This became a huge rebuild once KBJ decided to move on.

3-4 years is what it will likely take to get back into NCAA consideration.

Anything close to .500 this year would be a huge success. I'd go with 4-16 in the ACC, 7-3 or 8-2 outside of it. This upcmong year's squad isn't even remotely close to being an NIT level team. It lacks both talent and experience.

You have to look at these things in relation to everyone you have to play.
Bede was the #80 ranked player in my metrics last year in the ACC. That translates to a solid backup.
Nolley is a former top 100 player that has not yet played a college game.
Cone is a former Top 100 player who re-classified up, which means he will be more behind physically and in total basketball experience than the typical player out of HS.

Wilkins was the next highest rated player on the team and that was sub 100 in the ACC.

Horne was lower than Wilkins and is probably more a mid-major than high major player. He is basically a 6'5 PF who doesn't have a good outside shot.

Johnson is the lowest rated transfer into the conference this year. His production at AL ST would place him in the sub 100 category in the ACC and that was in the lowest of low division one conferences. Frankly at almost any other school he is a practice player. But he will likely need to start and play 25+ mpg at VT.

Ojiako has nice long term potential but I would not expect much out of him as a FR. He is going to have a tough time trying to compete physically in the ACC as a FR.
Alleyne is another nice long term guy - but also is re-classifying up to play this year.

Teams that overperform when they are expected to be poor tend to have one of two makeups. Either a talented team that has underperformed with the previous coach or a team without much talent but with alot of experience so you have a depth of players that understand how hard you have to play and how well you have to play as a unit to have a chance to win conference games. This year's squad has neither of those characteristics.