New data to chew on - Germany, Iceland and chicago.
Germany (1000 people Heinsberg area) - 15% population infected, fatality rate 0.37%
Iceland - (~9% of total population tested) - 5% tested positive for c19, fatality rate 0.36%. (Equivalent percapita #tests in usa is about 30M...we are just above 2M as of yesterday, growing at 150k/day)
Roseland hospital (near Chicago) - 30-50% have antibodies (!)
The area in Germany tested was a region where c19 blew up early (Heinsberg).
These a just a few emerging data points. Stuff like peer review, assignment of "cause of death" rulesets (Apple to Apple comparison between countries), #false positive/negatives tempers drawing any big conclusions. The data is, however, interesting at where it's pointing.
As discussed earlier, at 15% infected/have antibody rate, it is only about 10-14d to effective herd immunity. Remember, the folks tested that display positive are already 5-10 days into the infection cycle...
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Link: Roseland hospital
Posted: 04/10/2020 at 08:18AM