Military Bowl Preview: Virginia Tech Matches Up With Tulane

• Virginia Tech vs. No. 23 Tulane: Wednesday, December 27 at 2 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md.
• Betting line: Hokies -9.5 
• Roster cards: Click here 
• Annapolis weather: Click here 

Note: The situation is fluid and developing with regards to information about which Tulane players will be playing in the bowl game. We will update this preview as we learn more.

[Editor’s note — 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 19: Guerry Smith of NOLA.com published a story on Monday night on quarterback Michael Pratt and six other starters opting out of the bowl game that was circulated to TSL on Tuesday. As a result, we’ve updated our preview and attached a list of Tulane players that will and won’t play in the Military Bowl against Virginia Tech.]

Tulane: Ins and Outs

Here’s a list of Tulane players in alphabetical order that are and aren’t playing in the Military Bowl. This list will be updated periodically ahead of the bowl game on Dec. 27. Starters are italicized and bolded.

Out:

WR Chris Brazzell (6-5, 195, r-Fr.)
FS DJ Douglas (6-0, 205, r-Jr.)
CB Kiland Harrison (6-0, 180, r-Jr.)
DOG Darius Hodges (6-2, 280, r-Jr.)
WR/PR Jha’Quan Jackson (5-11, 185, Sr.)
CB Jarius Monroe (6-2, 205, Sr.)
LG Prince Pines (6-5, 335, r-Sr.)
QB Michael Pratt (6-3, 220, Sr.)
SS Kentrell Webb (5-11, 185, r-Fr.)

In:

TE Alex Bauman (6-5, 245, So.)
DE Keith Cooper (6-5, 275, Jr.) 
DOG Devean Deal (6-4, 260, r-So.)
QB Kai Horton (6-4, 220, r-So.)

Coaching Staff

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Here’s a look at Tulane’s coaching staff that’s been shifted around for the Military Bowl:

IHC/OC/QB: Slade Nagle
RB: Carter Sheridan
WR: Collin D’Angelo (GA)
TE: Tyler Spotts-Orgeron
OL: Dan Roushar

DC: Rob Greene (formerly one of three DB coaches)
DL: Gerald Chatman
LB: Peter Hontas (GA)
CB: J.J. McCleskey
S: Rodney Saulsbury (GA)

ST: Greg McMahon

The Green Wave

We’re eight days away from Virginia Tech’s Military Bowl matchup with No. 23 Tulane (11-2). The Hokies are looking to finish the season with a winning record for the first time since 2019, while the Green Wave are looking for a fresh start after the departure of head coach Willie Fritz and the opt-outs of several key players.

I decided to wait until Monday, Dec. 18, to start writing the preview, and it’s a good thing I did, because had I started early, much of what I would have written would have been invalidated by now. The Hokies have lost tight end Dae’Quan Wright to the transfer portal, but the Tulane team has been gutted by key departures among both the players and coaching staff.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has had a month of good news with coaching staff continuity and nearly every key player announcing that he plans to return for the 2024 season. That gives the Hokies some positive momentum heading into this one.

This preview won’t be as statistically biased as most. With Tulane missing so many key players on both sides of the ball, I’m not sure an in-depth look at their numbers would serve any purpose.

Tulane’s Missing Pieces

After eight seasons at the helm of Tulane, head coach Willie Fritz accepted the Houston head coaching position on December 3. He will not coach in the bowl game against the Hokies; thanks to the transfer portal and the early Signing Day, the days of departing coaches sticking around to coach the bowl game are mostly gone.

Jon Sumrall is the new head coach of Tulane, but he won’t coach in the bowl game. That will be left to interim head coach Slade Nagle, who served as the Green Wave’s offensive coordinator during the regular season. It was expected that most of Fritz’s staff  would stay and coach in the game, but that hasn’t happened. Recruiting for one school while preparing for a bowl game for another just doesn’t make sense, and as such, several assistants have departed early after Sumrall dismissed them:

• WR coach Derrick Sherman
• DC/LB coach Shiel Wood
• DB coach Josh Christian-Young

That leaves the Green Wave with just seven full-time coaches for the Military Bowl. Rob Greene, who coached defensive backs this year, will be the defensive coordinator for the bowl game.

