The Bubble Watch team on ESPN (there have been several authors over the years) tends to be very very conservative in determining that someone is a lock. Still a little surprising, but I think we will be locked in before we even play Wake. Its tempting for the writer to think the situation is fluid this time of year, when its really not. It helps get clicks. You don't automatically move up the chain if you win nor do you fall just because you lost one more game.