The only thing I would change is your percentages at the end (would probably add 25 to both of them).

For some reason, it seems like everyone is counting on winning the majority of the remaining games because they're at home or on the road against beatable teams (Pitt, BC). That is no given in this conference. The bottomline is by not getting at least 1 of NC State, ND, and Miami, we have left ourselves with very little margin for error. If you're going to lose all the games you're supposed to lose, then you have to win all the ones you're supposed to win. I think the challenge of that is being underestimated.