Virginia Tech-UVA Preview: Hokies Face Hoos With Bowl Game On The Line

• Virginia Tech at UVA: Saturday, November 25 at 3:30 ET (ACC Network) from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA
• Betting Line: Virginia Tech -3
• Roster cards: Click here
• Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
• Charlottesville Weather: Click here
• Gameday Information: Click here

Virginia Tech (5-6, 4-3 ACC) heads to Charlottesville to face UVA (3-8, 2-5) with bowl eligibility on the line for the Hokies. This isn’t the first time this story has been written, as the Hokies have needed to beat the Hoos on the final weekend of the season to quality for a bowl on multiple occasions. They have succeeded every time: 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2021.

There was certainly plenty of drama in there. The Hokies won on a last second field goal in 2012. The 2014 contest featured five lead changes and some terrific in-game heroics from quarterback Michael Brewer. 2015 was Frank Beamer’s last regular season game. 2018 went to overtime, and the Hokies won on a fumble recovery. 2021 featured a UVA pass to an offensive tackle and JC Price smoking a cigar in Scott Stadium. What will we remember about the 2023 game?

As much as we talk about all of those games, it’s important to remember that these current head coaches, coordinators, and most assistant coaches had nothing to do with those past contests. With the transfer portal these days, even many of the players weren’t involved, even in a recent game like 2021. This is almost a completely different cast of characters, and how each side handles it mentally will go a long way towards deciding who wins.

Virginia has played better football down the stretch. They knocked off Duke this past weekend, though that Duke team is on its fourth quarterback of the season. They also upset UNC. In between, they played Louisville very tough, but they also got completely hammered by Georgia Tech at home in a game that wasn’t competitive at all. The Hoos are better now than they were in September, but how much better? Their performance seems to vary greatly from week to week.

The Hokies can get back to a bowl game with a win this weekend. Meanwhile, it’s been a tough season for Tony Elliott’s group, but a victory would give them positive momentum heading into the offseason, with the added bonus of depriving Virginia Tech of a bowl game. It’s an interesting matchup.

UVA Quarterback Anthony Colandrea: How Good Is He, And Will He Start?

Anthony Colandrea (6-0, 180, Fr.) is a true freshman who has provided a major spark for the UVA offense, but who has also had a major issue with turnovers at times. He’s every bit as frustrating as he is exciting, but the good news for UVA fans is that he seems to be playing better right now, and he’s got three seasons of eligibility remaining.

The first thing you need to know about Colandrea is that he’s very mobile. He ran for 66 yards on nine carries against Duke last week, and had 89 yards on 14 carries the week before against Louisville. It’s not just his rushing yards, either. Many of his biggest plays in the passing game have come off scrambles. He’s great at keeping plays alive. For the season, he’s got 238 rushing yards and averages 3.8 yards per carry, but it’s what he does in the passing game after he scrambles that concerns me the most.

Colandrea’s passing numbers have been about as good as you can ask from a true freshman who has been in and out of the lineup thanks to injuries to original starter Tony Muskett. He’s 125-of-200 (62.5%) for 1,715 yards, with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s made a lot of big time plays for the Hoos this season.

He can also be frustrating with his tendency to place the football in the hands of the other team. However, it’s important to note that he’s doing a much better job of protecting the football now. Here is his turnover worthy play percentage on a game-by-game basis…

• Tennessee: 14.3%
• JMU: 5.9%
• Maryland: 10.4%
• NCSU: 4.8%
• GT: 4.3%
• Louisville: 0%
• Duke: 0%

He’s ranged from really bad to excellent, but he probably played his best game of his college career this past weekend against Duke.

The Hokies have to do a good job on Colandrea on Saturday. At his best, he is capable of torching Tech and winning the game. At his worst, he’s also capable of tossing the Hokies the game.

All that is assuming Colandrea starts. Tony Muskett (6-2, 206, Sr.) has been the more consistent player this year. His highs haven’t been as high, but his lows haven’t been as low. He quarterbacked the Hoos to their victory over UNC, and he went 20-of-30 for 208 yards, with one touchdown and an interception while rushing for 66 yards on 12 carries.

