the SEC, and Clemson, and OSU, in any season are remote at best. First you have to get into the playoff, and future committees might look at askance at Oklahoma after its recent performances, and then you have to win two games against the best of the best.

Assume the odds of getting a playoff bid are 70% for OK (dominate B12 with one loss seems to be the formula), and 30% of beating each playoff opponent (Oklahoma will not out-talent, Clemson, LSU, OSU, Alabama). With those odds, OK is not winning a NC in the next five years.

If Riley were smart he'd cash in with the pros if he gets a decent offer. The NFL does not have the huge talent disparity that can happen in the NCAA. If he likes coaching college kids that's a good reason to stay. If he is foregoing a huge NFL payday to win an NCAA championship, he's making a mistake. Odds are very strongly against that.