Virginia Tech vs. No. 5 FSU Preview: Hokies Face Biggest Challenge

• Virginia Tech vs. No. 5 Florida State: Saturday, October 7 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.
• Betting Line: FSU -24
• Roster cards: Click here
• Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
• Tallahassee weather: Click here
• Gameday information: Click here

A week off a 38-21 rout of Pitt in Lane Stadium, Virginia Tech (2-3, 1-0) hits the road again for a game against No. 5 Florida State (4-0, 2-0). The Seminoles represent the biggest challenge the Hokies will face all season and are coming off a bye.

Not only is FSU talented, but it has also been tested. It beat LSU 45-24 in Orlando to open the season and knocked off Clemson 31-24 on the road before an open week. The Tiger tamers also blew out a bad Southern Miss team 66-13. They got a scare at Boston College, holding on to win 31-29, but quarterback Jordan Travis was injured in that game, and Chestnut Hill isn’t an easy place to play for teams who are used to larger crowds. (Attendance was about 41,000 in BC’s 44,500-seat stadium for the Red Bandanna Game.)

Former Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is in his fourth season in charge in Tallahassee and is seeking his first ACC championship. With Clemson out of the way and sitting with two ACC losses already, Norvell’s squad has already overcome one difficult obstacle. It can’t afford to slip up at home against a Virginia Tech team that struggled up until last Saturday.

The FSU Offense vs. Tech’s Other Opponents

The Virginia Tech defense will face its biggest challenge of the season thus far on Saturday, and it’s not particularly close. Here’s how each offense on the schedule ranks in FEI offensive efficiency and F+ offense:

ODU: No. 95 FEI, No. 109 F+
Purdue: No. 31 FEI, No. 43 F+
Rutgers: No. 89 FEI, No. 80 F+
Marshall: No. 98 FEI, No. 92 F+
Pitt: No. 106 FEI, No. 81 F+
FSU: No. 14 FEI, No. 14 F+

Purdue’s offense has been good from an efficiency standpoint but hasn’t been able to squeeze anything but a 2-3 record out of it. The other four offenses Tech have been extremely limited. ODU, Rutgers and Marshall all had one thing in common: they couldn’t throw the football. Pitt is even worse.

Florida State is good across the board, and the numbers show that this will be the best offense on Tech’s schedule. Still, if you’ve watched FSU the last couple of weeks, you know the offense hasn’t been quite firing on all cylinders as it did in 2022. It’ll be looking to put it together against a Hokie defense that has struggled against the run this season and hasn’t been challenged through the air.

The Dominance of Jordan Travis

Jordan Travis is an outstanding quarterback. Though he got banged up against Boston College and hasn’t yet shown all of his running ability this year, his 2022 numbers were outstanding:

Passing: 226-of-353 (64%) for 3,214 yards, 9.1 yards per attempt, 24 TDs, 5 INTs
Rushing: 82 carries, 417 yards, 5.1 ypc, 7 TDs

Travis has continued to play at a high level in the passing game this season, though his rushing totals haven’t matched last year’s levels. Here is what he’s done through the first four games:

Passing: 74-of-121 (61.1%) for 1,028 yards, 8.5 yards per attempt, 10 TDs, 1 INT
Rushing: 23 carries, 94 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs

Travis is the most complete quarterback Virginia Tech will face this season, and he’s also surrounded by more talent than any quarterback the Hokies will play. He’s the type of quarterback that has given Tech trouble through the years, except he’s better and surrounded by better players.

Travis has had two favorite receivers through four games in 2023:

Keon Coleman (6-4, 215, Jr.): 17 catches, 256 yards, 15.1 avg., 6 TDs. Coleman had 58 receptions in 2022 at Michigan State.

Johnny Wilson (6-7, 237, r-Jr.) 16 catches, 303 yards, 18.9 avg. Last year, Wilson averaged just over 20 yards per reception.

Both of those guys have great size, and Wilson actually makes Coleman look small. So far, Virginia Tech’s pass defense has been dominant, but it’s faced a lot of really bad passing offenses with not-so-great receivers. We’ll find out what the Hokies are made of in the secondary after their date with Travis & Co. this Saturday.

