Game Preview: Virginia Tech Faces No. 24 NC State

• Virginia Tech at NC State: Thursday, October 27, 7:30, ESPN
• Betting Line: NC State -13.5
• Roster cards: Click here
• Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
• Raleigh weather: Click here

Virginia Tech (2-5, 1-3) comes off a bye week as the Hokies travel to Raleigh to take on NC State (5-2, 1-2). The Wolfpack come into the game ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll and No. 23 in the Coaches Poll. However, they fell to Syracuse, 24-9 in their last game and lost starting quarterback Devin Leary for the remainder of the season. Without Leary, the ranking next to their name is merely a façade. Nevertheless, is Virginia Tech good enough to take advantage of the Wolfpack’s misfortune and win this game?

That’s been the question for the Hokies all season, and usually it hasn’t turned out well. Old Dominion couldn’t manage an offensive touchdown until their final drive of the game, and Virginia Tech still lost. Miami committed 17 penalties for 159 yards, but the Hokies couldn’t capitalize. They did well against Boston College, but then again, so has everybody else.

Virginia Tech has lost four football games in a row. If they lose to NC State on Thursday night, it would mark the first time since 1992 that they’ve lost five in a row. The Hokies lost their final five games of the season that year, though it would have been eight in a row had they not tied No. 21 NC State 13-13 (the Wolfpack kicked a last-second field goal to tie).

Ironically, Virginia Tech is honoring the 30-year anniversary of that 1992 team that went 2-8-1 by fielding its worst team since…1992.

Dave Doeren’s Career At NC State

Dave Doeren seemed to be in some trouble after the 2019 season when the Wolfpack went 4-8, but he’s stabilized things since then (more on that later) and the Wolfpack are a solid program. Historically, he’s their best coach since Dick Sheridan, who ran the NC State program from 1986 through 1992.

Here are the winning percentages of each NC State head coach in that span…

Dick Sheridan: .637
Dave Doeren: .575
Chuck Amato: .570
Tom O’Brien: .533
Mike O’Cain: .506

Doeren has done a good job overall, although his 2022 season won’t go as well as it should due to a key injury.

The Loss Of Devin Leary

Quarterback Devin Leary (6-1, 215, r-Jr.) has been a very good quarterback for NC State. Last season, he completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,433 yards along with 35 touchdowns and only five interceptions. However, he’s been lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

With Leary on the shelf, the talent level at quarterback drops substantially. Jack Chambers (5-10, 180, r-Sr.) will take the reins. He’s a graduate transfer who spent the last four seasons at Charleston Southern. He was a Second Team All-Big South selection at the FCS level, though his career numbers never indicated that he would make a successful jump to the FBS level, particularly the P5 level.

Over his career at Charleston Southern, he completed 57.1% of his passes for 5,761 yards, with 40 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. That’s a low completion percentage in this day and age, and not the greatest touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s a solid runner, but he struggled on the road against Syracuse in his first start, going 18-of-30 for only 160 yards while being sacked three times.

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That’s not a great outing, and the Wolfpack only came away with nine points. Offensive coordinator Tim Beck had a bye week to think about how he wants to do things differently, and playing at home should help. But it’s also questionable as to whether Chambers has the talent to be playing at the P5 level. Losing Leary is a massive blow. It’s going to be very difficult for the Wolfpack to score, which means they’ll have to rely on opposing offenses being equally inept.

The NC State Running Backs

Though Virginia Tech could see as many as three Wolfpack running backs on Thursday night, only two players usually get significant carries for them.

Jordan Houston (5-10, 192, Jr.): 76 carries, 304 yards, 4.0 ypc
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (6-0, 210, So.): 52 carries, 299 yards, 5.8 ypc, 3 TDs

The running backs have combined for just three rushing touchdowns all season, all by Sumo-Karngbaye.

Houston is a solid back, though probably not an every down player. He’s a decent receiver out of the backfield with 13 catches for 159 yards.

Sumo-Karngbaye can catch it as well – he has 12 receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown. However, he’s come out of nowhere as a running back after not recording a single carry as a freshman last season. He is perhaps the most dangerous NC State player with the ball in his hands.

The NC State Wideouts

The Wolfpack wide receivers haven’t been particularly productive, and two of the top three have averaged fewer than 10 yards per reception. Thayer Thomas (6-0, 195, r-Sr.) has been the main target with 27 receptions for 319 yards and two touchdowns. He caught 51 passes a year ago, and he’s second all-time on NC State’s career receiving touchdown list (22) behind only Torry Holt. He passed Jerricho Cotchery earlier this season.