Starting safety D.J. Douglas, the fourth-leading tackler on the team, entered the transfer portal. Starting cornerback Jarius Monroe is also out for the bowl game, as are cornerback Kiland Harrison, dog Darius Hodges and safety Kentrell Webb.

While the lack of key defensive leadership could hurt Tulane, they are also seriously impacted on the offensive side of the ball by the departures of several important offensive players:

• QB Michael Pratt: Pratt has been projected as high as a second or third round draft pick, and he’s opted out of the bowl game to begin preparations.
• WR Chris Brazzell II: Tulane’s leading receiver who caught 44 passes for 711 yards and five touchdowns in 2023.
• WR/PR Jha’Quan Jackson: 26 catches for 439 yards and four touchdowns this season.

Those are obviously three key pieces, and that doesn’t include left guard Prince Pines. Reports indicate that Tulane will start either Kai Horton or Justin Ibieta in the Military Bowl, although Horton entered the portal himself back on December 8. It’s assumed that he’ll stick around for the bowl game, however, and perhaps he’ll pull his name out of the portal with Pratt moving on.

With so many key pieces missing for the Green Wave, Virginia Tech has a personnel advantage in this game. It should be noted that starting VT safeties Jalen Stroman and Nasir Peoples are out after having surgery, but will Tulane have the personnel in the passing game to take advantage?

Tulane Running Back Makhi Hughes

Tulane might not have the personnel in the passing game to take advantage of the absence of Stroman and Peoples, but they do have the personnel at tailback in the form of Makhi Hughes (5-11, 205, r-Fr.). He ran for 1,290 yards and seven touchdowns this season.

Talented running backs have been Virginia Tech’s kryptonite all season. To refresh your memory, check out these numbers…

• Kyle Monangai, Rutgers: 16 carries, 146 yards, 3 TDs
• Rasheen Ali, Marshall: 27 carries, 179 yards, 2 TDs
• Trey Benson, FSU: 11 carries, 200 yards, 2 TDs
• Issac Guerendo, Louisville: 11 carries, 147 yards, 3 TDs

Nearly all of Virginia Tech’s run-stopping issues stemmed from poor linebacker play and injuries to the starting safeties. With both safeties out, and the mike linebacker issue still not being solved, Hughes is in line to have a big game against the Hokie defense.

Hughes had seven 100-yard rushing games in 2023, and he’s also a workhorse. He had eight games of 20+ carries, and even three games of 25+ carries. I would expect him to have at least 20 against the Hokies, but 25+ is probably more likely with the losses to the Tulane passing game. He’s the exact type of back that Virginia Tech hasn’t been able to stop this season.

While it’s certainly never ideal to lose so many key players in the passing game for one contest, it also offers Tulane the opportunity to get the ball to Hughes even more, and that just happens to be Virginia Tech’s defensive weakness. With the Hokies’ starting safeties out, the Green Wave will be looking to replicate those long runs allowed by the VT defense earlier this season. I would be surprised if Hughes doesn’t go over 100 in this one.

The Tulane Passing Game

The ideal scenario for the Green Wave is that their defense stops the Virginia Tech offense, while they establish a strong running game. If they are forced into a situation where they have to pass, then it will be a tough matchup for Tulane with a backup quarterback and two key pass catchers out.

