Virginia Tech-Boston College Preview: Hokies Head To Chestnut Hill

• Virginia Tech vs. Boston College: Saturday, November 11 at noon ET (ACC Network) from Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, MA.
• Betting Line: Virginia Tech -1.5
• Roster cards: Click here
• Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
• Boston Weather: Click here

Virginia Tech (4-5, 3-2 ACC) heads back out on the road to face a Boston College (6-3, 3-2) team that has won five games in a row. The Eagles have rebounded from last year’s 3-9 record to already be bowl eligible with three games remaining. They’ll be looking for more, however, as they’ll see very winnable games against the Hokies and Pitt coming up on their schedule.

Head coach Jeff Hafley will have the Eagles in a bowl game for the third time in his four seasons. However, they’ve never won more than six games during his tenure, so if they can beat the Hokies this weekend, they’ll have reached a new milestone.

Here is how BC arrived at that 6-3 record.

• 27-24 overtime loss to Northern Illinois (4-5).
• 32-28 victory over FCS Holy Cross, a very well-coached FCS program.
• 31-29 loss to Florida State (9-0). BC came roaring back to give the ‘Noles a major scare.
• 56-28 loss at Louisville (8-1). That was a tough back-to-back stretch for BC.
• 27-24 win vs. UVA (2-7). BC faced another deficit, and this time completed the comeback.
• 27-24 win at Army (3-6). 27-24 seems to be the preferred score of Boston College football.
• 38-23 win at Georgia Tech (5-4). This is BC’s most impressive win of the season.
• 21-14 win vs. UConn (1-8). The Eagles struggled against one of the worst teams in the country.
• 17-10 win at Syracuse (4-5): Syracuse had to play the backup QB, who tossed four interceptions.

I’d argue that the best game Boston College has played came in the home loss to Florida State, but how much of that was FSU not being dialed in for a sleepy noon game? The win over Georgia Tech was impressive, but which Georgia Tech team showed up that day? The one that beat Miami, or the one that got smoked by Bowling Green?

Most teams will have a couple of performances each year that are either better or worse than their normal performances, and those should probably be thrown out the window. In general, Boston College has been a team that has been barely pulling out wins against bad football teams. Their five FBS victims are a combined 15-30, and they’ve beaten them by an average of seven points per game. With five of their six wins being very close, and two of their three losses going down to the wire, there’s no reason to expect anything other than a close game on Saturday.

The problem for the Hokies is that they are 1-10 on the road under Brent Pry, and they have really struggled in one-score games (1-6). If both of those trends continue, Virginia Tech will drop to 4-6 this weekend. But is that what we think will happen? We’ll let you know at the end of the article. First, let’s take a closer look at Boston College.

Stop Castellanos, Stop Boston College

Quarterback Thomas Castellanos (5-10, 196, So.) spent his freshman season at UCF before transferring to Boston College in the offseason. He’s undersized, but he makes the offense go. He’s still developing as a passer, but he’s been extremely effective with his legs this season. Here’s what he’s accomplished each game on the ground…

Northern Illinois: 9 carries, 67 yards, 1 TD
Holy Cross: 16 carries, 69 yards
Florida State: 16 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD
Louisville: 10 carries, 49 yards, 1 TD
Virginia: 16 carries, 78 yards
Army: 31 carries, 142 yards, 4 TDs
Georgia Tech: 13 carries, 128 yards, 2 TDs
UConn: 14 carries, 45 yards,
Syracuse: 22 carries, 87 yards, 1 TD
Total: 147 carries, 760 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, 10 TDs

To put into perspective what kind of a workhorse Castellanos has been this season, he’s got more carries than Virginia Tech starting running back Bhayshul Tuten (121).

That may have come with a price, however. His yards per carry has been down the last two games, and the passing game has also been ineffective in BC’s last two contests. With 80 carries in the last four games, perhaps the 196-pounder is a bit worn down.

Castellanos hasn’t been as dynamic as a passer: 57.9% for 1,714 yards, with 12 touchdowns and an interception. That’s a pass efficiency rating of 127.9, ranked No. 77 in the country. (Kyron Drones has a rating of 124.5, ranked No. 85 in the country.)

