Game Preview: Virginia Tech Hosts New-Look Purdue

• Virginia Tech vs. Purdue: Saturday, September 9, Noon ET, ESPN2
• Betting Line: VT -3
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Virginia Tech is back in action in Lane Stadium this Saturday when it hosts the Purdue Boilermakers at noon on ESPN2. Purdue is coming off a tough 39-35 home loss to Fresno State, and the defending Big Ten West Champions went through an offseason of major transition.

Head coach Jeff Brohm departed to become the head coach of Louisville, where he picked up his first win against Georgia Tech last week. To top it off, Purdue lost quarterback Aidan O’Connell to the NFL (fourth round), first-team All-Big Ten receiver Charlie Jones (another fourth round pick) and tight end Payne Durham (fifth round pick). Throw in two new coordinators with two new schemes, not to mention a switch to a 3-4 defense, and there has been a lot of upheaval in West Lafayette.

The loss to Fresno State isn’t too surprising. The Bulldogs are coached by Jeff Tedford (you might remember him as the person who coached some guy named Aaron Rodgers against the Hokies in the 2003 Insight Bowl) and they are a solid, stable program with a 37-18 record in Tedford’s tenure. That was key when matched up against Purdue’s recent instability.

Purdue’s new coach is 37-year-old Ryan Walters, who previously served as the defensive coordinator at Illinois and Missouri. His 2022 defense at Illinois was dominant, finishing No. 2 nationally in scoring defense, No. 3 in total defense, No. 3 in yards per play and No. 1 in both interceptions and turnovers. He’s also the former cornerbacks coach at Memphis under Justin Fuente before leaving to join Barry Odom’s staff at Missouri. (Odom was Fuente’s DC, if you recall.)

Walters has a veteran defensive coordinator in Kevin Kane, who was an All-Big 12 linebacker for Kansas. After serving as a graduate assistant at Wisconsin, he has been a defensive coordinator at SMU and Northern Illinois. He was also on Walters’ defensive staff at Illinois, where he helped shape one of the nation’s best defenses.

Graham Harrell is the offensive coordinator, and the former Texas Tech quarterback will be pretty familiar with Virginia Tech’s personnel and scheme after serving as the offensive coordinator at West Virginia last season. He also served as the offensive coordinator at USC and North Texas, so he’s got plenty of experience running offenses and calling plays.

Though Walters is an inexperienced head coach, he hired two veteran coordinators to lean on. However, there has been so much change in the Purdue program since the end of last season that it would have been difficult to expect them to hit the ground running.

Purdue Quarterback Hudson Card

Hudson Card (6-3, 210, r-Jr.) got experience at Texas but was never able to lock down the starting position. As a result, he never attempted more than 108 passes in a season. However, the numbers that he did have were efficient: 127-of-194 (65.5%) for 1,523 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions.

In his first game as a Boilermaker, Card was 17-of-30 for 254 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. However, except for an 84-yard pass to Deion Burks (5-11, 195, r-So.), the offense wasn’t able to consistently move the football. Was that first game jitters due to a new scheme or are there issues with the passing game as a whole? It’s too early to tell.

What I can tell you is that Card isn’t noted for his running ability. With the complete realization that this will be the kiss of death for the Virginia Tech defense, let me note Card’s career rushing numbers: 53 carries, 101 yards, 1.9 yards per carry. 21 of those 53 carries have been scrambles, and when you factor in the sacks, his coaches haven’t been confident enough in his legs to call very many designed runs. According to PFF, he has run the ball on just 15 designed runs in 23 career games. If he manages to have a big game on the ground this Saturday, well… blame me.

In the passing game, Card has a career Turnover Worthy Play percentage of 3.2%, so he does a solid job of taking care of the football. However, his career Big Time Throw percentage of 1.6% shows that he’s better at keeping it simple. (For comparison, Grant Wells is at 5.6% for his career). If the Hokies don’t allow Boilermaker receivers to run wide open, I think Card will have a difficult time making the tough throws that will sustain drives.

Card’s top receiver to watch is Burks, who had four catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns last week. He can line up both inside and outside but will likely spend most of his time as an outside receiver.