Kai Horton (6-4, 220, r-So.) has limited experience in college, going 51-of-103 (49.5%) for 729 yards for his career, with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He saw extended action earlier this season with Pratt out. Here are his numbers in back-to-back games…

• Ole Miss: 15-of-37 (40.5%), 231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 carries, -28 yards
• Southern Miss: 12-of-19 (63.2%), 186 yards, 2 TDs, 4 carries, -19 yards

He doesn’t appear to be a runner, and he struggled in his start against Ole Miss. He was a lot better the next week against Southern Miss, but the Eagles went 3-9 this season. Horton entered the portal back on December 8, but the Tulane staff said he will play in this one.

The other quarterback option is Justin Ibieta (6-5, 220, r-So.). He also has limited experience, going 26-of-39 (66.7%) for 304 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and he has one career start under his belt.

With Brazzell and Jackson opting out at wide receiver, Tulane will rely on two smaller receivers who normally operate in the slot:

• Yulkeith Brown (5-10, 170, Jr.): Brown usually plays on the outside despite his height. He caught 28 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns.
• Lawrence Keys III (5-11, 170, r-Sr.): The New Orleans native is explosive, averaging over 18 yards per reception and leading the team with seven receiving touchdowns.

That’s a pretty duo with Brazzell and Jackson hitting the transfer portal, though it does lack size.

With a backup quarterback, and missing a very good receiver and their starting tight end, I think the Tulane passing game will struggle if they can’t run the football. That will be the key for the Hokies in this one.

Tulane’s Best Player Up Front

The Hokies hold the advantage up front for the most part, but I do want to note starting center Sincere Haynesworth (6-1, 310, Sr.). He’s one of the top offensive linemen in the country. He’s currently projected by some to be a mid-round pick in the NFL Draft, which is quite good considering interior linemen usually don’t get selected very high.

The Virginia Tech defensive tackles were very good in 2023, and they will have their hands full with Haynesworth. I would expect Tulane to challenge the Hokies up the middle to take advantage of their own strength (center) as well as Tech’s weakness (mike and safety).

What Do We Expect From The Tulane Defense?

It looked like two of the most important Tulane players were not going to play in the bowl, but NOLA.com reports they will:

• DE Keith Cooper: 8.5 TFL, 5 sacks. Transferring to Houston.
• DE Devean Deal: 12 TFL, 4 sacks. Deal has entered the transfer portal.

Cooper and Deal combined for 61.8% of the Green Wave’s snaps at defensive end this season, so whoever the defensive coordinator is going to be will have to figure out in a hurry what he’s going to do at defensive end for this game.

Still, there are a number of absences. All of that makes this one a tricky defense to try and preview. Let me hit on some key players and then give you some general thoughts.

Despite the two losses up front, there are still some very good players on that side of the ball.

Anchor Kam Pedescleaux (5-9, 185, r-Sr.): He broke up 12 passes this year, and the Louisiana Lafayette transfer has played over 3,000 snaps in his career. He graded out at an 85.2 in 2023, and an 89.7 in 2022. He’s legitimately one of the best safeties in college football.

CB Lance Robinson (5-11, 180, r-Sr.): Robinson led the team with four interceptions in 2023. He’s a former Kansas State player. Robinson wasn’t quite as effective down the stretch, which makes me wonder whether he was carrying an injury.

Those are two very good senior defenders, but as noted above, a few starters are in the portal. The Green Wave are expected to start Darious Swanson (6-2, 200, r-Sr.) in his place. Swanson has played in nine games and has 19 total tackles.

The Green Wave also feature a couple of good linebackers in Jared Small (6-0, 220, r-Sr.) and Jesus Machado (6-1, 220, Jr.). Tyler Grubbs (6-2, 230, Jr.) led the team with 98 tackles, but he wasn’t anywhere near as consistent as Small and Machado.

Up front, defensive tackle Patrick Jenkins (6-2, 305, Jr.) is the best player for the Green Wave outside of Cooper and Deal. He had 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. However, the other defensive tackles aren’t dominant.