Castellanos is still a very young player. However, he has shown that he’s capable of going off through the air, as when he threw for 305 yards against Florida State, to go along with his 95-yard rushing performance. It was perhaps the best individual game by an ACC quarterback this year, especially considering the competition.

I’m a big fan of Castellanos. In high school, he was a four-year starter in the state of Georgia where he threw for 7,110 yards and ran for a further 3,681 and was named to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution Super 11 team. If you haven’t seen him play this year, here he is against the Florida State defense:

My biggest question is about his health. He had to come out of the UConn game at one point. Has he been run into the ground at this point in the season? Or will he be 100% against Virginia Tech this weekend? The BC offense isn’t nearly as formidable if he’s not 100%.

The Improvement Of The Boston College Offensive Line

Last season Boston College had one of the worst offensive lines in football. Virginia Tech only won three games, but one of them came against the Eagles, and it was largely because the Hokies thrashed the Eagles up front from start to finish.

Here’s where BC ranked nationally in rushing yards, yards per carry, sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed in 2022:

• Yards: No. 131 out of 131
• YPC: No. 131
• Sacks allowed: No. 126
• TFL allowed: No. 119

That’s as bad as it gets. Here’s where they rank in 2023:

• Yards: No. 10 out of 133
• YPC: No. 40
• Sacks allowed: No. 18
• TFL allowed: No. 31

I doubt there is another team in college football who has made that much improvement in those four areas in just one season. To throw another couple of numbers at you, here are their improvements in yards per game and yards per carry:

• Yards: 63.25 to 211.22
• YPC: 2.09 to 4.67

The Eagles have more than doubled their yards per carry and more than tripled their rushing yards per game. Certainly Castellanos accounts for quite a bit of that, but their offensive line has also improved. They’ve improved it in three ways.

First, they got outstanding offensive guard Christian Mahogany (6-3, 322, r-Sr.) back from injury. His loss was devastating last year. Second, their returning players got better. Returning starting tackle Ozzy Trapilo (6-8, 313, r-Jr.) and center Drew Kendall (6-4, 292, r-So.) have improved tremendously. Third, they added two new starters from the transfer portal. Tackle Logan Taylor (6-7, 308, r-So.) came from UVa, while guard Kyle Hergel (6-2, 315, r-Sr.) arrived from Texas State. Though there’s still not much depth, it’s a much-improved group. Here are their PFF grades so far this season…

• LT Taylor: 70.4
• LG Hergel: 66.2
• C Kendall: 68.0
• RG Mahogany: 71.4
• RT Trapilo: 75.6

That’s a solid group across the board, and opposing teams haven’t been able to push Boston College around like they did last year.

New Offensive Coaches…New Results

After last season’s 3-9 record, Hafley shook up his coaching staff, and hires at Associate HC for Offense, offensive coordinator, and offensive line coach have been particularly beneficial.

OC: Rob Chudzinski is in his first year as Associate HC for the Offense after serving as Hafley’s special assistant from 2020-22. He’s been the offensive coordinator for the Colts, Panthers and Browns, and was also head coach of the Browns for a year. He was also the OC for that dominant Miami Hurricane offense from 2001-03.

OC: Steve Shimko was elevated from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator. Shimko was a quarterback at Rutgers under Greg Schiano whose career was cut short due to injury.

OL: Matt Applebaum was the OL coach at BC in 2020 and 2021, but then left for the Miami Dolphins in 2022. The Dolphins got better at blocking in his one season there, while the Eagles got a lot worse. Now that he’s back, they are a lot better again.

Those three guys, along with Castellanos, have changed the offensive fortunes for the Eagles. They still have a ways to go, but they are light years ahead of where they were last season.

Boston College Defensive Numbers

Here are BC’s defensive metrics…

DF+: No. 68
Available Yards: No. 49
Rushing D: No. 102
Passing D: No. 18
Total D: No. 47

The Eagles have struggled against the run, but they’ve been excellent against the pass. In particular, mobile quarterbacks have given them trouble…

Holy Cross’s Matthew Skula: 19 carries, 135 yards
Army’s Bryson Dailey: 14 carries, 99 yards
GT’s Matthew King: 10 carries, 150 yards
Syracuse’s Carlos Del Rio-Wilson: 12 carries, 67 yards

This one seems like a Kyron Drones/Bhayshal Tuten type of game. Not only does it attack the weakness of the Boston College defense, but it also employs the strength of the Virginia Tech offense. Meanwhile, the strength of BC’s defense is in coverage, while the weakness of the Tech offense is throwing from behind the sticks. A run-heavy offense, and basing the passing game off the run, would seem to be the right call this week. It would also help keep Castellanos off the field.

