Assumptions:
A) If younger people 10-45 don't watch live sports on TV, they are not gonna bother to spend the time & money to attend live events.

B) Therefore, the older fan who attends live sporting events, is the gold or "the bread & butter" who is not easily replaced (except by members of his/her age group).

Questions:
--have schools like VT "shot themselves in the foot" by chasing long term season tix holders "out the door" to the proverbial couch, with draconian price increases?

--how easy is it gonna be to get these fed up (pissed off?) fans back inside the stadiums/arenas when replacement season tix buyers are not found? (Antecdotal evidence says it will be extremely difficult)

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1)

The sports with the oldest — and youngest — TV audiences
By Jason Notte
Published: Jun 30, 2017 1:34 pm ET
Of 24 sports looked at, all but women’s tennis has seen the average age of viewers increase

Top golfers seem to be getting younger, as the sport’s viewers get older. Jordan Spieth at the 2016 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club.
For those who still believe baseball is as American as mom and apple pie, just realize that the red, white and blue sport has some significant gray streaks.

Major League Baseball’s television audience is among the oldest in professional sports, according to data recently released by Street & Smith’s Sports Business Journal and Magna Global. The average age of a baseball viewer is 57, up from 52 in 2006. There won’t be a youth movement, either, as just 7% of baseball’s audience is below age 18.

In one way, baseball’s in great company. Of the 24 professional sports that the SBJ and Magna looked at, all but women’s tennis has seen the average age of viewers increase. On the other hand, the only sports with an average age higher than baseball’s are Nascar (58), men’s tennis (61), horse racing (63), figure skating (63) and any form of golf (63 to 64). They’re also the only sports drawing fewer young people, with the under-18 crowd ranging from 6% for women’s tennis and figure skating to a dismal 3% for golf.

Don’t laugh, football fans, because it isn’t as if your sport is looking much better. While the average NFL viewer is 50, only 9% of the NFL’s audience is kids under 18. Blame devices and attention spans all you’d like, but NFL viewership dropped by 8% on averagelast year, with Sunday and Monday night games down 10% to 12%.

Table: Where are the kids?
The average age of viewers of all but one of these sports has gone up in the past decade.

Sport Avg. age
in 2000 Avg. age
in 2006 Avg. age
in 2016
PGA Tour N/A 59 64
LPGA N/A 59 63
Horse racing 51 56 63
ATP tennis 51 56 61
NASCAR N/A 49 58
MLB 52 52 57
WNBA 42 49 55
WTA Tennis 58 63 55
Olympics 45 50 53
College football 47 48 52
College basketball 44 48 52
NFL 44 46 50
Boxing 45 47 49
NHL 33 42 49
NBA 40 40 42
MLS N/A 39 40
Source: Sports Business Journal
Granted, football still draws 16.5 million viewers on average and remains a ratings juggernaut, but a mix of aging audiences and reduced viewership can have considerable implications for sports broadcasting. Consider this: ESPN currently pays $700 million a year for the rights to Major League Baseball and $1.9 million annually for the rights to various National Football League properties. However, it pays just $45 million a year for the rights to Major League Soccer and US Soccer and, before renewing its deal in 2014, paid roughly $500 million for rights to the National Basketball Association.

However, ESPN DIS+0.51% has watched viewership drop from 100 million in 2011 to roughly 87 million this year. It’s gone through multiple rounds of layoffs — including 100 high-profile staffers earlier this year — while charging cable and satellite subscribers more than $9 a month just for ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU. It has bet big on live sports, but is starting to put its money toward sports with growth potential. The network pays just $42 million a year for the rights to college sports championships in everything but football and basketball and has already seen ratings for both the College World Series and Women’s College Softball World Series balloon this year. The SPJ didn’t include either among its age rankings, but ESPN has tracked digital streaming of those events to gauge younger viewership.