The Purdue Running Game

If the Boilermakers can’t run the football, I don’t see them having a particularly successful day offensively in Lane Stadium. They struggled to run it last week against Fresno State, gaining 109 yards on the ground on 30 carries and averaging just 3.6 yards per carry in the process.

Purdue’s top running back is Derrick Mockobee (6-0, 200, r-So.). He had 60 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries (3.8 ypc) last week, though he’s capable of better production. As a freshman in 2022, he led the Boilermakers in rushing. Despite starting only seven games, he finished with 968 yards, nine touchdowns, and averaged five yards per carry.

After Mockobee, Purdue doesn’t have much depth. The backup seems to be Dylan Downing, who was a backup at UNLV last season. In fact, the aforementioned Hudson Card was actually Purdue’s second-leading rusher last week with 29 yards. Considering his career numbers, that probably says more about Purdue’s options at running back after Mockobee than it says about Card.

Up front, right tackle Marcus Mbow (6-5, 305, r-So.) appears to be Purdue’s best player. He started as a redshirt freshman a year ago and was the best tackle on the team. The other tackle, Mahamane Moussa (6-4, 310, r-So.), was very average a year ago.

The Purdue Offensive Line

Three of Purdue’s starters on the offensive line came from the transfer portal in the offseason:

• C Austin Johnson (6-4, 305, r-Jr.): Colorado. Performed poorly for the Buffs, and had another bad game last week.
• LG Preston Nichols (6-2, 290, r-Sr.): Played well in three years at Charleston Southern, and played well again last year at UNLV.
• RG Jalen Grant (6-3, 300, Sr.): Grant started for Scot Loeffler for two seasons at Bowling Green, but he did not stand out.

One thing to keep an eye on is the center position. Purdue lists three co-starters at this position, but only Johnson played in Week 1. Josh Kaltenberger (6-5, 300, r-Jr.) started three games at this position last year and missed last week’s game with an injury. Ryan Walters said on Tuesday that he expects Kaltenberger to return this weekend if his rehab goes well. However, his performances in 260 snaps last season were not spectacular at 57.4 overall. Whether or not he plays this weekend, I think the Virginia Tech defensive line will have an advantage, particularly on the interior.

The Purdue Defensive Front

While the Boilermaker defense is technically a 3-4, considering the size of their outside linebackers, it might be more accurate to think of it as a 5-2 with the outside linebackers playing defensive end, and the three defensive linemen basically playing defensive tackle. Take a look at the size of those five players…

OLB Kydran Jenkins (6-1, 260, Sr.)
DL Malik Langham (6-4, 310, r-Sr.)
DL Cole Brevard (6-3, 335, r-Jr.)
DL Isaiah Nichols (6-3, 300, r-Sr.)
OLB Nic Scourton (6-4, 280, So.)

That’s a massive group, and behind them are inside linebackers OC Brothers (6-2, 245, r-Sr.) and Yanni Karlaftis (6-3, 235, r-So.). They are an experienced front seven as well, with all but Scourton being third-year players or older. Scourton is the guy to keep an eye on from a pass-rushing perspective after having five pressures against Fresno State.

Last week, Virginia Tech failed to establish a running game against a smallish Old Dominion defense. The Hokies had 109 rushing yards (No. 97 nationally) and averaged just 2.53 yards per carry (No. 111) despite not being sacked the entire game. This week they’ll be facing a much bigger, much stronger, and much more talented defensive front.

Though the Purdue defense allowed 39 points, most of the damage came through the air as the Boilermakers allowed just 3.14 yards per carry. Still, Fresno State was able to be maintain enough of a threat on the ground to keep the Purdue defense wary, because starting running back Elijah Gilliam managed to finish with 94 yards on 20 carries with a long of 22 yards. That was enough to keep the Purdue defense honest.

Still, this represents a much more significant challenge than the Old Dominion front did last week, and the Hokies will have to do a lot better in the run game both blocking and coaching.  

The Purdue Pass Defense

With so many big guys on defense, it’s natural to expect the Boilermakers to be a little bit susceptible against the pass. Last week, they were lit up by Bulldog quarterback Mike Keene, who was 31-of-44 for 366 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.

