And after 2 kneel-downs and without dropping a slippery ball in the rain with a freshman center hiking to a young QB? And after factoring in any penalties on the three snaps that might have moved the ball back? I agree the odds are probably still better than 75%, but without having the data for these events and multiplying the odds for each event (guessing about .95 x .95 x 95 = .857), the difference in odds is not as big as it appears, certainly not 96 to 75.