Since 2014, when ESPN and Turner Sports entered a nine-year deal that pays the National Basketball Association $24 billion for the right to air its games, the NBA Finals have averaged between 19.9 million and 20.3 million viewers each year. Those are numbers the league hadn’t seen since the last time Michael Jordan led the Chicago Bulls to the NBA Championship in 1998. They’re also bolstered by an NBA viewership with an average age of 42 and kids accounting for more than one in 10 viewers (11%).

The biggest growth potential, however, comes from soccer. Major League Soccer’s average audience of 308,000 last year is small by just about any standard, but up nearly 20% from a decade earlier. Fox Sports 1’s MLS average of 188,000 is similarly tiny, but more than double what the former Fox Soccer drew during its last year of MLS broadcasts in 2011. Most tellingly, the 696,000 that the MLS drew to five Fox network-television broadcasts last year was the league’s highest viewership ever — on any channel.

MLS viewers are an average of just 40 years old, and 15% are younger than 18. The only other leagues with that kind of following among kids are also soccer related: The English Premier League (43 on average, 10% under 18), international soccer like Fox and ESPN’s UEFA Champions League coverage (39 on average, 13% under 18) and Mexico’s Liga MX (39 on average, 17% under 18).

Fox pays just $30 million a year for its rights to MLS and $53 million for FIFA World Cup coverage, while NBC pays $160 million annually for the English Premier League. All of those rights deals come up for renewal in five years, right around the same time as NBC and Fox Sports’ combined $740 million deal for Nascar. With Nascar’s audience aging rapidly and its ratings slipping, its nine-figure deal starts to look bloated compared with what Fox, NBC and even ESPN are paying for rising soccer viewership and a younger core audience.

Nascar, Major League Baseball and even the NFL have long been able to slide on big U.S. viewership and even bigger television contracts. However, as a new generation cares less about designated hitters and pit stops than it does about the Cleveland Cavaliers/Golden State Warriors rivalry and Real Madrid’s Champions League run, all-American sports programming is being dragged into a more cosmopolitan era.

Jason Notte is a freelance writer based in Portland, Ore. His writing has appeared in The New York Times, The Huffington Post and Esquire. Notte received a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse University in 1998. Follow him on Twitter @Notteham.

See original version of this story

http://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/212CD540-5DB5-11E7-96E1-15232CBB5ADD

2)

Going gray: Sports TV viewers skew older

By John Lombardo & David Broughton, Staff Writers

Published June 5, 2017

Editor’s note: This story is revised from the print edition.

According to a striking study of Nielsen television viewership data of 24 sports, all but one have seen the median age of their TV viewers increase during the past decade.
How top properties stack up
Property Avg. age of TV viewers in 2016 Change since 2006
PGA Tour 64 +5
ATP 61 +5
NASCAR 58 +9
MLB 57 +4
WTA 55 -8
NFL 50 +4
NHL 49 +7
NBA 42 +2
MLS 40 +1
Source: Magna Global

The study, conducted exclusively for SportsBusiness Journal by Magna Global, looked at live, regular-season game coverage of major sports across both broadcast and cable television in 2000, 2006 and 2016. It showed that while the median age of viewers of most sports, except the WTA, NBA and MLS, is aging faster than the overall U.S. population, it is doing so at a slower pace than prime-time TV.

The trends show the challenges facing leagues as they try to attract a younger audience and ensure long-term viability, and they reflect the changes in consumption patterns as young people shift their attention to digital platforms.

“There is an increased interest in short-term things, like stats and quick highlights,” said Brian Hughes, senior vice president of audience intelligence and strategy at Magna Global USA. “That availability of
information has naturally funneled some younger viewers away from TV.”

Jeramie McPeek, former longtime digital media executive for the Phoenix Suns who now runs Jeramie McPeek Communications, a social media consultancy, also cited the movement of younger consumers to digital platforms.


Golf skews the oldest when looking at the average age of television viewers, and in response the sport has increased its digital initiatives.
Photo by: GETTY IMAGES
“It is smartphone and tablet usage by younger people who are on Snapchat or Instagram all day long and watching a lot of videos on YouTube and Netflix,” McPeek said. “Rarely are they watching TV and they are on their device constantly where they can watch videos on demand.”