Cornerback Marquis Wilson (5-11, 185, r-Sr.) is a transfer from Penn State who played for Brent Pry. He was good against Fresno State, allowing just 17 yards receiving. However, much of the rest of the defense didn’t perform well, and the Boilermakers appear vulnerable against the pass at the other cornerback position, safety, and some of the linebackers as well.

One name you may recognize is Cam Allen (6-1, 195, r-Sr.), who plays the slot corner role for the Boilermakers. He attended Graham High School in Bluefield. He’s had an up-and-down career in West Lafayette, and last week was one of his down performances as he was beaten five times for 84 yards.

In fact, Fresno State slot receiver Erik Brooks (5-7, 171) torched the Purdue defense to the tune of nine catches for 170 yards (18.9 avg) and two touchdowns. He’s a senior who never had more than 37 catches in a season and never had a 100-yard receiving game in his career until last week, which shows you how vulnerable the Boilermakers appear to be in the secondary. With Brooks being so dominant out of the slot, watch Virginia Tech’s Jaylin Lane this week.

True freshman safety Dillon Thienman (6-0, 205) got 78 snaps against Fresno State and was arguably Purdue’s best player in the secondary not named Marquis Wilson. Safety Sanoussi Kane (6-0, 215, Sr.) struggled, and he’s a guy who also struggled last year against the pass last season. Cornerback Markevious Brown (5-11, 180, Jr.) also had a sub-par performance last week after performing at a below average level in limited action in his two previous seasons at Ole Miss.

I think it’s fair to say that the Purdue defense is more attackable through the air than on the ground, at least for this Virginia Tech offense. However, it’s also fair to note that the Boilermakers faced a very good passing offense last week. Nobody ever accused Jeff Tedford of not being able to devise a good passing game scheme.

Special Teams

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (6-1, 210, r-Sr.) took a kickoff back 98 yards for a touchdown last week against Fresno State, and that’s one of the plays that kept Purdue in the game despite them being thrashed in the traditional stats. TJ Sheffield (5-11, 190, r-Sr.) had a 29-yard punt return to set up another touchdown on a short 17-yard drive.

It was tough for Purdue to sustain drives against Fresno State, so it’s very important that the Hokies don’t allow them to make up for it with big plays on special teams. Tech was good at covering kicks and punts last week, but this one will be a different challenge.

Kicker Ben Freehill is a transfer from Oklahoma State, and he’s in his third season at Purdue. However, he has attempted just one career field goal. That came last week, from 43 yards, and he missed. He also missed an extra point early in his career for the Cowboys. Punter Jack Ansell enters his third season as a starter, and he should be solid.

Purdue didn’t allow any punt return yards last week, and that’s coming off a season where it allowed only 4.6 yards per return. It’ll provide a much sterner test for Jaylin Lane and Tucker Holloway than Old Dominion.

Final Thoughts

Virginia Tech dispatched ODU 36-19 while Purdue lost at home to Fresno State 39-35. On paper, it sounds like the Hokies should take care of business this week. However, I’ve got to point out that the Bulldogs are a much better team than the Monarchs. They aren’t even in the same stratosphere from a talent perspective, and Tedford has a solid career record of 119-75 with 11 bowl appearances. Tech’s game with ODU was also close in the third quarter until those turnovers, and turnovers aren’t something that you can depend on every week.

While the Purdue defense struggled against the pass last week, there was a semblance of balance from the Fresno State offense. Twelve games into the tenure of Tyler Bowen, I haven’t seen anything yet to show me that the Hokies can strike such a balance offensively. They averaged 2.53 yards per carry against an ODU defense that allowed 4.18 yards per carry against non-P5 opponents in 2022. As much as I’d like to see it, I don’t see the Hokies breaking 30 for the second straight week, and it probably wouldn’t be fair to expect them to do so after not doing it at all in 2022.