I know it seems like I write about a different good cornerback every week, and it’s no different this week. However, BC’s Elijah Jones (6-2, 184, Sr.) has had an outstanding season, and he’s one of the most experienced players the Hokies will face this season.

Jones has 2,736 snaps in his six-year career in Chestnut Hill. He’s having a great final season, with opponents completing just 14-of-41 (34.1%) of their passes against him. In nine games, PFF lists him as being responsible for just 207 passing yards allowed. He was a major part of BC’s win over Georgia Tech, as the Yellow Jackets targeted him seven times and completed only one pass.

Lack Of Havoc Plays for the Boston College D

BC has generally been solid on defense, but their lack of “havoc” plays isn’t ideal. “Havoc” plays are tackles for loss, sacks, and forced turnovers, and here’s where the Eagles rank in those three categories so far in 2023…

TFL: No. 132 out of 133
Sacks: No. 125
Turnovers: No.54

The Eagles are slightly above average in forcing turnovers, and one of the worst teams in the country in tackling the opponent behind the line of scrimmage. What Louisville did to the Virginia Tech defense last week, Boston College probably isn’t capable of doing.

This is a matchup advantage for the Hokies. We know that Tech’s offense can’t operate from behind the chains, but fortunately it’s unlikely that the Boston College defense will force them to do so. VT has a chance to be ahead of the chains this week, and at worst should be neutral with the chains. That makes me feel much better about this matchup.

Boston College Special Teams

Boston College has only attempted nine field goals this year. Liam Connor has made seven of them, with a long of 42, and both of his misses are from beyond 40. I’d say that the Eagles are solid here, but not spectacular.

The Hokies should get a chance to return some kickoffs in this one. Opponents are averaging 2.8 returns per game against the Eagles, which ranks No. 112 nationally. As a comparison, Tech’s opponents average one return per game, which ranks No. 19 nationally. That said, the Eagles’ coverage has been sound so far this season.

The Eagles punt it pretty short with two punters combining for a 38.4 yard team average. However, short punts normally prevent returns. That was the case at Louisville last week. BC has only allowed six returns so far this season, and the best way to stop Tucker Holloway is to make sure he has to fair catch it. BC has been doing a great job of that this season.

In the return game, Boston College ranks No. 127 in kickoff returns, so the Eagles aren’t likely to make an impact in that part of the game. Jaden Williams and Lewis Bond have combined to average 10.6 yards per punt return, but they are averaging just one return per game.

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Before we make our staff picks, what’s your prediction?

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Virginia Tech-Boston College Final Thoughts

Virginia Tech is struggling to stop the run against teams that are good at running it. Boston College is good at running it. The Hokies can’t win on the road under Brent Pry, and this game is in Chestnut Hill. Tech also struggles to win close games, while the Eagles have closed out a lot of close contests this season. All of those things point towards a Boston College victory on Saturday.

Yet at the same time, the Eagles don’t have the type of defense that keep offenses behind the chains, and that’s advantage Virginia Tech. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos also doesn’t appear to be healthy, and this offense isn’t nearly as effective if he’s not 100%, as the last two weeks have shown. He really struggled last week against Syracuse, otherwise the Eagles would have scored more than 17 points against a bad team that tossed them four interceptions. If that’s the best they can do against Syracuse with Castellanos hurt, then well, this just isn’t a very effective offense.

So there are reasons to pick the Hokies, and there are reasons to pick against them. Tech actually is 4-3 in its last seven trips to Boston, for what it’s worth. As much as we talk about it, it’s not nearly as bad a record as the Hokies have at places like Syracuse and Pitt.

If I picked Tech, I wouldn’t feel particularly good about it. Likewise, if I picked BC, I wouldn’t feel very good about it. Ultimately, I’m going with my guess that Castellanos isn’t as healthy as he was earlier in the season. If he’s been run into the ground, that offense will struggle, and I think the Hokies will win.

Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Boston College 17

Will Stewart’s Take: This is a tough one to pick. On the one hand, Virginia Tech has a track record under Brent Pry of losing road games (1-9). The Hokies don’t defend well against good rushing teams, and they’re playing a BC team that has averaged 265 rushing yards per game in their last four outings. That would be No. 3 in the nation if they had done it all year.

BC is 5-2 in one-score games this year, while the Hokies are 1-6 in one-score games under Pry, as Chris pointed out.

And it’s at …. yaaaawwwn, stretch, scratch … sleepy Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. At noon. No, it’s not rational, and data doesn’t even back it up as being as hellish a place to play as, say, Pittsburgh, but Hokie fans fear the nooner at BC.

Those are the signs that point towards a VT loss. But there is a path to victory, if the Hokies run the ball well against the Eagles and show a pulse defending the run. And how long can BC keep winning close games, the Hokies keep losing them, and VT playing poorly on the road? Don’t answer that.

I sometimes use the phrase “leap of faith” in these game previews when I pick the Hokies to win. Is it a leap of faith to pick VT to win this one? At least a little bit.

I just typed and deleted three lines where I was going to pick Boston College to win. I just can’t do it. I get that it makes logical sense, but I just can’t do it.

Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 24 (see what I did there?)

David Cunningham’s Take: I think this is going to be a very close game, and I actually feel like the Hokies are the better team in this matchup, but I’m going against the grain and taking the home dog. As Chris wrote, this is not the same Boston College team that Virginia Tech smothered last year. It’s much different, and Castellanos is at the center of that.

Tech has struggled to stop the run this year, which is BC’s forte. At the same time, it looked clueless offensively last week against a very good Louisville defense. Starting quickly, something the Hokies have only done once on the road this year (at Marshall), is the key here. The reason I’m picking the Eagles, though, is because I haven’t seen enough from Tech that proves to me it’ll be able to create its own energy and make the important plays.

While BC’s arguably played a worse schedule than VT this season, the game that stands out to me is that 31-29 loss at home to Florida State. This team can be competitive if you let it hang around, and I’m afraid that’s what the Hokies are going to do this week.

David’s Prediction: Boston College 20, Virginia Tech 17

Andy Bitter’s Take: These two teams are the same. I know the records aren’t the same, with BC rattling off five straight wins and Tech coming off its worst loss of the Pry era, but it’s really two bottom-of-the-middle-of-the-pack ACC teams that have looked bad against good competition this season and good (or decent) against bad competition. 

On paper, I should probably go with Boston College and its top-rated ACC rushing attack against a Hokies defense that’s had problems there, to say the least. Plus, this game is on the road, where Tech has struggled.

Sometimes you have to go with your gut, though, and since I consider this a pretty even matchup, I’ll go with what I would have to imagine is the more motivated team. The Hokies should be that after getting embarrassed last week. BC has reached the bowl eligibility threshold and you wonder if it’ll play like its back is against the wall anymore. Give me Tech in a close one. 

Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 22, Boston College 20

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Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Louisville Prediction Poll Results

Game Result: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 3

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2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game	Chris (9-4)	Andy (9-4)	David (9-4)	Will (8-5)	Result
ODU
Purdue
@Rutgers
@Marshall
Pittsburgh
@FSU
Wake Forest
Syracuse
@Louisville
@BC
NC State
@UVa
Tulane

2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (10-3) (record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game	Fan Poll	Result	Score
ODU	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 36, ODU 17
Purdue	Hokies Win by 1-10		Purdue 24, Hokies 17
@Rutgers	Rutgers Wins by 1-10		Rutgers 35, Hokies 16
@Marshall	Marshall Wins by 1-10		Marshall 24, Hokies 17
Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10		Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21
@Florida State	FSU Wins by 11+		FSU 39, Hokies 17
Wake Forest	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 30, Deacs 13
Syracuse	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 38, Orange 10
@Louisville	Cardinals Win by 11+		Cardinals 34, Hokies 3
@BC	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 48, Eagles 22
NC State	Hokies Win by 1-10		Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28
@Virginia	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 55, Hoos 17
Tulane	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 41, Green Wave 20