I haven't been on the Lounge much but I just checked in today and I'm surprised to see people not taking the corona virus seriously. I'm going to make the case that this is a bad outlook.

* This virus is very contagious unlike other such scares of the last twenty years. It can spread even while infected people show no symptoms. It kills a lot of people, especially older people. And not just older people-- there are case reports of deaths in people in their 30s and 40s as well. Yes, older people are more vulnerable in general, but there may be younger people who are also vulnerable due to reasons we don't know yet.

* Things that spread in a "mutiplicative" way or in exponential terms are very hard for the mind to grasp. Statements like "the flu has already killed 10x as many people as the corona virus" are victim to this sort of blind spot. Math catches up very fast when a process is spreading exponentially. It's like the parable of the grains of rice on a chess board.

When something is multiplicative/exponential, there is a systemic risk. When there is systemic risk, you best not take chances.

* It's better to be paranoid and wrong than carefree and wrong. When there's a rustle in trees behind you, the person who is paranoid it's a bear will be wrong 9 out of 10 times and be laughed at by his carefree friend. But at least the paranoid person will be alive after the tenth time.

* As I've gotten older, I've come to realize a simple rule that holds true in most cases: whatever the media says, the opposite is usually true. The reasons for this phenomenon are worthy of an essay of their own, but that's a different topic for a different day. What I see in the media is a lot of "the flu has killed 10x as many people" and "the panic is worse than the disease."

* We are not an authoritarian country like China. And we do not have a tradition of duty and civic harmony like many of the far east countries. We're Americans and we care much more about our rights and freedoms. So I don't see the govt being able to lock down massive areas of the country. But with our rights comes responsibilities--and if we're going to be able to handle this threat, it will be through what we do best: decentralized solutions and innovation.

* At an individual level, I think everyone should self-quarantine as much as possible over the next couple of months. I think all sporting events, conferences, schools, colleges, political rallies, etc should be cancelled. Everyone, young and old, healthy and sick, should take hygiene precautions including hand washing, not touching face, etc. Even if you are young and think you're at little risk from the virus, remember that you can spread it to older people.

* Putting my money where my mouth is: I am canceling my wedding in mid April. I will still get married in a private religious ceremony, but I cannot put my older relatives (or younger for that matter) at risk. Even my parents are not invited (I just spoke to them today). This was a difficult decision, but it's the right one.

* Pessimistically, I think sooner or later, (probably sooner) everyone in the world will be infected. The reason to delay getting infected is to allow the world to learn more about the virus, develop treatments, possibly develop a vaccine, and not overwhelm the hospital system all at once. In other words, spread out the burden to the health care system over many years while allowing science to develop treatments/vaccines.

* Even if we get a lull in cases in the summer due to heat/humidity, next winter will be as bad or worse. There will be yearly peaks for a few years. Again, hopefully we develop treatments / vaccines before some the peaks to come.

Remember that we are Americans, and as Americans, we cherish our freedoms, and with freedom comes great responsibility: to act *voluntarily* in the best possible way for ourselves and for our community.