The Hokies will be facing a depleted secondary and an inconsistent middle linebacker, though the defensive line is strong. Tech’s strengths as an offense don’t necessarily seem to align very well with Tulane’s projected weaknesses in this game, though if the Hokies can establish the run against a defense missing a ton of pieces and is being coached by two graduate assistants, they should be in good shape.

How prepared will the Tulane defense be to face a Virginia Tech offense that features a lot of moving parts? That’s a big unknown with an interim defensive coordinator. Normally, I would expect this defense to hold up pretty well against the Hokies, but with an unknown coaching staff and key opt-outs, how properly prepared will the players be for this game, and do they have the depth at end to sustain the losses?

Tulane Special Teams

Shedro Louis (5-8, 170, Sr.) is a senior running back who returns kicks. He finished seventh nationally in kickoff return average this season at 28.7 (Tuten is No. 3 at 30.56, in case you were curious). He’s a very dangerous player who took one back for a touchdown against Tulsa. If you recall that name, it’s because he did this to the Hokies last season while playing for Liberty…

• Rushing: 9 carries, 64 yards
• Receiving: 1 catch, 6 yards
• KO return: 2 returns, 123 yards, 1 TD

If the Hokies continue to kick the ball in the end zone, then Louis shouldn’t be a factor. However, if they leave one short, then look out.

Jha’Quan Jackson was the punt returner and averaged 12.22 yards per return this season but opted out. That means Keys, who had one return in the regular season that was a fair catch, will be the man back there.

Kicker Valentino Ambrosio (5-9, 175, r-Sr.) is good, going 19-of-24 this season. He is dependable beyond 40 yards, going 6-of-8 from that range in 2023.

Will Karoll (6-4, 200, Fr.) is a true freshman punter who averaged over 40 yards per punt this season. Opponents only had 10 returns against the Green Wave this season, which is tied for No. 33 nationally.

Before we make our staff picks, what’s your prediction?

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Virginia Tech-Tulane Military Bowl Final Thoughts

This year Virginia Tech has struggled against strong defenses with very good running games. That’s pretty much what Tulane is. However, there’s also the rather big caveat that the Green Wave have had a number of key players opt out, and with only seven active coaches on the staff and no named defensive coordinator, how prepared are they going to be for this game?

I expect both sides are going to try and establish the running game very early. In fact, you’ll read an article later today about Brandon Patterson that talks about Tulane’s jet sweep game, and that should play a heavy role. Both teams know it will be in their best interest to operate ahead of the sticks; especially Tulane, who will be missing several key pieces from their passing game.

This is a good team, and if they had all their pieces, there’s a strong chance that I would pick them. They don’t have all those pieces, though, and ever since the calendar flipped to October the only teams who have been able to beat the Hokies have been teams like Florida State, Louisville and NC State, who combined went 32-6 and finished 1-2-3 in the ACC. Tech has blown everybody else out. With their coaching staff in flux and without five important players, I don’t think this version of the 2023 Green Wave is as good as those other teams.

I’ll also point out that even with all their pieces in place offensively, Tulane struggled to score down the stretch. Check out their last five games…

• East Carolina: 13 points
• Tulsa: 24
• FAU: 24
• UTSA: 29
• SMU: 14
• Average: 20.8

Something was up with the Tulane offense even before they lost all those players, as they barely averaged 20 points per game down the stretch.

I think the Hokies have momentum and will win this game. Since each of their wins came by double digits this year, that’s what I’m going with. A little bit of a homefield advantage in Annapolis won’t hurt.

Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Tulane 20

Will Stewart’s Take: The comparison is obvious: this is shades of the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl, with Virginia Tech playing the role of 2021 Maryland and Tulane playing the role of 2021 VT.

Yes and no. The 2021 Hokies and 2023 Green Wave both lost their coaching staffs, except Virginia Tech’s was fired; Tulane’s was hired away by Houston. Tulane is also a better team – arguably much better – than the 2021 Hokies.