Here are the next two guys on the depth chart…

Keyon Lesane (5-10, 190, Jr.): 20 catches, 183 yards, 9.2 avg, 1 TD
Darryl Jones (6-3, 195, r-Sr.): 14 catches, 128 yards, 9.1 avg, 1 TD

You may remember Jones. He is from Virginia Beach, and he originally signed with Maryland out of high school. Though he had only 49 career receptions at Maryland over four seasons, he did manage to torch Virginia Tech with four catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl before taking his talents to Raleigh. Those were the only two touchdowns he scored in his entire career in College Park.

Devin Carter (6-3, 215, r-Jr.) is a bigger threat to generate a big play. He has 13 receptions on the season while averaging 14.9 yards per catch.

With the exception of Thayer Thomas, this isn’t a group of wideouts that has proven to be very productive this season. In theory, they should be even more limited with a backup quarterback in the game.

The NC State Offensive Line

The Wolfpack offensive line has been pretty solid this season, particularly right up the middle. Their two best players are side-by-side in center Grant Gibson (6-1, 310, r-Sr.) and left guard Chandler Zavala (6-5, 325, r-Sr.). Zavala is from Woodbridge in Northern Virginia, though he attended junior college at Fairmont State out of high school before enrolling at NC State. Right tackle Timothy McKay (6-4, 315) is also a redshirt senior.

The Wolfpack play a 7-man rotation on the offensive line, they have some experience, and they’ve been a productive group. Here are the career snaps for each player…

LT Anthony Belton (6-6, 330, r-So.): 450
— OT Bryson Speas (6-3, 315, r-Sr.): 1,953
LG Chandler Zavala (6-5, 325, r-Sr.): 725
C Grant Gibson (6-1, 310, r-Sr.): 3,061
RG Dylan McMahon (6-4, 300, r-So.): 1,865*
— OG Derrick Eason (6-4, 315, r-Jr.): 810
RT Timothy McKay (6-4, 315, r-Sr.): 703

It’s quite a luxury when you can have a former starter with over 1,953 career snaps coming off the bench. That’s what NC State has in Bryson Speas, and he’s played both tackle spots and both guard positions in his career. This group will be a major test for Virginia Tech up front.

The Very Strong NC State Defense

In 2019, NC State finished No. 89 in FEI defense, and the Wolfpack went 4-8. Head coach Dave Doeren decided to make a change as a result. He elevated co-defensive coordinator Tony Gibson – who had been a Rich Rod assistant at WVU, Michigan and Arizona – to the defensive coordinator role. He also brought in some new assistants, including a couple of guys that Virginia Tech fans will be familiar with.

Brian Mitchell was in Blacksburg from 2016 through 2019. He’s credited with developing guys like Caleb Farley, Greg Stroman and Jermaine Waller, and he also played a role in the development of Brandon Facyson. He currently coaches the NC State cornerbacks.

Former Tech defensive line coach Charley Wiles was also brought in by Doeren. It’s been a great move for Wiles, and he’s really proven himself as a coach in Raleigh. He spent his entire career coaching in Bud Foster’s scheme, but had to adapt and learn to coach a 3-man line for NC State. He’s done a great job, and since he got a big raise, has family in Raleigh, and is a lot closer to his prime vacation spot (the beach), it’s been a great career move for him.

Here are State’s FEI defensive rankings since Doeren made those changes…

2020: No. 63
2021: No. 12
2022: No. 13

2020 saw a big improvement, and it would have been better had the NC State players had a spring practice and offseason to adjust to the new scheme, but COVID canceled all of that. We’ve since seen the big steps forward taken by the Wolfpack defense over the last two seasons.

With NC State ranking No. 13 in FEI defense, here is how Tech’s other opponents in 2022 compare…

ODU: No. 76
BC: No. 72
WVU: No. 96
UNC: No. 115
Pitt: No. 19
Miami: No. 63

(Note: Those rankings do not include games from this past weekend.)

On paper, this appears to be the best defense the Hokies have faced this season. Ironically, the Virginia Tech offense played its best against the best defense they’ve faced (Pitt), so hopefully there’s more of the same saved up for Thursday night.

NC State runs a 3-3-5 defense, and though the Wolfpack don’t have outstanding depth up front, their starters are good. Savion Jackson (6-2, 290, Jr.) was heavily recruited by Virginia Tech. He liked Charley Wiles, Justin Fuente and Bud Foster quite a bit and visited Blacksburg multiple times, but he eventually elected to stay home and play for NC State over the Hokies and Alabama. Ironically, he ended up playing for Wiles in Raleigh. He’s a very good, consistent end for the Wolfpack, particularly against the run.

The other starting defensive end is Davin Vann (6-2, 295, So.). He has 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks on the season, and he and Jackson do a great job of anchoring the defensive line. Corey Duren (6-4, 305, r-Sr.) and Joshua Harris (6-4, 325, r-Fr.) are solid at nose guard, and Harris looks like a future star in Raleigh.