None of the properties contacted contested the data, but most pointed to digital consumption among younger viewers, which was not included in the study and is growing rapidly. Some leagues, such as MLS, the NBA and WTA, will be bullish about the data while others such as the PGA Tour will continue to address the long-term viewership narrative around their sport.

Soccer skews the youngest on television, with a median age of 40 for MLS viewers in 2016, up from 39 in 2006. The PGA Tour skews the oldest, as the average age of its television viewers climbed from 59 in 2006 to 64 in 2016.
Adding on the years: Sports television viewership trends
Magna Global, on behalf of SportsBusiness Journal, analyzed three separate years of live, regular-season TV viewership on broadcast and cable sportscasts. Its analysis of Nielsen and U.S. Census data shows that golf circuits have the oldest viewers; soccer has the youngest.
Median age of television viewers, ranked oldest to youngest in 2016
Property 2000 2006 2016
PGA Tour Champions NA 59 64
PGA Tour NA 59 64
Figure skating 54 59 64
LPGA NA 59 63
Horse racing 51 56 63
ATP 51 56 61
Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series NA 49 58
Pro rodeo 51 53 57
MLB 52 52 57
WNBA 42 49 55
WTA Tour 58 63 55
Olympics 45 50 53
College football 47 48 52
College basketball (men's) 44 48 52
NFL 44 46 50
Boxing 45 47 49
NHL 33 42 49
UFC NA 34 49
Action sports 31 33 47
EPL NA NA 43
NBA 40 40 42
MLS NA 39 40
International soccer NA 35 39
Liga MX NA 32 39
Note: Numbers have been rounded.
Source: Magna Global's analysis of Nielsen and U.S. Census data.
Ranked by biggest change 2000-2016
The NHL has seen its median age jump by 16 years since 2000. The WTA Tour is the only property to see its median age decline during that 16-year span, as well as over the past decade. The NBA has stayed fairly consistent, with the median age of viewers climbing only two years since 2000.
Property Median age 2016 (change since 2000)
NHL 49 (+16)
Action sports 47 (+16)
WNBA 55 (+13)
Horse racing 63 (+12)
ATP 61 (+10)
Figure skating 64 (+10)
College basketball (men's) 52 (+8)
Olympics 53 (+8)
NFL 50 (+6)
Pro rodeo 57 (+6)
College football 52 (+6)
MLB 57 (+5)
Boxing 49 (+4)
NBA 42 (+2)
WTA Tour 55 (-3)
Notes: When calculating the changes between years, rounding may lead to the appearance of math discrepancies for college football. The full numbers were compared, and the difference then rounded. A comparison to 2000 is not available for the LPGA, MLS, PGA Tour, PGA Tour Champions, international soccer, Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Liga MX, UFC or EPL.
Ranked by biggest change 2006-2016
Property Median age 2016 (10-year change)
UFC 49 (+15)
Action sports 47 (+14)
Monster Energy NASCAR
Cup Series 58 (+9)
NHL 49 (+7)
Liga MX
39 (+7)
Horse racing 63 (+7)
WNBA 55 (+6)
ATP 61 (+5)
PGA Tour Champions 64 (+5)
PGA Tour 64 (+5)
Figure skating 64 (+5)
College football 52 (+5)
College basketball (men's) 52 (+4)
MLB 57 (+4)
NFL 50 (+4)
LPGA 63 (+4)
International soccer 39 (+4)
Pro rodeo 57 (+4)
Olympics 53 (+3)
Boxing 49 (+2)
NBA 42 (+2)
MLS 40 (+1)
WTA Tour 55 (-8)
Notes: When calculating the changes between years, rounding may lead to the appearance of math discrepancies for college football and MLB. The full numbers were compared, and the difference then rounded. A comparison to 2006 is not available for the EPL.

The NFL in 2016 had a median TV viewer age of 50, up four from 2006; MLB rose four years as well to 57; the NHL was up seven to 49; and the NBA was up two from 40.