Muskett was injured very early in the Georgia Tech game, which forced Colandrea into action. Colandrea was also forced into action very early this year thanks to another Muskett injury. If Muskett is available on Saturday, who will the coaches choose? So far, they’ve gone with Muskett, but it’s possible Colandrea’s recent performances will change their mind on Saturday. If Muskett is available. We don’t know anything about his status right now.

The UVA Running Game: Recent Progress

The teams who have beaten Virginia Tech this season all have good running games. Even NC State, though their numbers aren’t good overall, have found a combination of Brennan Armstrong and KC Concepcion that has turned out to be very effective. However, UVA has struggled to run the football this season…

• Yards per game: 124.73, No. 101 out of 133
• Yards per carry: 3.23, No. 123 out of 133

Those numbers aren’t good, but the Hoos have  improved this facet of their game in recent weeks. Let’s take a look and see what they’ve accomplished since their win over UNC…

• UNC: 54 carries, 228 yards, 4.2 ypc
• Miami: 45 carries, 138 yards, 3.1 ypc
• GT: 29 carries, 119 yards, 4.1 ypc
• Louisville: 36 carries, 120 yards, 3.3 ypc
• Duke: 41 carries, 170 yards, 4.1 ypc
• Totals:  205 carries, 775 yards, 3.8 ypc

That’s not great overall, but it’s better than what they accomplished in the first half of the season, when they averaged just 2.7 ypc in their first six games. I think it’s key for the Hokies to do what Georgia Tech did…jump on the Hoos early and take the running game out of the equation.

Running back Perris Jones leads the team with 398 rushing yards, but he suffered a severe injury in the Louisville game and is out for the foreseeable future (so he’s not listed as their rushing leader on our roster card). That leaves two other running backs…

• Kobe Pace (5-10, 215, Sr.): 117 carries, 368 yards, 3.1 ypc, 1 TD
• Mike Hollins (5-9, 204, r-Sr.): 79 carries, 276 yards, 3.5 ypc, 7 TDs

With both of UVA’s backs averaging under four yards per carry, the Hoos aren’t going to be hitting the Hokies with a tremendous amount of running back talent. If Tech can slow down Colandrea, the UVA running game will be limited.

Top One-Two Punch At Wide Receiver for UVA

We keep saying each week how the Virginia Tech cornerbacks haven’t been challenged very often this year. That is going to change this week, as UVA will be throwing to one of the most prolific wide receivers in the country. Their No. 2 option isn’t half bad, either.

Malik Washington (5-8, 194, r-Sr.) isn’t very tall, but he’s had a dominant season in Charlotteville. He’s got 96 catches for 1,311 yards and nine touchdowns. He ranks second in the nation in both receptions and receiving yards, and in a tie for 15^th in receiving touchdowns. The Northwestern transfer will line up mostly in the slot, although he will also line up on the outside about five times per game. He’ll mostly be working against zone coverage in the slot, so the Hokies will have to be very disciplined.

Malachi Fields (6-4, 220, Jr.) has had a breakout season for UVA. After catching only 16 passes in his first two seasons combined, he has 52 receptions for 722 yards and three touchdowns in 2023. For comparison, that’s 15 more catches than Tech’s leading receiver, Jaylin Lane (37 catches, 524 yards). He’s a very good player, but sometimes gets overshadowed by his more prolific teammate.

Outside of Washington and Fields, UVA doesn’t seem to have much. Running backs Pace and Hollins are the only other players on the team with double digit catches (16 and 10, respectively). Tight end Sackett Wood Jr. (6-4, 240, Sr.) has nine catches but can’t be considered a major threat.

Up Front for Virginia

The Hoos haven’t been very effective up front at various points this season, as you can tell from their 3.23 yards per carry average. They also rank No. 118 out of 133 in sacks allowed per game, and that’s despite having a couple of quarterbacks who are capable scramblers.