FSU Looking To Return To Balance

Florida State was an extremely balanced offense last season:

Rushing yards per game: No. 14
Yards per carry: No. 8
Passing yards per game: No. 28
QB Rating: No. 14
Yards per attempt: No. 6

That hasn’t been the case so far in 2023:

Rushing yards per game: No. 81
Yards per carry: No. 47
Passing yards per game: No. 33
QB Rating: No. 18
Yards per attempt: No. 29

The passing game has still been there, but the running game has lagged behind. Part of that is probably due to the schedule — LSU and Clemson have been 50% of FSU’s games — but FSU still only had 22 rushing yards on 20 attempts against Clemson. Some of that could also be due to an injury to Travis. He’s played through it, but probably hasn’t been 100 percent.

All that said, things have the potential to get better quickly. Travis should be healthier coming off a bye week — Mike Norvell said as such on Monday — and one particular running back is looking to get back to his 2022 form.

Trey Benson Looks To Get Back On Track

Florida State running back Trey Benson (6-1, 223, r-Jr.) had an injury-plagued career before finally breaking out in 2022. He finished just 10 yards shy of 1,000 yards but averaged a dominant 6.4 yards per carry. He forced a whopping 79 missed tackles, which ranked No. 6 in the country. Moreover, the five backs ahead of him all had at least 227 carries while Benson had just 154. He was a tackle-breaking machine.

However, he hasn’t been as productive in the first four games of the season. He’s got 40 carries for 189 yards, and his yards-per-carry average is down to 4.7. He just hasn’t been able to get it going like he did in 2022. That said, he’s only received double-digit carries in two of FSU’s four games, a number that needs to go up. His numbers started to pile up towards the end of 2022 when the Seminoles finally started getting him more touches. Check out his final five games of the 2022 regular season:

GT: 18 carries, 111 yards, 6.2 ypc
Miami: 15 carries, 128 yards, 8.5 ypc, 2 TDs
Cuse: 18 carries, 163 yards, 9.1 ypc
Louisiana: 16 carries, 80 yards, 5.0 ypc, 1 TD
Florida: 20 carries, 111 yards, 5.6 ypc, 3 TDs
Total: 87 carries, 593 yards, 6.8 ypc, 6 TDs

Prior to those five games, he had just one game where he carried the ball more than 10 times. In fact, the ‘Noles lost three straight games before he started to get more carries, and just like that, they ended the regular season with five consecutive wins.

Virginia Tech completely shut down the Pitt rushing attack last week but struggled against the run in the first four games. The Panthers’ offensive line was beat up, and they don’t have a running back the caliber of Benson. Coming off the bye week with the help of some self-scouting and watching VT film, the ‘Noles should make an effort to reestablish the running game on Saturday.

If the reason for Benson’s lack of carries is due to injury, we might not see him get 15-20 touches on Saturday. He suffered a serious knee injury earlier in his career and it’s possible that he’s banged up now. Still, coming off a bye, you would expect him to be feeling better than he’s felt the last few weeks.

The Florida State Defense: Deceiving Numbers

I noted in my column after the Pitt victory that Florida State hasn’t put up good traditional defensive numbers this year, and that’s a true statement. Here they are:

Rushing: No. 59
Yards per carry: No. 57
Passing: No. 118
QB Rating: No. 41
Total defense: No. 98
Yards per play: No. 85

Those numbers aren’t very good. However, it’s worth noting that they came against LSU (No. 4 in total offense) and Clemson (No. 24). Also, despite giving up plenty of yards, the ‘Noles rank No. 49 nationally in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game.

The advanced stats paint a different picture of FSU’s defense, however:

FEI: No. 26
F+: No. 27
Available Yards: No. 64

The Seminoles have bent, but they haven’t broken, and they haven’t played to the level that they played last season as of yet.

Defensive Players To Watch

Here are some key players to keep an eye on:

DE Jared Verse (6-4, 260, r-Jr.): Verse is an Albany transfer, which shows once again that good players can be found anywhere. Last season, he had 17 tackles for loss and nine sacks for the Seminoles. He hasn’t been quite as productive in 2023, but you’ve got to figure that by the end of the season, he’ll finish with good numbers.

CB Fentrell Cypress II (6-0, 187, r-Jr.): The UVa transfer only allowed 18 pass completions last year and was considered to be one of the best cornerbacks in the country.