You’ll recognize the names of some of NC State’s linebackers…

Drake Thomas (6-0, 230, Jr.): From the Raleigh area, he visited Tech, was offered and recruited by Bud Foster and Charley Wiles. He has been one of NC State’s best defensive players this season.

Payton Wilson (6-4, 240, r-Jr.): Wilson was a top 50 recruit from just northwest of Durham, and he ultimately picked NC State over UNC and the Hokies.

Isaiah Moore (6-2, 232, r-Sr.): Moore is from Richmond and played for LC Bird. Bud Foster evaluated him, but chose not to offer. NC State was his only P5 offer, and he’s turned into a very good player for the Wolfpack.

NC State’s starting secondary consists of four seniors and a redshirt-sophomore. Starting nickel Tyler Baker-Williams (6-0, 205, r-Sr.) has been very good this season for the Wolfpack, though he did miss some time with an injury. He returned last week for the Wolfpack’s loss to Syracuse, and he should be back into the swing of things for the Hokies on Thursday night.

In the secondary, cornerback Aydan White (6-0, 185, r-So.) has had a very good season, and he seems to be a rising star in the ACC. He leads the team with three interceptions and six passes defended. The Wolfpack have had four different safeties play 200+ snaps this season, so they are both experienced and talented back there. There isn’t a dominant player, but they’ve been solid across the board.

If this NC State defense has a weakness, it’s the fact that it doesn’t put much pressure on the quarterback. The group only has eight sacks in seven games, and its 1.14 sacks per game ranks No. 120 in the country.

Demographic Shifts Lead To More Talent In the Research Triangle

As the Raleigh-Durham area has seen such a massive boom in population over the last 30 years, we’ve seen the area become better and better in terms of football recruiting. As an example, here are the major NC State defenders who are from the area (including as far west as Greensboro and as far east as Rocky Mount)…

DE Savion Jackson: Clayton
DE Davin Vann: Cary
DT Joshua Harris: Roxboro
LB Drake Thomas: Wake Forest
LB Payton Wilson: Hillsborough
NIC Tyler Baker-Williams: Raleigh
CB Shyheim Battle: Rocky Mount
S Devan Boykin: Greensboro

The local influence can be felt up front on the DL and at LB especially with five of NC State’s six starters coming from the Raleigh-Durham area. The NC State coaches haven’t had to travel more than an hour away from campus to sign a large number of the team’s key defensive players, and some more are from the area between Raleigh and Charlotte.

Since 1990, the population of Durham has jumped from 136,611 to 285,527, while Raleigh has grown from 212,092 to 467,665. Overall, the Research Triangle has grown from 962,962 in 1990 to 2,043,867 in 2020. We’ve slowly seen the number of NFL players from the state of North Carolina grow over the years, with 50 in 2011 to 61 in 2021. That’s partially the result of population growth, and both NC State and UNC have taken advantage of that with their ability to keep most of the local talent either in Raleigh or Chapel Hill.

NC State Special Teams

Jordan Houston (5-10, 192, Jr.) and Julian Gray (5-11, 197, r-Fr.) have shared the kickoff return duties, though neither of them has more than three returns, and neither averages 20 yards per return. It doesn’t seem like a particularly dangerous duo, but it’s a very small sample size.

Thayer Thomas (6-0, 195, r-Sr.) is a reliable punt returner, and it’s a duty he’s performed his entire career. He averages 10.8 yards per return on 60 career returns with one touchdown thrown into the mix. He’s not what you would call spectacular, but he’s extremely reliable and can certainly bust a big one if you aren’t sharp in coverage.

Opponents are averaging 10.7 yards per punt return against NC State this season, so there is potentially some room there. Then again, Virginia Tech averages only 2.2 yards per return this year, which is No. 126 out of 130 teams, so it would be a surprise to see the Hokies make an impact in this part of the game. Shane McDonald (6-1, 200, r-Sr.) has been a solid punter with six of his 30 punts going for 50+ yards.

Not much needs to be said about placekicker Christopher Dunn (5-8, 170, r-Sr.), a midseason AP All-American. He’s a perfect 14-of-14 on the season. That includes eight field goals of beyond 40 yards and one beyond 50 with a long of 53. He is NC State’s career scoring leader, and he’s enjoying his best season in 2022.

Final Thoughts

“It’s going to be very difficult for the Wolfpack to score, which means they’ll have to rely on opposing offenses being equally inept.”

That’s a sentence I wrote earlier in the preview. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they’ve got one such offense. As we covered before the Miami game, this is perhaps the worst Virginia Tech offense in the history of advanced metrics, and that was even before they managed to score zero points in the first three quarters against Miami.