The good thing here is that Purdue’s game with Fresno State probably wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. The Boilermakers got a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, a good punt return set up a 17-yard drive for a touchdown, and they also hit an 84-yard touchdown pass. They weren’t able to maintain drives against the Bulldog defense, and check out these key stats from the game:

• First downs: 27-19 in favor of Fresno State
• Total yards: 487 to 363 in favor of Fresno State
• Third downs: 11 of 17 for Fresno State, 2 of 12 for Purdue
• Time of Possession: 36:22 to 23:38 in favor of Fresno State

If the Hokies can limit Purdue on special teams and not allow a game-changing play on offense, I don’t think the Boilermakers will score very much. Then again, I’m not expecting Virginia Tech to put up Fresno State numbers, either.  I think this one will be somewhat of a rock fight.

Ultimately this game appears to be between two teams who struggle to run the football, and who will probably need to generate big plays in the passing game to win. Assuming there’s no huge special teams play that decides things, and assuming turnover margin isn’t slanted in one team’s direction, that probably means the team with the best group of defensive backs will win. That’s Virginia Tech.

Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Purdue 20

Will Stewart’s Take:  Get a load of how similar the passing and rushing numbers were for these two teams last week:

No real point there, I just found it interesting.

Things that concern me in this game are Purdue’s run defense and the Boilermakers’ experience advantage on their DL versus Virginia Tech’s OL. Hokies offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen is under the microscope this season, and an anemic running performance for the second week in a row will be an inauspicious start. If the running game does struggle, fans will be looking for adjustments, something that didn’t happen last week.

Defensively, per Brandon Patterson’s excellent analysis, the Hokies keyed to stop the pass against ODU and didn’t play much man coverage with a loaded box. We’ll also see if that changes this week.

This is an out-of-conference toss-up game that will go a long way towards determining if the Hokies can return to a bowl game this season. A 3-1 or 4-0 start in OOC play will play a huge role in winning at least six games. A 2-2 or worse start makes it a tough road.

In an early-season toss-up game, I usually make the homer pick.

Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Purdue 17

David Cunningham’s Take: Purdue is trying to find its way with a new head coach and didn’t get off to a hot start last week in its loss to Fresno State. Now it ventures to Blacksburg to play a Virginia Tech team that has a little bit of momentum.

I think this is a good spot for the Hokies. Their strengths align with Purdue’s weaknesses pretty well. Tech has one of the better cornerback groups in the ACC in Dorian Strong, Mansoor Delane and Derrick Canteen, and I’m interested to see how they hold up in coverage this week. I’d expect pretty well, which would put the Hokies on the right track.

My bigger questions are offensively for the Hokies and that huge defensive front of Purdue that Chris highlighted. Can Tech establish the run? It didn’t have much success at all against Old Dominion, though Grant Wells hit his stride in the passing game.

I think Wells will have another good day against this group of Purdue defensive backs, but neither team being able to run the ball consistently will make this one look like a stalemate. I’m expecting a close game that Tech pulls away in towards the end. Special teams and field position will be key in this one, and one turnover can change the outcome of the game.

David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Purdue 20

Andy Bitter’s Take: Sure, Virginia Tech wasn’t the polished version that you’d like to see in a season opener, but a lot more went right this time around than last year. There was an actual passing game to speak of. Protection was good. The defense forced three turnovers. Starting field position drastically favored the Hokies. A play here or there and the Hokies realistically could have scored 50 points.

So I was perhaps a little more bullish on the Hokies’ performance in the opener than others. Sure, the ground game struggled, and it might do so again against a pretty big Purdue front, but Tech showed it can beat you in other ways this season, with a passing attack that has some formidable weapons and even still, probably left some plays on the field last week.

The Hokies’ rush defense struggles in the opener was worrisome, though based on the opener, Purdue might not be the team to exploit that. The Boilermakers will definitely offer more of a test in the air, where Tech was basically unchallenged in the opener. We’ll see how much the weather factors into both teams being able to throw the ball, but that might be their best course of action to move the ball.

I like the Hokies in this one. It feels like last week was a confidence-building win that left the team unsatisfied in a lot of areas, which is really the perfect kind of opener. Nobody’s heads are getting too big after that one, and I think Tech will do enough to beat a Purdue team that is still figuring out what it is under a new coach.

Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Purdue 23

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