2020 2:32PM

I saw a story on this -- capitals1 04/17/2020 2:50PM

If the latter, one would expect the numbers to be far higher -- Synaesthesia 04/17/2020 2:49PM

Other coronaviruses are just one group and thought to make up only 20% -- VTSnake 04/17/2020 2:56PM

That's true, just thinking 3% is believable for an accurate test of cv19 ** -- Synaesthesia 04/17/2020 2:58PM

Yep. Just read it. As some expected...big news ** -- ColoVT82 04/17/2020 2:22PM

This is really good news IMO. ** -- BG Hokie 04/17/2020 2:07PM

The virus problem is over if this holds. Less deadly than flu. ** -- Concord Dan 04/17/2020 1:55PM

That would be great, but I find it hard to believe -- VTSnake 04/17/2020 2:37PM

This is exactly right. The asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission... -- Gobbler-100 04/17/2020 2:45PM

And it's not clearly known when you have it, unlike the flu. With -- 133743Hokie 04/17/2020 2:52PM

Indeed ** -- Gobbler-100 04/17/2020 2:59PM

We need more antibody tests -- VTSnake 04/17/2020 1:42PM

I don't know if feasible but I envision something like Nielsen meets DNA -- Synaesthesia 04/17/2020 2:46PM

I think everyone agrees with that. ** -- 48zip 04/17/2020 1:46PM

I would have guessed a larger adjustment from a FB advertisement. Esp for -- 48zip 04/17/2020 1:37PM

Columbia U Hospitals: 15% + of all women admitted for delivery -- Va AandM 04/17/2020 1:44PM

One thing to keep in mind is that

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