As it stands right now, here’s how the Hokies rank in the following advanced offensive metrics…

FEI: No. 113
Available Yards: No. 121

That’s just about as bad as it gets, and that offense will be facing arguably the best defense it will face all season, and they’ll have to do it on the road. I just don’t see the Hokies coming up with very many points in this one, and though NC State’s offense will be severely limited, does it really make sense to pick Virginia Tech to win?

Turnovers will be key. If either team can get short fields and pick up some cheap points, they’ll put themselves in the driver’s seat. If the Hokies can play a clean game with no turnovers, limit their penalties, and take advantage of good opportunities, they do have a good opportunity to win this game. But they’ve only been able to do that once this year, against a bad Boston College team at home. This one is against a very good NC State defense on the road.

Chris’s Prediction: NC State 20, Virginia Tech 10

Will Stewart’s Take: NC State’s situation reminds me of some of the Frank Beamer teams of the 1997-98 era: really good defense paired with mediocre offense. NC State didn’t have a mediocre offense until Devin Leary got hurt, of course. And much like the Al Clark-led teams of that era, the Pack might not be able to pass the ball, but they’ve got a good running game.

That’s all assuming that Jack Chambers doesn’t decide to have the game of his life Thursday night. You never know.

If Virginia Tech can stop the run, and if Chambers struggles in the passing game as expected, this game could get interesting. A turnover or a special teams play could turn things in Virginia Tech’s favor. The problem is that Virginia Tech is No. 126 in the nation in turnovers forced, No. 126 in punt returns, and No. 86 in kickoff returns, so hoping for a big defensive play or a big return is hoping, indeed. (Man, does this team do anything well? … yes. They’re No. 15 in the nation in 3^rd down defense.)

Even that might not be enough. In 1998, Virginia Tech went up to Boston College with a safety, Nick Sorensen, starting at QB due to injuries to Al Clark and Dave Meyer. Sorensen threw two interceptions and the Hokies fumbled seven times, losing four of them. Despite turning it over six times, the Virginia Tech won 17-0. NC State could do the same to Virginia Tech – be hopelessly inept on offense but still play such good defense that they win.

The unknown factor here is what adjustments each coaching staff makes coming out of the bye week. Has NC State retooled to run a better offense behind Jack Chambers? (Or will they start someone else?) Has Virginia Tech rejiggered the personnel and evaluated the playcalling enough to get the offense going? Could the Hokies finally play that one great game that makes you say, “Where’s that been all year?”

Sure, all that could happen. But I’m going to go with the 1998 VT-BC model. I think NC State won’t have a great offensive outing, but I also think the Hokies won’t be able to get enough going against a tough Wolfpack defense to overcome whatever State manages on offense.

Will’s Prediction: NC State 24, Virginia Tech 13

David Cunningham’s Take: I don’t feel great about this matchup between Virginia Tech and NC State, even with preseason ACC Player of the Year Devin Leary out for the year. 

The Hokies haven’t been able to score. A bye week should help, in theory, but until I see it on the field, I won’t believe it. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have one of the best defenses in the ACC.

I think it’ll be closer than many think, but I can’t see Tech winning on the road in Raleigh. The cover is in play, though. Against NC State, Tech is 8-2 against the spread since 1987. I think Tech covers the two touchdowns (-14 as of Monday night), but if the Hokies want a chance to pull off an upset, they’ll have to score at least four touchdowns and force a few turnovers along the way. Based on recent history, that seems unlikely.

David’s Prediction: NC State 26, Virginia Tech 13

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Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Miami Prediction Poll Results

Game Result: Miami 20, Virginia Tech 14

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2022 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game	Chris (8-3)	Will (7-4)	David (8-3)	Result
@ODU
BC
Wofford
WVU
@UNC
@Pittsburgh
Miami
@NC State
Georgia Tech
@Duke
@Liberty

2022 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (7-4) (record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game	Fan Poll	Result	Score
@ODU	Hokies Win by 11+		ODU 20, Hokies 17
Boston College	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 27, BC 10
Wofford	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 27, Wofford 7
WVU	Hokies Win by 1-10		WVU 33, Hokies 10
@UNC	UNC Wins by 11+		UNC 41, Hokies 10
@Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh Wins by 11+		Pittsburgh 45, Hokies 29
Miami	Hurricanes Win by 11+		Miami 20, Hokies 14
@NC State	Wolfpack Wins by 11+		NC State 22, Hokies 21
Georgia Tech	Hokies Win by 1-10		GT 28, Hokies 27
@Duke	Blue Devils Win by 11+		Duke 24, Hokies 7
@Liberty	Flames Win by 11+		Hokies 23, Flames 22