Here's what I seem to have figured out, if we win.

If Duke doesn't go 0-2, we are at best 6th.

-- if UVa and Miami both lose, we are alone in 6th at 11-7.
-- if UVa wins and Miami loses, we lose the tiebreak with UVa at 11-7 so the Wahoos are #6 and we are #7
-- if Miami wins and UVa loses, we lose the tiebreak with Miami at 11-7 so the Canes are #6 and we are #7
-- if Miami and UVa both win, the 3-way tie break puts Miami in 6th, us in 7th, and UVa in 8th.

Now if Duke goes 0-2 and also finishes 11-7:
-- if Miami and UVa lose, we are tied with Duke for 5th/6th and we get 5th because we beat them
-- if Miami wins and UVa loses, we are tied for 5/6/7 with Miami and Duke. We get 5th because we are 2-1 vs Mia/Duke; Miami is 2-2 vs Duke/VT so they get 6th; Duke is 1-2 vs Mia/VT so they get 7th
-- if UVa wins and Miami loses we are tied with UVa and Duke for 5/6/7. We are 2-1 among those teams so we get 5th; Duke is 1-1 among those teams so they get 6th; UVa is 1-2 among those teams so they get 7th.
-- if UVa and Miami both win it's a 4 way tie between us, UVa, Duke, and Miami for 5/6/7/8. We are 3-2 against the other 3 teams so we get 5th. Duke is 2-2 against the other 3 and Miami is 3-3 against the other 3, so Duke and Miami get 6th/7th in some order, who cares. UVa is 2-3 against the other three so they get 8th.

So basically, if Duke loses tonight (possibly without Allen and Jefferson) and to UNC, and we win, we get 5th place NO MATTER WHAT UVa and Miami do.

I'm rooting against Duke. Case closed.,