Watch the right side of the line, where the Hoos have been particularly bad. Check out the PFF season pass blocking grade for this side of the line…

• RG Ty Furnish (6-3, 282, Jr.): 47.2
• RT Blake Steen (6-5, 340, So.): 44.9

Ouch. Another tackle who has seen plenty of action on the right side is Ugonna Nnanna (6-4, 309, Sr.). In over 300 snaps this season, his pass blocking grade is an incredible 15.3. Nnanna only played four snaps against Duke, though, and didn’t see action at all against Miami and Georgia Tech.

Center Brian Stevens (6-2, 296, r-Sr.) has been UVA’s best and most consistent lineman. He has had a good season, and he’s an FCS transfer  out of Dayton, where he was one of the top linemen in the country at that level.

Virginia Tech should be able to generate some pressure this week, but will they be able to corral Colandrea when they do?

The UVA Defense: Run Stopping Issues

We’ve talked a lot recently about whether or not Tech’s strengths offensively have aligned with the opposition’s weakness. Against BC, they did. Against NC State, they did not. This week, they do. Check out UVA’s defensive numbers…

• Rush Defense: No. 115 out of 133
• Yards per Carry: No. 117
• Pass Defense: No. 61
• Opp. QB Rating: No. 60
• Total Defense: No. 98
• DF+: No. 71
• Available Yards: No. 72

The efficiency numbers are a bit better than the traditional metrics, but I bolded the areas that should stand out to you. This defense can’t stop the run. After combining for just 11 carries against NC State, Bhayshal Tuten and Kyron Drones should be nice and fresh for their trip to Charlottesville.

The Hoos are better against the pass, but they haven’t been dominant, so the Hokies should still be able to find some success there. It all starts with rush defense, though. Tech has had its way with teams who struggle to stop the run…

• Pitt: No. 82
• Wake: No. 60
• Syracuse: No. 65
• BC: No. 124

As a comparison, Tech is No. 83 nationally against the run, and they allow over half-a-yard less per carry than UVA. The Hokies haven’t exactly been stout against the run, but they are miles ahead of UVA.

True freshman linebacker Kam Robinson (6-2, 227, Fr.) has been very good at the middle linebacker spot for the Hoos. He’s a player I wanted very badly in the recruiting process. Other than that, the UVA linebackers have been very poor this year. James Jackson (6-3, 236, Jr.) has been like Tech’s linebackers, except worse, and anyone else who has gotten reps hasn’t been very good, either. The Hoos have also struggled on the edge.

This unit has also been susceptible to running quarterbacks at times, like the Boston College defense. Here is a sampling…

• NC State’s Brennan Armstrong: 15 carries, 64 yards, 4.3 ypc
• BC’s Thomas Castellanos: 16 carries, 78 yards, 4.9 ypc
• W&M’s Darius Wilson: 13 carries, 74 yards, 5.7 ypc
• GT’s Haynes King: 7 carries, 83 yards, 11.9 ypc

Those are the most mobile QBs the Hoos have faced this season, and they all did well on the ground. This seems as if it could be a big game for Kyron Drones.

This UVA defense is a lot closer to Boston College than it is to Louisville, NC State or Florida State. This is a very favorable matchup for the Hokies, and they need to take advantage of it to control the clock and dictate the tempo of the game.

Injuries On Defense

One of the reasons the Hoos have struggled on defense is because they’ve suffered a number of injuries. Only seven defenders have played in all 11 games, and only 11 defenders have played in 10. A few of those guys are backups, too, which means UVA has been without some starters for multiple games.

As a comparison, the Hokies have also had their share of injuries at safety, but Tech has still been able to play 17 defensive players in all 11 games, with a further five seeing action in 10 of the 11 games. We know that various injuries to Nasir Peoples and Jalen Stroman have had a big impact on Tech’s defense at times, so it makes sense that even more injuries have had an even greater impact on UVA.