The player opt-outs are similar, though. There’s a lot of Tulane talent that won’t be playing in this game, whereas nearly every key player for the Hokies will play. The 2023 Hokies are dialed in and want to win, much like the 2021 Maryland Terrapins showed up focused.

In retrospect, there was no way Virginia Tech was even going to be competitive in the Pinstripe Bowl, and that’s how it played out, with Maryland demolishing the Hokies 54-10. (I had to look the score up; I had blocked it from my memory.)

Tulane, however, can be more than competitive in this game. They’ve got a good rushing attack that can take advantage of VT’s often-porous run defense. They’ve got a salty defense that could give the Hokies trouble.

If VT gameplans smart on offense and focuses on stopping the run on defense, the Hokies should be fine, especially with the intangibles factored in. This thing could go either way, but most signs point to a Virginia Tech win.

Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Tulane 21

David Cunningham’s Take: I think this game will be somewhat close, but in the end, Virginia Tech has more talent and buy-in right now. This is a program with positive momentum in the transfer portal at the moment, and even though that doesn’t roll over until next season, it’s a stark contrast to a Tulane team that’s lost everyone.

I think the Green Wave backdoor cover in this one, but the Hokies are in a much better position. The one concern I have with Tech is at safety where Jaylen Jones and Mose Phillips will start in place of the injured Nasir Peoples and Jalen Stroman. Do the Hokies have enough to hold up on the back end? I’m not sure how much it’ll matter, however, since three of Tulane’s biggest offensive weapons, including starting quarterback Michael Pratt, are out.

In the end, I see Tech getting it done with its defense, particularly the pass rush. I imagine it’s going to be a fired up defensive line group considering a chunk of the group — Norell Pollard, Mario Kendricks and Pheldarius Payne — are done after this game. Combine that with what should be a very pro-Hokie crowd and this one has Tech written all over it.

David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Tulane 23

Andy Bitter’s Take: It’s best in times like these not to overthink things too much. Virginia Tech is happy to be in this bowl game, has almost everyone coming back and is looking to build toward 2024. Tulane’s been stripped of its parts, with its head coach departing and its quarterback opting out (plus others), feeling like it’s just trying to barely get across the finish line in what’s been an incredible two-year run that’s got to have a deflating feeling right now after coming up just short of a New Year’s Six bowl again.

That doesn’t feel like an even matchup to me. The QB piece is huge for Tulane. Pratt’s been incredible the last few seasons, so losing him is a major blow, with uncertainty as to who will even take snaps in his place. Lacking that piece, I just don’t know if the Green Wave can keep up with a Hokies offense that’s been pretty good over the last two months.

I think Tech has too much offense for Tulane in this one (what on Earth is happening!?) and wins by a comfortable margin, just as it has against a lot of teams in the season’s second half.

Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Tulane 17

Last Game’s Virginia Tech-UVA Prediction Poll Results

Game Result: Virginia Tech 55, UVA 17

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2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game	Chris (9-4)	Andy (9-4)	David (9-4)	Will (8-5)	Result
ODU
Purdue
@Rutgers
@Marshall
Pittsburgh
@FSU
Wake Forest
Syracuse
@Louisville
@BC
NC State
@UVa
Tulane

2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (10-3) (record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game	Fan Poll	Result	Score
ODU	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 36, ODU 17
Purdue	Hokies Win by 1-10		Purdue 24, Hokies 17
@Rutgers	Rutgers Wins by 1-10		Rutgers 35, Hokies 16
@Marshall	Marshall Wins by 1-10		Marshall 24, Hokies 17
Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10		Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21
@Florida State	FSU Wins by 11+		FSU 39, Hokies 17
Wake Forest	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 30, Deacs 13
Syracuse	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 38, Orange 10
@Louisville	Cardinals Win by 11+		Cardinals 34, Hokies 3
@BC	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 48, Eagles 22
NC State	Hokies Win by 1-10		Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28
@Virginia	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 55, Hoos 17
Tulane	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 41, Green Wave 20