It is that most understand the "rule of thirds" when it comes to recruiting. If a team wants to target primarily 3-star recruits and still has expectations of being competitive against (perceived) more talented teams (aka teams that target 4-star or 5-star recruits), then it needs to hope that more than a third of the recruits in a given class exceed expectations. I am not saying it is impossible to do in a given recruiting class because it can happen. However, the odds of it happening consistently from class to class become longer and longer with each given recruiting class.

Teams that target primarily 4-star and 5-star recruits don't notice the misses as much because the "rule of thirds" states that each year the team should have 1/3 recruits that meet expectations and 1/3 recruits that exceed expectations. So over time the should have built up enough depth to the point where fans don't notice any drop in talent. Even the 1/3 of recruits that don't live up to expectations may still be a productive contributor to the team because they end up playing 1 star below their projected talent level. Most fans would be fine if a projected 5-star recruit ended up playing like a projected 4-star recruit. Heck they might not even notice the 1 star difference at times.