With 19 days until Selection Sunday, Virginia Tech men’s basketball is on the NCAA Tournament bubble for the first time since the Seth Greenberg era.
It’s late February, and the Hokies are 16-11, and 8-8 in the ACC. Overall, that’s just one win better than Mike Young’s first team (15-12, 6-10 ACC) through 27 games, though Tech has two more league victories than that team.
But for the last six seasons, Tech had something really good going. The program has made the last four NCAA Tournaments, a school record.
That run of NCAA appearances is in jeopardy, and it has been since January. But it’s been a very strange season, one where Tech’s result depends on late game runs.
The Hokies have a win vs. Notre Dame, one of four ACC losses for the Irish, and Tech played well at home against Miami but fell on a halfcourt heave. Two losses against North Carolina came by a combined 18 points, but VT trailed by less than five points with six minutes to go in each contest.
Those are three of the ACC’s top four teams at the moment. Virginia Tech led Duke, who is currently in first, until the 15-minute mark in the second half. Wake Forest, currently in fifth, blew Tech out, but the Hokies split with UVa (sixth place) and beat Syracuse (seventh).
So where did everything go wrong? Two dates – Jan. 4 and Jan. 29 – paint a good picture, though they do not tell the entire story.
Virginia Tech’s two Quadrant 3 losses, vs. NC State and at Boston College, ironically were both 68-63. In both games, Tech led or the game was tied in the final five minutes. But lack of execution down the stretch – 5-of-14 shooting, 1-of-7 from three, three turnovers and 13 offensive rebounds allowed in those two losses – has defined the season for VT.
If the Hokies win those two games, they are 12-0 in Quadrant 3 and 4 games while sitting at 18-9, 10-6. They’d only be in seventh in the conference, just one spot higher, but they wouldn’t have any deep gashes in their resume.
Instead, everyone is asking the question, ‘what will it take for Virginia Tech to reach the NCAA Tournament?’
The simple answer is winning. Georgia Tech, Louisville and Clemson are must-wins. Stealing a game at Miami, where the Hokies won in overtime last season, would be a boost. But it’s ultimately going to come down to the ACC Tournament.
Right now, the Hokies would be the No. 8 seed. The most favorable matchup for them would be getting the No. 7 seed and going through Notre Dame, who has Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Pitt left. The Irish should end up as the No. 2 seed, unless Duke loses twice, which is possible.
So, how does Tech get the No. 7 seed? Win, and hope Syracuse (currently seventh) can’t run the gauntlet of Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina and Miami. Another quadrant one win – Duke, Wake Forest and North Carolina currently qualify on a neutral floor (NET 1-50) – would also help.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Tech as the 78th team in terms of seeding at the moment. That’s two spots outside of the “Next Four Out.”
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 22, 2022
Teams in front are bound to lose between now and March 13, and all the Hokies can do is win and hope the committee finds their body of work favorable. The challenge will be finding that consistency in Brooklyn, and may require shades of UConn in 2011, who won 11 games in 27 days.
The magic number for Tech might be 21 wins, five more from its current total, though it depends on which form those victories take.
Closing out the ACC regular season 4-0 is great, but the only win that really would matter is at Miami. Clemson would be a Quadrant 2 win, but lack of Quadrant 1 wins – something Chris Coleman wrote about a few weeks ago – will likely end up being the difference. Loses to NC State and Boston College don’t help the cause, but Tech isn’t making the NCAA Tournament as a middle-of-the-pack ACC team with no quality wins.
That’s where luck plays a part in the draw, too. As previously mentioned, the No. 7 seed would be ideal. Tech beat Notre Dame earlier in the year and has won three straight against Mike Brey & Co., and the Hokies would have an opportunity to warm up against Georgia Tech or Pitt. Then there could be a possible rematch with North Carolina, who Young & Co. could’ve beaten had they shot the ball better.
Timely victories and the roll of the dice are both going to factor into this final stretch for Virginia Tech. Three of the four games are on the road, and losing isn’t an option.
Justyn Mutts spoke of desperation and how the team played with its back against the wall after the win over Syracuse. At that point, the Hokies had won five straight games.
It’s going to take another one of those runs to earn a NCAA Tournament appearance.
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“As previously mentioned, the No. 7 seed would be ideal.”