Regardless of the property, the numbers highlight why so many sports properties feel a sense of urgency to attract younger fans.

“There are now so many different ways to engage with properties, and people are getting highlights whenever they want,” said Doug Perlman, chief executive officer of Sports Media Advisors. “People have to question whether younger viewers are less inclined to watch or less inclined to watch as long.”

Ty Votaw, executive vice president of global business affairs of the PGA Tour, summed up the tour’s demographics: “While we may be older, our demographics have been of considerable higher quality than other sports and we have aged considerably slower.”

Votaw also noted that audience trends today can’t be solely focused on the linear TV viewer and pointed to a younger audience on tour-run digital properties.

“When you go to PGATour.com, the median age is 55 and for our PGATour Live (over-the-top network), the median age is 20 years younger than on broadcast,” he said.

On the other end of the spectrum, MLS credits its younger average age to the game itself and its multicultural reach. Fifteen percent of its fan base is under the age of 18, the highest such rate of the U.S.-based leagues (see charts).

The NHL has seen the average age of its television viewers increase by 16 years since 2000.

“It is the coming of age of our league and the connection we have with multicultural millennials and with people who grew up with soccer as their first participatory activity,” said Howard Handler, chief marketing officer of MLS, which counts ESPN, Fox and Univision as the league’s TV partners. “If you get into bigger trends, our game is a two-hour experience that isn’t broken up by a bunch of TV timeouts. We consider our TV deals to be progressive. We are the only league that has an exclusive Hispanic game of the week. Yes, we have a young demographic, but we have a lot more work to do. We are still driving scale.”

The NBA has the next-youngest TV viewership with a median age of 42, up from 40 in both 2000 and 2006.

“The youthfulness you see in the NBA is by design,” said Pam El, the league’s chief marketing officer. “Children start playing basketball at a young age and we have a strong youth program. Our players are pop-star icons and have strong appeal to young people. They have huge followings and young people follow young people. But you don’t just want millennials. You want to continue to keep viewers in all age groups.”

Like other leagues, the NBA has seen a strong uptick in digital consumption.
Changes in youth viewership
Seventeen percent of Liga MX's TV viewers were under the age of 18 in 2016, the biggest such share of any of the 24 properties measured. MLS is second with 15 percent, while golf brings up the rear with about 3 percent.
Youth composition, ranked by total, ages 2-17 in 2016
Property 2000 2006 2016
Liga MX NA 20% 17%
MLS NA 16% 15%
International soccer NA 16% 13%
NBA 16% 14% 11%
Action sports 27% 23% 11%
Olympics 12% 9% 10%
EPL NA NA 10%
Boxing 9% 9% 10%
College football 10% 9% 9%
WNBA 16% 12% 9%
UFC NA 12% 9%
College basketball (men's) 12% 11% 9%
NFL 10% 10% 9%
NHL 16% 13% 8%
Rodeo 11% 10% 7%
MLB 9% 9% 7%
Figure skating 7% 11% 6%
WTA 5% 6% 6%
Horse racing 10% 7% 5%
Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series NA 8% 5%
LPGA NA 5% 4%
ATP 8% 6% 4%
PGA Tour NA 5% 3%
PGA Tour Champions NA 5% 3%
Note: Numbers have been rounded.
Ranked by biggest change since 2000
The NHL saw an 8 percentage point drop from 2000-2016. Only the WTA Tour and boxing saw an increase in its younger-aged TV audience composition over the past 16 years.
Property Ages 2-17 2016 (Change since 2000)
Action sports 11% (-16)
NHL 8% (-8)
WNBA 9% (-7)
NBA 11% (-4)
ATP 4% (-4)
Horse racing 5% (-4)
Rodeo 7% (-4)
College basketball (men's) 9% (-4)
MLB 7% (-2)
NFL 9% (-2)
Olympics 10% (-1)
College football 9% (-1)
Figure skating 6% (-1)
Boxing 10% (+1)
WTA Tour 6% (+1)
Notes: A comparison to 2000 is not available for the LPGA, MLS, PGA Tour, PGA Tour Champions, international soccer, Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Liga MX, UFC or EPL.
Numbers have been rounded.
Youth composition, ranked by 10-year change
Young viewers made up 8 percent of the NHL's overall TV audience in 2016, down from 13 percent a decade ago. The Olympics, boxing and college football were the only properties to see an increase in its youth composition, albeit barely 1 percent.
Property Ages 2-17 in 2016 (10-year change)
Action sports 11% (-12)
Figure skating 6% (-5)
NHL 8% (-5)
WNBA 9% (-3)
UFC 9% (-3)
Liga MX
17% (-3)
Rodeo 7% (-3)
NBA 11% (-3)
ATP 4% (-2)
Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series 5% (-2)
Horse racing 5% (-2)
International soccer 13% (-2)
College basketball (men's) 9% (-2)
MLB 7% (-2)
PGA Tour 3% (-2)
PGA Tour Champions 3% (-2)
MLS 15% (-1)
LPGA 4% (-1)
NFL 8% (-1)
WTA Tour 6% (-1)
College football 9% (+1)
Boxing 10% (+1)
Olympics 10% (+1)
EPL 10% (NA)
NA: A comparison to 2006 is not available for EPL.
Note: Numbers have been rounded.