Virginia Defensive Players To Watch

Besides Kam Robinson at middle linebacker, here are a few defensive players to watch…

FS Jonas Sanker (6-1, 210, Jr.): Sanker has been the Hoos’ most consistent defensive player this season. He leads the team with 97 tackles (which says a bit about the run defense) and he’s also broken up 10 passes.

CB Coen King (6-0, 194, r-Sr.): Overall King has been a good corner for UVA this year, but his performances have tailed off recently, which makes me wonder if he’s one of those banged up guys. Over the last four games, opponents are 23-of-29 for 293 yards and three touchdowns when targeting Coen. He was good early this year, but right now…not so much.

CB Sam Westfall (5-10, 183, r-Sr.) The SMU transfer has been UVA’s most consistent cornerback this season.

Overall, this UVA defense just doesn’t make many negative plays. Here’s how they rank in “havoc” plays…

• TFL: No. 113 out of 133
• Sacks: No. 132 (yikes)
• FF: No. 75
• INT: No. 82

Overall, this defense is basically the spitting image of the Boston College defense. They don’t make any plays, and they get gashed on the ground.

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Before we make our staff picks, what’s your prediction?

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Virginia Tech-UVA Final Thoughts

I think this UVA team is sort of the opposite of Boston College, offensively. The Eagles were a sub-par football team who were picking up injuries at critical positions, but all of that was hidden behind a good record thanks to playing a bad schedule. Meanwhile, the Hoos have a bad record, but they seem to be improving as a football team. Right now, at this moment in time, they are a better football team than BC. It doesn’t matter that their records say otherwise, and it doesn’t matter that BC beat them in a close one back in September. The only thing that matters is right now.

Of course, defensively they are very similar to Boston College. That bodes well for Virginia Tech, who whipped up on the Eagle defense all day long en route to 48 points and 600 yards of total offense. Statistically, there just isn’t much difference between the defense Tech faced in Chestnut Hill and the defense they will face this weekend.

An improved offense has helped UVA play better football recently. That said, I think Duke would have beaten them with Riley Leonard, in which case we’re talking about a 2-9 football team here. They’ve made improvements, but so have the Hokies.

Let’s look at Virginia Tech’s results since the post-Marshall offensive scheme change. Take a look at the F+ rankings of each opponent (that’s a combination of S&P+ and FEI), and the result…

• Pitt: No. 83 (W)
• FSU: No. 6 (L)
• Wake Forest: No. 87 (W)
• Syracuse: No. 71 (W)
• Louisville: No. 18 (L)
• Boston College: No. 77 (W)
• NC State: No. 40 (L)
• UVA: No. 82 (?)

The Hokies lost to the three best teams that they faced, and they handled everyone else by 17 points or more. UVA, coincidentally, is No. 82. They are closer to Pitt, Wake, Boston College and Syracuse than they are to FSU, Louisville and NC State. That being said, the Hoos have outperformed that No. 82 ranking in recent weeks, with the exception of the Georgia Tech game.

UVA has been bad enough that I could see the Hokies going in there and doing exactly what they did to the Pitts and BCs of the world. However, they’ve also been good enough recently that I could see them showing up and ruining Tech’s day. Does the good Anthony Colandrea show up, or the one who turns the ball over every possession? Does he even start? Do the Hokies start fast, or do they start slow? I think the start is critical. I think Tech’s offense holds a big matchup advantage over the UVA defense, but if the VT defense doesn’t show up and the Hoos can take a two-score lead, that will negate the advantage of the Hokie offense.

In the end, I’m going with the Virginia Tech trend. They’ve lost to the best ACC teams they’ve faced, and they’ve beaten the worst by double digits. UVA’s defense still hasn’t played well the last few weeks, even when they’ve won, and the Tech offense is only struggling when they face a top-level defense. That doesn’t describe John Rudzinski’s group. Those guys just can’t stop the run, and that plays into the hands of the Hokies. BC gameplan all over again, and Drones will have a big game.

Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Virginia 24

Will Stewart’s Take: What if you took NC State’s offense and Boston College’s defense and made Virginia Tech play them on the road? We’re about to find out.

UVA’s offense is like NC State’s in that they have a dynamic running QB and a great wide receiver who together control the stats. UVA’s defense is like BC’s in that they can’t stop the run.

I already said in last week’s NC State preview that I’m picking Virginia Tech to win this game, so there’s no drama there. The drama is all about how that’s going to happen.

It will happen with Virginia Tech running the football, staying committed to the run, and not turning it over. Defensively for the Hokies, unless UVA’s coaching staff is stupid (they’re not), they’ll take their cues from NC State’s offensive gameplan and put that strategy to work.

Special teams and turnovers can always throw things outta whack, but I expect this to be a relatively high-scoring game. VT scored 48 points against Boston College, and NC State scored 35 against the Hokies. Over the last ten games of the series, Virginia Tech has outscored UVA by an average of 27-19, but this one will go higher than that.

Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Virginia 30

David Cunningham’s Take: Virginia Tech has proven it can handle teams of their caliber or worse this season, and UVa is another one of those opponents. I expect this one to be pretty close, though.

If Colandrea starts, the Cavaliers can use a gameplan similar to NC State in letting him and Washington create, just like the Wolfpack did with Brennan Armstrong and Kevin Concepcion. At the same time, the Hokies have gashed teams on the ground this year — look no further than Boston College — and Virginia allowed plenty of rush yards against Georgia Tech at the beginning of November.

In my opinion, this one comes down to the Virginia Tech coaching staff. Can that group get the team ready to play, play to its strengths and not get sucked into the heat of the rivalry? I think yes, which is why I’m picking the Hokies. I expect more of a high-scoring game, albeit a close one, but I think if Tech can get Bhayshul Tuten the ball and let Kyron Drones control the game, the rest will take care of itself.

David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 27

Andy Bitter’s Take: The Hokies have beaten up on bad teams this year, running away from Pitts (ranked 87th in SP+), Wake Forest (92nd), Syracuse (70th) and Boston College (76th). Well, Virginia ranks 96th. That’s not to say the Cavaliers can’t or won’t put up a fight. They’re hit-and-miss on that front, sometimes showing up and shocking UNC or hanging with Louisville and other times no-showing against Maryland and Georgia Tech.

Here’s guessing it’s somewhere in the middle Saturday. It feels like there will be points in this one. Both of these offenses are capable when they feature the right players and both of these defenses are suspect. It might come down to who makes fewer mistakes with the ball. Drones has been pretty good with ball security when he puts it in the air. Colandrea is a bit more cavalier with the ball. For that reason, I like Tech to win by a little over a touchdown and get back to a bowl game. 

Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 23

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Last Game’s Virginia Tech-NC State Prediction Poll Results

Game Result: NC State 35, Virginia Tech 28

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2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game	Chris (9-4)	Andy (9-4)	David (9-4)	Will (8-5)	Result
ODU
Purdue
@Rutgers
@Marshall
Pittsburgh
@FSU
Wake Forest
Syracuse
@Louisville
@BC
NC State
@UVa
Tulane

2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (10-3) (record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game	Fan Poll	Result	Score
ODU	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 36, ODU 17
Purdue	Hokies Win by 1-10		Purdue 24, Hokies 17
@Rutgers	Rutgers Wins by 1-10		Rutgers 35, Hokies 16
@Marshall	Marshall Wins by 1-10		Marshall 24, Hokies 17
Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10		Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21
@Florida State	FSU Wins by 11+		FSU 39, Hokies 17
Wake Forest	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 30, Deacs 13
Syracuse	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 38, Orange 10
@Louisville	Cardinals Win by 11+		Cardinals 34, Hokies 3
@BC	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 48, Eagles 22
NC State	Hokies Win by 1-10		Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28
@Virginia	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 55, Hoos 17
Tulane	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 41, Green Wave 20