Tech should be favored in three of their final four games, while Syracuse goes to UNC and ND, and is at home to Duke and Miami. Tech could certainly wind up in the 7 seed.
Forgive my ignorance, but isn’t the NET ranking the big factor? Where are we there?
I think VT has to show everything before the ACC Tournament. I feel like we get in these discussions about how many do you need to win in the conference tournament. I believe the committee already has their 68 before the tournaments start and only change in case someone outside the 68 win their conference tournament. I think conference tournaments affect seeding a little – especially with 1 seeds. However, I feel like VT’s future is the same whether they lose their 1st match-up in the tourney, or they win 2 and lose. Most of my comments are based on past history with other at-large teams on the bubble.
Yes, this year has been a disappointment However we have an above average coach, with outstanding integrity, and local ties.
Tech is competitive against top tier teams in ACC. Incoming freshmen class looks like it has potential.
So let’s be reasonable and understand we have a solid program and compared to VT BB history over last 25-30 yrs the program is in great shape. Let’s appreciate Coach and what he brings to the program.
Next year is a huge question mark. We very well may be on the downward portion of a middle level program sinusoidal curve.
We have multiple roster spots open. The portal changes things drastically from years past. Look at Wake Forest as the perfect example. You’re right…next year is a question mark but you can make significant jumps in the summer these days.
The ACC is really bad this year and we should have excelled in it. We also lost OOC games we could not afford to do, against non P5 conference opponents.
This is how you don’t make the NCAA tournament.
Totally agree with Jethro- With the ACC down this year, and the talent on the team, we should be firmly in the NCAA. Reminds me of another VT sport.
Desperosity.
Is the tournament ever going back to Greensboro?
VT will have a tough time even if they win out and take two in the ACC tournament – just did not win enough meaningful games over the course of the season. NIT looks like the destination this year – which if they make a good run could be helpful to the program.
The home losses to UNC and NCSU, ultimately will keep us out.
I think ultimately the Mike Young hire will shake out on the negative side as some thought. In terms of underperforming this year and trying to compete NEXT YEAR with a roster comprised of lower level ACC talent.
-100
-1,000 MY is a good coach and recruiting is trending in the right direction.
Maybe , but lower level ACC talent can be reversed with a couple of transfer portal upper level ACC talent players. Love it or hate it (I hate it, the TP is a wild card and a game changer ) . It giveth and it taketh away. Next years rooster is probably not totally known at this time.
What is known is that Murphy has been killing us all year. Replace him with a real ACC player and we’re safely in the tournament.
May I ask how long is “ultimately” in your post? Next year? 5 years, 10? Of course it’s your opinion and you are entitled to it, just trying to get an idea and what the parameters you considering.
I am a bit on the other side, CMY has been a good coach everywhere he has been and I suspect he will be better than most of his colleagues in the ACC over the next decade. Maybe not “elite”, but to expect him to be able to recruit elite talent to VT basketball is not realistic IMHO. My guess we will either win the ACC or scare the life out the team that does sometime in the next 5 years, and make a sweet 16, maybe elite 8 in the next decade. That is my parameter.
My parameter starts with making the ACC tournament field. We play in the ACC, so CMY will have to recruit talent to get his team to the NCAA tournament while playing in the ACC. So, hopefully that will be often enough. This is looking like the first year that won’t be reached, at least by just looking at our odds from this point forward.
He’s a very fine X’s and O’s coach. He did a good job holding his team together this year after a 2-7 start. I think that’s a positive. The question remains will he be a good enough recruiter of talent. He hasn’t been here long enough yet to say.
Love the positivity
Unfortunately, the answer to the question is, “Next year.”
But you don’t have to necessarily depend on those two – others have stepped up. They are playing well in many aspects of their game that was not present earlier. As the article indicated, they could have won but for the terrible shooting last Saturday. They just have to win these games, which are winnable. Well they – we will see.
Odds are low when you have to depend on Storm and Naheem to knock down shots. Check their percentages in games we have lost
On the flip side, check out the percentages in games we have won. Let’s take it a game at a time and see where we end up once the season is over. Hopefully we’ll shoot well enough to win, but we’ll need to play strong defense and rebound the damn ball on the defensive glass. That should carry us to wins against the teams that are struggling