“We know that people are going to consume our content differently, not just through broadcast or on one device,” El said. “We know how millennials consume content and we have developed our offerings to meet that demand. You go where they go and you will attract fans in that age group.”
Aging faster than the general population
The median age of the U.S. population was 37.7 years old in 2016, based on U.S. Census data, up from 35 years old in 2000. The median age of residents in U.S. markets that are home to a major league team has increased at the same rate as the rest of the country. However, the median age of TV viewers of nearly every sport has increased at a higher rate than that of the population. Only the NBA (median age rose by two years from 2000-2016, to 42) and WTA Tour (whose median age dropped by three years, to 55) have seen a change in median age that was less than the overall U.S. population. These are the five big league markets that saw the biggest increase in median age from 2000-2016, and the five that saw the least change in median age.
Market Current median age Change since 2000
Miami/Fort Lauderdale 41 +5
Detroit/Ann Arbor/Flint 40 +5
Green Bay 39 +5
Los Angeles/Riverside/Orange County 36 +4
Salt Lake City/Ogden 32 +4
Baltimore 38 +2
Orlando 37 +2
Seattle/Tacoma/Bremerton 37 +2
Tulsa 37 +2
Oklahoma City 35 +1
Prime-Time Comparison
Additional data provided by Magna shows that while the sports television audience is aging at a faster rate than the overall U.S. population, it is doing so at a slower pace than prime-time TV. Through mid-May, the median age of viewers of such programming on ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC, excluding sports and specials such as political debates, rose by a range of 8-11 years compared to the same time period a decade ago.
Median age of prime-time viewers
Network 2007 2017 Change
CBS 53 61 +8
NBC 49 57 +8
ABC 46 55 +9
FOX 40 51 +11

The WTA is the sole property studied to buck the trend toward older TV viewers. In 2016, the WTA’s median age TV viewer decreased to 55, down eight years from 2006. It was the only property that saw a drop in the median age of its TV viewers during the past decade.

WTA President Micky Lawler said that the increased social media participation by WTA players and the growth in the WTA’s OTT and digital offerings have attracted younger viewers to television.

“Our digital platform drives people to the linear live matches,” Lawler said. “We need to get to 35. We have a ways to go.”

While the study shows the progression toward older TV viewership in sports, it does not address any specific changes in the number of sports television viewers for any particular property. However, Magna data reveals that in 2016 the majority of properties saw an increase in the number of televised hours compared to 2006. For example, approximately 354 hours of live MLS action aired nationally last year, up tenfold compared to a decade prior. Only boxing and the PGA Tour Champions saw their number of TV hours decline between those two years.

Magna Global is part of the IPG Mediabrands family and has no contractual relationships with any sports league or property in the study.

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/06/05/Research-and-Ratings/Viewership-trends.aspx?