LB Kalen DeLoach (6-1, 212, r-Sr.): The senior linebacker has elevated his game in a big way this season. He leads the team in TFL (4.5) and sacks (3).

SCB Jarrian Jones (6-0, 191, r-Sr.): Though he’s not an every-down player, the slot cornerback is a very experienced guy who has been good for the Seminoles this season.

CB Renardo Green (6-0, 186, r-Sr.): Green has played over 1,400 snaps in his career. He and Cypress give the ‘Noles a talented duo on the outside.

Obviously, the Seminoles will put good athletes everywhere on defense, but I’d like to point out that they are also very experienced. 16 of their 22 players are third-year players or older, including eight redshirt seniors, three redshirt juniors and one junior.

Another note: 19 of their 22 defensive players in the two-deep have redshirted. In fact, the same logic applies to the offensive side of the ball where 24 of their 26 players in the two-deep have redshirted. (FSU lists 13 starters on offense to account for multiple personnel groupings.) Always be redshirting.

Florida State Special Teams

Oddly enough, FSU uses big wide receiver Keon Coleman (6-4, 215) as a punt returner. He’s got six returns for just 26 yards on the season. It’s not normal to see players as big as Coleman returning punts.

Kickoff returner Winston Wright, Jr. (5-10, 191, r-Sr.) is a West Virginia transfer and is FSU’s most dangerous player on special teams with two kickoff returns for touchdowns. Also watch for him out of the slot on offense. He has 133 career catches, though only one of his 63 catches in 2021 with the Mountaineers came against Virginia Tech.

Redshirt junior placekicker Ryan Fitzgerald has been inconsistent at times, such as his 12-of-20 mark last season, but he is a perfect 4-of-4 so far in 2023 with a long of 48. He’s not automatic, but he’s a pretty solid kicker overall.

Punter Alex Mastromanno (6-1, 235, r-Jr.) is the latest in the new fashion of Australian punters. He’s in his fourth year as the starter for the Seminoles, with 2020 not counting towards his eligibility. He’s had a good career.

Florida State’s coverage teams have been good this year, with opposing punt returners only managing three total returns, while opposing kickoff returners are averaging just 17.92 yards per return. Half of Fitzgerald’s kickoffs have gone for touchbacks.

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Before we make our staff picks, what’s your prediction?

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Virginia Tech-Florida State Final Thoughts

Virginia Tech’s defense hasn’t faced anything close to Florida State’s offense thus far, and while the Hokies have played a few opponents who have probably played better team defense than FSU has so far, they haven’t faced a team with anywhere close to the ‘Noles overall athleticism on that side of the ball. Without a doubt, this will be the Hokies’ biggest challenge of the season.

Despite the victory over Pitt, there are still many questions. The Tech defense improved against Pitt, but how much of that was because of the Hokies and how much of it was due to the ineptitude of the Panther offense? Likewise, the VT offense had its best game of the season. Is that a one-off? Or will things continue in the mold of the Pitt game?

The FSU game could answer those questions for us in a positive manner if the Hokies can make it competitive. However, a big loss wouldn’t necessarily answer them in a negative way because the ‘Noles are an extremely talented football team. We’ll likely need another game or two after FSU before we know for sure.

Which is the real Tech team? The one that beat Pitt just as badly as UNC did (17-point margin) or the team that looked pretty lost against Rutgers and Marshall, along with large chunks of the Purdue game? I’m not sure. The recency bias would lean towards the Pitt game, but I need to see them do it more than once before I can block out those earlier performances. But like I said, this may not be the week to judge.

Chris’s Prediction: Florida State 38, Virginia Tech 20

Will Stewart’s Take:  I drove down to Tallahassee in 2018 with my good friend Richie Davis, and we witnessed arguably the high-water mark of Justin Fuente’s tenure at Virginia Tech. Jimbo Fisher had left for Texas A&M and FSU replaced him with Willie Taggart and his “Lethal Simplicity” offense. The No. 20 Hokies visited the No. 19 ‘Noles on Labor Day night and the nation watched Tech crush FSU 24-3. At that point, Fuente was 20-8 at Virginia Tech and the sky was the limit.

That was just five years ago, but it seems like longer. I had forgotten that game was such an even matchup rankings-wise. This time around? Not so much.

FSU is favored by about 24 points. At least two threads were started on the message boards this week that asked, assuming a loss, what does success look like for VT this weekend?

For me, the answer is simple: it looks a lot like the Pitt game — win or lose — with fewer penalties committed by the Hokies. And maybe don’t give up a fumble for a TD. Look like you have a plan, execute it well and if it leads to a loss, it’s just because the other team had more talent.

If you’re looking for a win, and of course it could happen, that would be a historic day in Virginia Tech football. The Hokies have never beaten a top-five team on the road.

Will’s Prediction: Florida State 38, Virginia Tech 20 (LOL, same as Chris)

David Cunningham’s Take: The Hokies sure have a challenge on their hands on Saturday in Tallahassee. They looked better against Pitt, but I don’t think we’ll know if that was a one-off or the real thing until the team’s open week in two weeks. Now, Florida State awaits. That’s not an easy position to be in, but I think it’s important Virginia Tech focuses on one main goal: improvement.

This is a fairly young team. Across the board, Tech only has five scholarship players, all of which are on the defensive side of the ball, that can’t return in 2024 — Norell Pollard, Mario Kendricks, Pheldarius Payne, Alan Tisdale, Nasir Peoples. The two offensive players who couldn’t come back, Ali Jennings and Nick Gallo, could both medically redshirt now. The point is that this is a team that has the potential to be together for some time and continue to grow, so stick with the principles and continue to drill your philosophies. Feed the hot hand, run the ball, put Kyron Drones in good positions, etc.

I don’t expect the Hokies to win on Saturday, but if fans can watch this game and see growth, that’s a win in my book. The rest of the games this year will be winnable; use this as a stepping stone to continue to learn about yourselves and discover things that will come in handy in the second half of the year. 

Tech is 1-32 all-time against top-five foes; the lone win was vs. No. 2 Miami in Blacksburg in 2003. That doesn’t bode well. Saturday will be a raucous environment against a team with much more talent. I think Tech can keep it somewhat respectable, but I expect it to be a long afternoon.

David’s Prediction: Florida State 41, Virginia Tech 17

Andy Bitter’s Take: A week ago, I wouldn’t have liked the Hokies’ chances of staying within a 24-point line, but the offense showed some capabilities to move the ball and score against Pitt, and Florida State’s defense, while talented, has had lapses that’s let teams move the ball this year. 

That said, while I like Tech’s chances to cover, I don’t like its chances to be in any position to win. These programs are in different spots right now, with Norvell having had a few years to right the ship, bringing in both his own recruits and impact transfers. This FSU passing game will challenge Tech’s corners like they haven’t been challenged before, and while the Hokies bowed up against the run against Pitt, it’ll be hard to duplicate that against a much better Seminoles offense.

I think FSU gets up by a comfortable margin and sort of kicks it into cruise control, like it did against Boston College. That might be enough for the Hokies to keep it closer than the 24-point line, but I don’t expect this one to be all too competitive.

Andy’s Prediction: Florida State 36, Virginia Tech 20

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Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Pitt Prediction Poll Results

Game Result: Virginia Tech 38, Pitt 21

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2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game	Chris (9-4)	Andy (9-4)	David (9-4)	Will (8-5)	Result
ODU
Purdue
@Rutgers
@Marshall
Pittsburgh
@FSU
Wake Forest
Syracuse
@Louisville
@BC
NC State
@UVa
Tulane

2023 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (10-3) (record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game	Fan Poll	Result	Score
ODU	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 36, ODU 17
Purdue	Hokies Win by 1-10		Purdue 24, Hokies 17
@Rutgers	Rutgers Wins by 1-10		Rutgers 35, Hokies 16
@Marshall	Marshall Wins by 1-10		Marshall 24, Hokies 17
Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10		Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21
@Florida State	FSU Wins by 11+		FSU 39, Hokies 17
Wake Forest	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 30, Deacs 13
Syracuse	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 38, Orange 10
@Louisville	Cardinals Win by 11+		Cardinals 34, Hokies 3
@BC	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 48, Eagles 22
NC State	Hokies Win by 1-10		Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28
@Virginia	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 55, Hoos 17
Tulane	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 41, Green Wave 20